Sixers 2015-16 Win Total: Over or Under?

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

Last week, the powers that be in the deserts of Nevada released the long-awaited NBA win totals for the upcoming 2015-16 season. As expected, the Sixers are projected to have the fewest wins in the league. However, after a couple years down in the teens, this year, they’re expected to achieve a win total in the 20’s. Break out the champagne!

2015-16 NBA regulars season wins

Bucks 43.5
Wolves 25.5
Pelicans 47.5
Knicks 31.5
Thunder 57.5
Magic 32.5
76ers 21.5
Suns 36.5
Blazers 26.5

— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) September 29, 2015

In what’s now become an annual tradition, I will estimate the amount of wins I think the Sixers will have in order to predict whether they go over or under that year’s total. Thus far, I am a lofty 2-0, correctly predicting the over in both 2013 and 2014. When it comes to Sixers’ win totals, I’m basically the Hangover’s Alan at the blackjack table. Act accordingly.

As usual, I’ll be grouping games down by home/away and whether each team is rested. Hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

2014-15 saw the Sixers go 12-29 at home and 6-35 on the road. In 2013-14, they were more evenly balanced, going 10-31 at home and 9-32 on the road. One of the things going against the Sixers improving this season is their imbalanced schedule; the Sixers have to play 19 back-to-backs, but they play opponents on the second night of a back-to-back just 13 times. Hopefully, the scheduling gods reverse that when the team is ready to start truly caring about winning games.

Home Games – Both Teams Rested (26)

10/30 vs. UTA, 11/2 vs. CLE, 11/9 vs. CHI, 11/16 vs. DAL, 11/18 vs. IND, 12/1 vs. LAL, 12/5 vs. DEN, 12/7 vs. SAS, 12/18 vs. NYK, 12/22 vs. MEM, 1/4 vs. MIN, 1/7 vs. ATL, 1/14 vs. CHI, 1/26 vs. PHO, 1/30 vs. GSW, 2/3 vs. ATL, 2/10 vs. SAC, 2/23 vs. ORL, 2/26 vs. WAS, 3/9 vs. HOU, 3/11 vs. BKN, 3/20 vs. BOS, 3/29 vs. CHA, 4/5 vs. NOH, 4/8 vs. NYK, 4/10 vs. MIL

Rough start to the season for the Sixers at home, with their first winnable game among this group coming against the Mavericks (I think Utah will be a very tough test for them). This group’s schedule largely remains difficult until mid-March when the Sixers finally see a stretch of winnable games against Brooklyn, Boston, Charlotte, New York, and Milwaukee.

Wins: 7; Running Total: 7-19

Home Games – Sixers Rested, Opponent on B2B (8)

11/11 vs. TOR, 1/9 vs. TOR, 1/16 vs. POR, 1/23 vs. BOS, 2/8 vs. LAC, 3/2 vs. CHA, 3/4 vs. MIA, 3/17 vs. WAS

Theoretically, this is when games are set up the best for Sixers wins, with their having both the rest and locational advantages. However, it’s a competitive group of opponents, with only Portland not expected to at least be fighting for a playoff spot. I’ll be somewhat conservative and go 3-5 here.

Wins: 3; Running Total: 10-24

Home Games – Sixers on B2B, Opponent Rested (4)

12/11 vs. DET, 1/10 vs. CLE, 3/18 vs. OKC, 4/2 vs. IND

The games against the Cavaliers and Thunder look like sure losses against rested opponents, but given the Sixers play these games at ‘the Center’, they can snag one of the other two contests.

Wins: 1; Running Total: 11-27

Home Games – Both Teams on B2B (3)

11/7 vs. ORL, 2/6 vs. BKN, 3/12 vs. DET

Both sides will be on tired legs, but each of these games are pretty winnable. I think they actually snag a couple wins here, hopefully one of them silencing Stan Van Gundy again.

Wins: 2; Running Total: 13-28

Road Games – Both Teams Rested (28)

10/28 @ BOS, 11/4 @ MIL, 11/6 @ CLE, 11/13 @ OKC, 11/20 @ CHA, 11/23 @ MIN, 11/27 @ HOU, 11/29 @ MEM, 12/10 @ BKN, 12/13 @ TOR, 12/16 @ ATL, 12/20 @ CLE, 12/26 @ PHO, 12/28 @ UTA, 12/30 @ SAC, 1/1 @ LAL, 1/18 @ NYK, 1/20 @ ORL, 2/5 @ WAS, 2/19 @ NOH, 2/21 @ DAL, 2/28 @ ORL, 3/6 @ MIA, 3/15 @ BKN, 3/23 @ DEN, 3/26 @ POR, 4/1 @ CHA, 4/12 @ TOR

Those games in late March against the Nuggets and Blazers could go a long way toward deciding lottery positioning. You have to hate the games when you’re half-rooting for the Sixers to lose for the good of the franchise long-term. Winning about a quarter of the games in this group overall would represent a small uptick over the Sixers’ road record during the past couple years.

Wins: 7; Running Total: 20-49

Road Games – Sixers Rested, Opponent on B2B (1)

11/25 @ BOS

With the Celtics playing in Atlanta the night before, the Sixers should have the upper hand over their old rival, even in the Garden.

Wins: 1; Running Total: 21-49

Road Games – Sixers on B2B, Opponent Rested (11)

11/14 @ SAS, 11/21 @ MIA, 12/2 @ NYK, 12/14 @ CHI, 12/23 @ MIL, 1/2 @ LAC, 1/27 @ DET, 2/24 @ DET, 3/21 @ IND, 3/27 @ GSW, 4/13 @ CHI

The combination of the rest disadvantage and what’s an extremely difficult slate of opponents makes this the toughest group on this list. A win in one of the Pistons games and another stray victory somewhere else might be the best the Sixers could hope for here.

Wins: 2; Running Total: 23-58

Road Games – Both Teams on B2B (1)

2/29 @ WAS

John Wall and the Wizards should handle Brett Brown’s boys in the Verizon Center.

Wins: 0; Running Total: 23-59

Final Prediction 23 wins; Over

After a couple years of the market severely underestimating the Sixers due to public perception around ‘disgraceful tanking’, I think it’s finally adjusted and given a more equitable representation of where the team should wind up. Still, I think the line of 21.5 is right about on the mark and believe the Sixers should finish over, but not by much. Enjoy watching those 23 victories this season, everyone!