Over the weekend, the Atlanta Braves were linked to the White Sox in regards to a Chris Sale trade. As a Braves fan, I was immediately skeptical. First, I thought that the Braves didn’t really need Sale right now… but then I quickly developed a hypothesis: the Braves intentionally leaked the rumor to appease an anxious fanbase eager for the next great Braves team.
Any deal for Sale will undoubtedly come at an incredibly high price. (The White Sox supposedly asked the Red Sox for Mookie Betts with a straight face.) And that’s within reason: Sale is a perennial Cy Young candidate under a reasonable contract for this year and then two more years after that. He’s at the absolute peak of his value. Fangraphs guru Dave Cameron labeled Sale as the game’s 15th most valuable trade asset just a few weeks ago.
If the Braves want to be good anytime soon, they’re going to need someone like Chris Sale on their team. But given what we think it would cost, and the current state of the Braves organization, acquiring Sale doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The Braves are where they are at the Major League level– last, by a lot– because they’ve swapped most of their major league sluggers for pitching prospects. The future is bright in Atlanta with the team ranking among the top 2-3 farm systems in all of baseball and a reported $40 Million to spend this offseason to help bolster the 2017 Major League roster. But the future in Atlanta is built upon the idea that somewhere between 3 and 7 of the 15ish actual pitching prospects turn into studs. The 2018 or 2019 Braves want to be where the Mets were heading into this year, but with a shortstop or two.
As I wrote in November when the trade Andrelton Simmons went down:
The plan is obvious. As Yogi might have said: Young pitching is the currency in baseball that money can’t buy. The Braves will ultimately trade some of these young guys away for impact position players. They’ll continue to make bold moves and build around Freddie Freeman. This trade just makes it all the more likely that Braves fans will have to suffer in 2016.
That plan has not changed. The key phrase there being that the Braves will trade for impact position players and not additional starting pitching to pair with their homegrown guys. Maybe the Braves will make a move to bring in the next Greg Maddux a la 1995 to move the team over the hump and mentor the young pitchers, but Greg Maddux’s don’t exactly grow on trees. No– the plan is to pair young pitchers, who impact big league clubs more consistently than position player prospects, with established major league sluggers.
The Braves are likely best suited to hang tight, wait for 2018 and let their wave of talent from the farm system creep closer to the Bigs. Remember, they went out and got 3 top high school arms in the draft a few weeks ago. While draft strategies are almost tangential to overall organizational strategy, I can’t help but think that a club hoping to compete in the next year would add assets that won’t help within the next three years. If the club was sincere about hopes to compete in 2017, a clear sign would have been to add a college bat in June who could help within a year of his selection (think Kyle Schwarber).
Realistically, what I’m advocating for is a Braves strategy that sees them target Justin Turner, Yoenis Cespedes, or Jose Bautista this offseason, plus add a top notch starting pitcher via trade (“Hello, Rays, we’d like one starter please. Thank you!”) and they’ll suddenly be much closer to .500. Still, if the Braves are feeling the pressure from fans and need to do something crazy over the next 6 months to drastically improve their on-field product, here’s a list of guys that I would prefer to see them target more than Chris Sale:
Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
I can’t really see the Rays trading Longoria, but it’s an interesting idea. After this year, Longo is still owed $99 Million and signed through 2022, with a team option for 2023. He’s still a tremendous asset when you consider his marketability, his right handed yin to Freddie Freeman’s left-handed yang in the middle of the order, and the fact that he’s been worth 3 WAR in even his recent worse years. He’s 30 this year, so there’s obvious downside, but consider that Pablo Sandoval got $100 Million for his services without nearly the career pedigree that Longoria currently boasts. The Pablo deal didn’t work out, but other third basemen have not displayed that similar aging arc. Look at Adrian Beltre; hell look at Chipper Jones. There’s no reason to think that Longoria cannot be productive through the majority of the rest of his contract. He’s that kind of talent. Plus, even if he’s just a 3 WAR player, that’s 3 WAR more than the Braves are currently getting out of their third basemen.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
Again, I don’t really see the Rockies trading CarGo and setting their somewhat interesting club back another two years from contention, but the reality is that he’ll be a free agent in two years and the Rockies could use some more help in their rotation. The Rockies away ERA is actually better than the Cubs’, so maybe a rotation upgrade isn’t all that necessary once you realize that Coors is going to do what Coors is going to do. Still though, this club is under .500 and doesn’t really figure to compete next year. The Braves shouldn’t surrender the farm for CarGo as he’ll be a free agent after the 2017 season, but he’d certainly make the club more fun.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Look, the Pirates have the best outfield in the majors and a top 30 overall prospect in the minors who is ready to contribute in the majors. Maybe the Braves don’t get Cutch, maybe they get one of the other Pirates outfielders, but the Pirates have what the Braves need: power hitting outfielders. The Braves have the prospects to pull off this type of deal, and it wouldn’t necessarily signal the end of the Pirates’ window of competition. The Braves have some pitching currency and the Pirates might be interested in some of it.
Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants
Pence isn’t going to be dealt since he’s currently on the DL and it’s an even year, but it’s an interesting idea. The Giants have had to do without Pence for the better part of the last two months as he recovers from injury. He’s 33 and has battled through injuries in each of the last two years, but he’s continued to produce. Over the last 4 years, he’s been worth 4 wins per 650 PAs. He’s only under contract through 2018, but that limits the risk against the real possibility that his unorthodox mechanics have finally taken their toll on his body. Depending on how the Giants maneuver and what they think of their extended look at Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson, they may be willing to part with Pence for cheaper than most analysts may realize.
Jonathon Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
As the Braves’ wave of minor league pitchers nears, it would behoove the Braves to have an established big league catcher to assist in the transition to the Majors. Lucroy has a good all around reputation, is seeing a resurgence with his bat this year and is under a reasonable contract. If he doesn’t get dealt to someone else over the next few days, I would be surprised if he doesn’t end up on the Braves to start Spring Training next February.
Now that I’ve put that list together I realize that I pointed out 5 guys that the Braves are likely to attempt to trade for this offseason. Regardless of how it works out, I expect this to be a big offseason for the Braves. They have options and needs. Their shortstops are last in baseball in WAR, 3rd basemen and 2nd basemen rank 28th, their catchers and left fielders are 26th and while shortstop and second base figure to belong to Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies at some point, either of them could be included in a deal for an established big leaguer.
-Sean Morash
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