Breaking Vegas With Garrett Thornton – Week Ten

I am very admittedly a Dallas Cowboys fan. Ever since I was born I have rooted for the silver and blue. Troy Aikman was the reason that I wanted to play quarterback in high school. Deion Sanders was my favorite player to ever watch play football. I loved everything about the Cowboys.

With all that said, I have nailed the predictions on the Cowboys the last two weeks.

Week Eight:

I picked the Cowboys -4.5 against the Eagles. I predicted that the score would be 31-24.

The game went to overtime and ended in the final score of 29-23

Week Nine:

I picked the Cowboys -7 against the Browns. I predicted that the score would be 35-17.

The game was a blowout from the beginning and the Cowboys won 35-10.

This may all just be dumb-luck (like a lot of betting) but I also believe that the Cowboys have become one of the most predictable and consistent teams in the league. Dak Prescott is a steady hand at quarterback, behind the best offensive line in the league, and with the most productive rookie running back since Eric Dickerson. The defense is made up of athletes that can cover space and make tackles. The only way that the Cowboys could screw it up by bringing Tony Romo back to the field.

This week the Cowboys play the Pittsburgh Steelers and I am picking the Cowboys as a two-point underdog at home. Can I keep the momentum?

In New England, the Seahawks look for a little bit of revenge against the Patriots for their Super Bowl 49 loss. With the Patriots coming off of their bye week, the Seahawks are going to have to hope that their offense (scoring 31 points) from Week Nine travels to the NE with them.

A lot is said about cross country trips and how they impact a team. This game is a little bit different. The Seahawks have veteran leadership that will have the team prepared to play the best team in the league.

When it’s all said and done, the Patriots are the more rested, healthy, and overall better team.

With a line so wide as 7.5 points, can the Seahawks cover?

Green Bay Packers -3 @ Tennessee Titans

In the immortal words of Aaron Rodgers, “R-E-L-A-X”. This Green Bay team is going to be just fine. In the jumbled NFC North, the Packers are poised to take the reins in the division. A game and a half behind the slumping Minnesota Vikings, the Packers need a win against the Titans to get some second-half momentum. Despite being average in basically every statistical category, the Packers are the more complete team in this week and will catch the Titans on a down week.

The Titans are beat up. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry both missed practice on Wednesday. Marcus Mariota is one of the up-and-coming stars of the NFL but he can’t do it on his own. The Titans have depended on a consistent running games in the league. They are 3^rd in the league in rushing yards. The Packers will win this game unless the running backs are miraculously 100% before Sunday.

Packers 31 – Titans 17

Atlanta Falcons -1 @ Philadelphia Eagles

First three weeks of the season, the Philadelphia Eagles allowed only 27 points combined. Three wins.

Last three weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 67 points and lost 2 of those 3 games.

The Falcons have scored no less than 23 points and they average 33.9 points per game, the best in the league.

This game all comes down to the Falcons’ dominant offense against the Eagles’ struggling defense. In the end, the Falcons will be too much to handle and will score a touchdown in the 4^th quarter to win the game.

Falcons 27 – Eagles 21

Houston Texans -1.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I don’t know that there are two more disappointing teams in the league this year. Despite a 5-3 record, the Texans are not a great team, especially at the quarterback position. This offseason the Texans paid Brock Osweiler $72 million dollars on a 4-year contract. That is $18 million a year. He currently has a quarterback rating of 73.1. That is 50^th in the NFL. 50!!! There are only 32 teams in the league.

The reason why I have the Texans winning this game is two-fold.

1 – The Texans are the better team overall and need this win more than the Jaguars do.

2 – If there is a QB worse than Osweiler, it might be Bortles who has a marginal advantage in QBR with 80.1, good enough for 41^st in the league.

Texans 28 – Jaguars 24

Seattle Seahawks +7.5 @ New England Patriots

Like I said above, the Seahawks are looking for revenge. The final minute interception by Malcolm Butler in Super Bowl 49 was one of the most demoralizing play in recent history. Richard Sherman and company are a prideful bunch that remember just how bad that hurt.

Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the Patriots are just the better team. Tom Brady is on his revenge tour around the league after serving his four-game suspension to start the season.

The Patriots will dominate the first half, Seahawks will make it close, but the Patriots will win the game.

Patriots 35 – Seahawks 28

Upset Special of the Week:

Dallas Cowboys +2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Cowboys have been the most consistent football team in the league. The Steelers are trying to get some traction with Big Ben coming back from injury and the receiving corp in shambles.

This game is going to come down to which offense can find rhythm first. I trust the Cowboys far more to do that than the Steelers.

The Steelers best chance is to have a big play, early in the game. If the Steelers can score early with some kind of statement play, the Steelers could have the advantage over a young team.

In the end, Cowboys win in a tight game on Fox.

Cowboys 21 – Steelers 20

*All betting lines provided by Bovada.LV on the Thursday preceding particular NFL week.