Looking Ahead to Championship Sunday

And then there were four.

We are now just under a week away from the best day of the NFL season, Conference Championship Sunday. The final four remaining teams hope to punch their ticket to Houston to compete for the Lombardi Trophy. Four are in, only two can move on. Here’s a look towards next Sunday’s games.

NFC Championship (3:05PM ET) – Atlanta (-4) v. Green Bay

This year will be the first in four years that both top seeded teams in the NFL playoffs will not meet in the Super Bowl. A big part of that has to do with the leg of Mason Crosby. The Green Bay kicker was able to boot a 51-yard field goal as time expired to take down the Dallas Cowboys in AT&T Stadium. Green Bay will now move on to the NFC title game where they will face the high-powered Atlanta Falcons, lead by MVP candidate and BC alum, Matt Ryan. It’s going to be a battle of two very efficient and very high scoring offenses led by two quarterbacks playing the best football of their respective careers.

Vegas as of right now (Jan. 16) has the over at 58.5 which is crazy as it is but will likely rise. Atlanta had the #1 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 33.8 points per game. Green Bay wasn’t far behind as they scored an average of 24.3 PPG. Matt Ryan has had a lot do to with the Falcons scoring surge and has been playing out of his mind all season. Completing 69.9% of his passes while throwing for 38 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions left Ryan with a league-best QBR of 117.1. That’s also the best of Ryan’s career and it’s not even close (99.1 in 2012). Ryan is poised is come away with the title of Most Valuable Player, especially if he can carry the Falcons to a Super Bowl victory. A stellar performance and win against the Seahawks on Saturday was a good step towards getting there. We can’t forget the rest of the offense though as Ryan has been getting an awful lot of help from Julio Jones and Co. While catching 83 passes over the course of this season for 1409 yards, Jones finished second in the NFL in receiving yards behind only T.Y. Hilton. Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel each helped propel the Falcons offense into the postseason having each totaled 653 and 579 receiving yards, respectively.

With all of these weapons and the advantage of playing in front of their loud and proud fans, this offense could have a monster day against the average Green Bay defense. The Packers are ranked 21st in the league in terms of allowing opponents to score, averaging 24.3 points against per game. Green Bay was able to force 21 fumbles and came away with with 17 interceptions over the course of the season. If they find a way to get Matt Ryan uncomfortable enough to throw one away, the Packers will be in good shape. Essentially don’t let the Falcons offense remain on the field for drives of 8, 9, 10+ minutes at a time.

But it isn’t all doom and gloom for the Packers, they just so happen to have Aaron Rodgers. Now if you didn’t watch the last 90 seconds of the Green Bay/Dallas game, you missed out on some insane poise and precision from the veteran QB. Rodgers threw for 356 yards, 2 touchdowns and one badly thrown ball that ended up in Dallas’ hands. Rodgers completed 28 of his 43 pass attempts and had the the Cowboys defense rattled going into the half. Rodgers completes more passes outside of the pocket than anyone as he did it 220 times this entire season. The rest of the NFL did that only 200 times. One such play came with around 13 seconds left in the game, when Rodgers scrambled to the left sideline and threw a perfect pass, across his body, into Jared Cook’s hands down on on the Cowboy’s 35 yard line. Not only was it an amazing throw by Rodgers, but Cook now has a Catch of the Year candidate.

Somehow, some way, Cook caught the ball and got the skin of his cleats to touch before leaning out of bounds. After some disputing between officials, the catch was confirmed and set the Packers up with 3 seconds left where they would then kick the game-winning field goal.

The Packers have a challenge to face going into Atlanta, one that may seem easy to some and more difficult to others. The Pack are winners of eight straight and have looked unstoppable. The Falcons have a lot to prove and are geared to do so with the Atlanta faithful right behind them. It will be an offensive matchup and a shootout between two of the league’s finest, with a date in Houston up for grabs.

AFC Championship (6:40PM ET) – New England (-6) v. Pittsburgh

Now who isn’t excited for this game? It’s the “a**holes” New England Patriots against the perhaps a little bit jealous Pittsburgh Steelers. These two teams met in Pittsburgh back in October when the Patriots came away with a 27-16 victory. The Steelers did, however, play that game without Ben Roethlisberger. Landry Jones got the start and never really stood a chance of taking down New England.

Moving ahead to how New England got here, the Patriots defeated the Houston Texans and advance to their record sixth straight AFC title game and the 11th such appearance in the Brady/Belichick era. All bias aside, this should be a great match between two teams who have dominated the AFC in the last 14 years or so. The Patriots are coming off of a rather sluggish performance against the Houston Texans on Saturday night. Brady threw as many interceptions in that game as he did all season, which is most definitely not what Patriots fans were hoping for. That’s four total INTs in Brady’s last two playoff games, as he did the same thing in last year’s AFC Championship game in Denver. Brady was none too pleased during his post-game press conference regarding his two interceptions and the offensive output as a whole. Brady pointed out that New England will need to improve in every area and eliminate turnovers if they stand any chance of winning next Sunday:

“We’re never going to turn the ball over as many times as we did and think we had a good game.”

Belichick now has plenty of fresh material to burn into the minds of his players as they prepare this week. Turnovers, unnecessary penalties on both sides of the ball, dropped passes, etc. It wasn’t a strong showing by the AFC’s top seed, but the Patriots rarely play two poor games in a row. Next up in Gillette Stadium, the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team not known for being on the best of terms with the Patriots. Whether it be allegations and presumptions of SpyGate-like conditions during the 2001 and 2004 AFC title games, or radio interference issues at Gillette during Week 1 of last season, Head Coach Mike Tomlin has his doubts about the legitimacy of New England’s success.

The Steelers enter this game as underdogs with sportsbooks having the Patriots winning by almost a touchdown at least. Pittsburgh played late last night in Kansas City and was able to eliminate the Chiefs from the playoffs with a 18-16 victory. The Steelers have had redzone troubles as of late and it showed as they failed to score a touchdown over the course of the entire game. That’s right. Those 18 points all come from the Pittsburgh kicker, Chris Boswell. Going 6/6, hitting three from 40+ yards, Boswell scored more points than the entire Chiefs team did as a whole. Pittsburgh was able to win the game in the end, but not being able to produce points with players other than your kicker is not going to get the job done in Foxborough against the Patriots. The Patriots are the best in the league in terms of points scored against them, allowing only 15.6 per game. Turnovers and an effective pass rush will be key to either team’s defensive unit come Sunday night.

Brady has now won 23 playoff games, more than 27 other NFL franchises have in general. As long as the offensive line protects Brady and gives him time to make throws, the Patriots will be in good shape. Gillette Stadium is no easy place to play if you’re the opposing team, and squaring off during the playoffs makes it that much more difficult. Pittsburgh is 0-4 in New England with Tomlin as head coach, and Big Ben hasn’t looked his best while on the road this season. If both of these remain true, the Patriots may very well find themselves heading to their 7th Super Bowl in the last 15 years.