I read on Twitter earlier today that 6 teams this season have 12 or more wins – Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, San Francisco, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. That mark ties the NFL record for the most 12+ win teams in a season. All of these teams are excellent and I wouldn’t want feel confident if Pittsburgh played any of the other 5. But that doesn’t mean there are a bunch of juggernauts heading into postseason play.
Here’s a look at each of the contender’s fatal flaw that will likely stop them from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy:
NFC
Green Bay Packers – A leaky defense
Green Bay is 24th in Team Defense DVOA after finishing 2nd in that category during last season. That’s a massive drop. They are rated 23rd against the pass and 26th against the run. Outside of one game, Aaron Rodgers has looked unbeatable this season, but if he is less than stellar during one playoff game, Green Bay is in danger of being outscored. The Packers have looked so dominant this year because their defense generates a lot of turnovers. They’ve intercepted the ball a remarkable 31 teams this year, 8 more than the 2nd highest team. Again, relying on turnovers to bail you out every week isn’t a good gameplan for consistent success.
San Francisco 49ers – Few offensive playmakers
The 49ers path to success in 2011 is a familiar one to Steelers fans: run the ball, don’t turn it over and play solid defense. That might have won you a Super Bowl 6 years ago, but I don’t believe a championship can be won using that strategy in today’s league. The 49ers only throw for 183.5 yards per game, among the worst in the league. Michael Crabtree is their only decent WR and while Vernon Davis and Frank Gore are excellent players, they aren’t explosive enough to score a ton of points in a hurry. If San Francisco gets behind early, they are in trouble.
New Orleans Saints – Another leaky defense
Like the Packers, the Saints dropped to 28th in Team Defense DVOA this season after finishing in the top 10 last year. Drew Brees and the offense are going to have to play outside at some point where they aren’t quite as dynamic. I don’t see any chance of the Saints stopping Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field.
AFC
New England – Yet another leaky defense
Surprise, surprise. New England’s defense is even worse than their counterparts in Green Bay and New Orleans. In fact, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and San Francisco are the only contenders with some semblance of balance on each side of the ball. The Patriots defense gave up 21 points to Buffalo in short order last week. I’m sure they are hoping it snows a lot the next month in Foxboro.
Baltimore – Joe Flacco
Flacco is a tough player to figure out. He’s played lights out during both games against the Steelers this year, but watching him all season long he is still a long ways from being a top-tier QB. He doesn’t throw well on intermediate routes and too often relies on check downs. Flacco completed 57.6% of his passes this offseason, the lowest completition percentage among playoff QBs not named Tebow. Today’s NFL is all about passing offense and the teams who succeed are often carried by a powerful QB. Baltimore doesn’t have that.
Pittsburgh – Turnover margin
Starting with Week One in Baltimore, the Steelers have been awful generous to their opponents, turning the ball over early and often. What should have been easily winnable games against Kansas City, Indianapolis and Cleveland turned into near-losses because of giveaways. An aggressive Broncos defense could give the Steelers fits. What is perhaps even more troubling is the Steelers’ defense isn’t generating any turnovers at all. They are the only team in the league averaging less than one forced turnover a game. The Steelers are the most balanced team in the playoffs and nobody has a better history of playoff success. But they aren’t making it past the divisional round of they don’t start taking better care of the ball.
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