The Heat-Pacers conference finals went the distance and treated fans to some outstanding basketball, in spite of the egregious flopping by both sides, gay slur controversy, and media nonsense about whether LeBron was reverting back to his Cleveland days based on an off-hand remark. Newsflash for traditional media: the Heat won Game 7 less because Wade got back to some arbitrary 20-point scoring mark and more because LeBron assumed the responsibility of guarding Paul George, and the entire Heat team kicked up the defensive intensity to ‘Threat Level Midnight’ in forcing 21 Indiana turnovers. Now though, Miami moves on to face the Spurs (Remember them? They’re actually still playing too) in a series as intriguing for the potential quality of play on the floor as well as its historical significance in determining the legacy of a handful of future hall-of-famers.
First off, let’s get this out of the way: so much of these teams’ success will be determined by their respective ‘Big 3s’. Miami needs LeBron to continue playing like a Monstar who stole the abilities of various great players throughout history, Wade’s knee to stay together long enough for him to be an effective slasher and draw some attention away from James, and Bosh’s ankle to hold up and allow him to provide some sort of inside presence and make his cameo as Cindy the ostrich in Season 4 of Arrested Development. San Antonio needs Tony Parker to run off countless pick and rolls and tire out the Miami defense, Tim Duncan to approximate Roy Hibbert’s defensive efforts protecting the rim as well as run the Spurs’ offense at times from the high post, and Manu Ginobili to think it’s still 2007 and he’s capable of hitting whatever big shot his team needs him to. These players are obviously going to be the biggest factors in determining this year’s champion; however, they’re talked about ad nauseam so I don’t really see the need to discuss them any further here. Instead, let’s focus on one other player from each team who could have the biggest impact on this series.
For San Antonio, Kawhi Leonard may very well be the most crucial player in this series. Not only is he going to need to contribute as a tertiary scoring option, but he will be responsible for slowing down the superhuman force of nature that is Lebron James. Like Paul George last series, Leonard is the only player on his team with the baseline strength/speed combination to deal with LeBron; Danny Green will have to take a couple minutes on him each game but isn’t big enough to deal with James in the post and guys like Diaw and Splitter are too slow to really consider for the assignment. Paul George actually did an outstanding job defending him (1.2 seconds at the end of game 1 aside), and it speaks more to James’ brilliance than any fault of George that LeBron still put up the jaw-dropping numbers he did against Indiana. A recent Rick Reilly piece on Leonard gave the impression that after what that young man has been through, he’s not a candidate to be phased by the big stage. If Kawhi Leonard can approximate what George did while staying out of foul trouble and contributing a bit offensively as well, the Spurs have a chance.
As for the Heat, Shane Battier has long been known as the lynchpin in their transition to a small ball team; he provides elite floor spacing on offense while battling opposing power forwards to save LeBron from the wear and tear of such defensive assignments. However, the size and strength of the West-Hibbert front court, combined with a cold stretch of shooting, diminished Battier’s playing time to such a degree over the course of the series that he never even took the floor in Game 7. Now, the Spurs provide a better, though not ideal, matchup for Battier that should see him regain his pivotal role in the Heat rotation. Although the Splitter-Duncan front court is one which would trouble the Duke grad defensively, the Spurs rely heavily on Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw to provide front court minutes off the bench. Both of those guys are stretch four types who Battier could easily guard without fear of being beaten down on the block. Whenever one of those guys are in the game, or if the Spurs opt to go small with Leonard at the 4, Battier should be able to thrive. If he can regain his three point shooting stroke (43.8% this season), expect the Heat offense to start humming like it was during its historic winning streak, and make life miserable for the Spurs.
Prediction: Heat in 7. Everyone watching will be the real winners though.
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