2014 NFL Futures Preview

By Dan Urda (@DanUrda)

Ah, preseason. The time of the year when fans all across the country get overly excited over the undrafted rookie from Monmouth State who has looked like a beast in camp. When fans clear their Friday night plans to watch their favorite players play for ten minutes…and guys they have never heard of play for two and a half hours. When talk radio is full of debates over who should make the last few spots on the team, even if those players won’t even be dressing for the games. More importantly, preseason is about just having the feeling of football back in the air. The excitement of knowing that in less than a month, Sunday brunches and family gatherings will be a thing of the past. NFL season is here, and it’s a great feeling.

The start of the season means, more than anything else, that it is time to make preseason wagers. I generally try to limit these because most of the value is found during the season, but I usually find a handful of pre-season props that I like, and take a stab or two. Here is what I have on tap for 2014. Remember to follow me on Twitter at @DanUrda; I post these plays when I make them, so if the lines are different by the time the column runs, I stick with what I got.

Rams to win the SB +3500

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Let me clarify one thing before you decide that a wager like this is worthy of you never reading another word that I write: I do not think that the Rams are going to win this year’s Super Bowl. What I do think, however, is that they are tremendously undervalued, and have quietly put together a solid roster that is easily better than teams that have made the playoffs in years past. Yet their odds are still sky high with the other teams that have a reputation for being terrible. It is important to remember, this is not a bet that banks on STL winning it all. The goal is for them to make the playoffs, and then potentially hedge this wager by betting against them. Of course, this depends on the opponent, but if this team makes the playoffs we can at least guarantee ourselves a hefty profit. I think they have a good chance to do just that.

Along with having an elite front seven and a defense that could crack the overall top 8, the Rams have a very intriguing offense. NFL offenses today are all about the quarterback, and granted, Sam Bradford is a huge wild card. However, I am not ready to say that he “sucks.” It feels like it was ages ago that Bradford backed up his enormous rookie contract by putting together a very good season in 2010. Since then, it has been downhill, but injuries and lack of weapons have something to do with that. Now that he has a legitimate NFL offense, it is not crazy to think he could be average. Remember, Rex Grossman, Brad Johnson, and Trent Dilfer have all played in Super Bowls this century.

Now back to those weapons, I don’t think I am wrong to be fairly excited about this offense. The 1-2 running back punch of Zac Stacy and Tre Mason could actually be not just above average, but dynamic.  The WR corps is led by Kenny Britt, who despite the fact that it feels like he entered the league with Randy Moss, is only 25 years old, healthy, reunited with the coach that brought out past success in him, and for the time being, not in jail. Tavon Austin is one of a handful of NFL players who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Brian Quick and Steadman Bailey (after the first four games) have upside, and Chris Givens, who once looked like the Rams future at WR, is now the fifth option.  I see a lot to like with this group.

The biggest challenge for the Rams is the fact that they play in the toughest division in football. While it is not uncommon for surprise teams to come out of nowhere to make the playoffs, such a thing doesn’t usually happen in a stacked division. I don’t see Seattle having too much of a decline after their Super Bowl winning season. Their home field advantage guarantees them at LEAST seven wins off the bat, and this team is loaded enough to be just fine on the road. I am fine with admitting that they are not going anywhere.

After that though, I think a lot more is up in the air than most people. I am not too scared of the Cardinals, as their record was somewhat misleading last season. I see them as an 8-8 team, not a 10 or 11 win team.  And crazy as it may sound, I am worried about San Francisco. It has not been a good offseason for that team, and now they are dealing with injury issues at the running back position and throughout their defense.  I do not think they are the Super Bowl contender that many others predict them to be. Even if they do not fall out of the picture, it is possible for three teams from a division to make it.

Again, I am not saying that my prediction is that the Rams win the Super Bowl, but the 35 to 1 odds that were put out are highly inaccurate, and that is how you make money with future bets; spot the inaccurate line and pounce on it. The Rams may be a long shot, but not as long as that line indicated.

Steelers to make playoffs +180

Like I said all last season and earlier in this column, follow me on Twitter. Not because I am an attention whore….well I am that….but in this case I mean to get line value. I bet lines when I see them, and I post right away so others have a chance to get them too. But my articles don’t always go up right away, so lines can move. I posted this play a month or two ago, and it is now +110. That is called crushing a line, my friends. I hope some of you got it with me, and I still like them at + money in a very up-in-the-air division.

Panthers under 8.5 -160

Under 8 is now -145, so another line that I crushed. Here is a simple equation: QB known for his running ability who now has knee issues + no WR corps + horrible offensive line = disaster season. That is what this year is going to be for the Panthers. It is a shame too, because they were a genuinely exciting team last year, and Cam seemed to be silencing his haters. This front office could not have done a worse job this offseason. Play the Under 8 at -145, the worst you are going to do is push.

I will be back soon with Week 1 plays, hopefully we can get in early on a few lines before they move a point or so. Again, I apologize that these lines are no longer available, but I do post them every time. Let’s make money this season; while it may not be realistic for me to hit 67% again like I did last year, 57% is a very attainable goal.