By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)
After Germany not only served Brazil its first home loss in a competitive match since 1975, but arguably its worst defeat in that proud nation’s sport history, the casual observer felt the European side was destined to lift the trophy for the first time since 1990. However, although the Germans controlled possession for much of the first half, it was actually Argentina who had the more dangerous chances early on.
In particular were two huge missed opportunities by Gonzalo Higuain, one where Germany’s Toni Kroos gifted a ball to him behind the German defense and Higuain botched a wide-open look from straight away inside the box, and another where the Argentinian failed to keep himself onside for a beat longer before a perfect cross came into the box and he put it home. Germany did have one prime chance of their own right before halftime when Benedikt Howedes’ header off a corner unsuccessfully struck the post.
From the second half on, play more or less stagnated, and it eventually seemed that the World Cup champion would be left to the vagaries of the penalty shootout. However, the depth of the European side eventually shone through, as they had subbed out the leading goalscorer in World Cup history in Miroslav Klose, only to bring on a player like Mario Gotze, who will be remembered for one of the more impressive game-winners in tournament history. In the 113th minute, off Andre Schurrle’s dynamite cross, Gotze perfectly chested the ball and volleyed it into the far corner to send the Germans on to victory. As if a man already dating a German lingerie model needed any help, the German striker will have statues made in his honor back in the home country.
[iframe src=”http://giphy.com/embed/wDuoW4vqlt2W4″ width=”500″ height=”250″ frameBorder=”0″ webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen][/iframe]After a high-scoring, exciting group stage, things settled down some in the knockout rounds, but it was good to see the final decided on such a remarkable goal. A scoreless draw decided by penalties would not have done justice to the quality we saw on display from all sides throughout the competition. Speaking of competition, we’re all about accountability here, so let’s look back at our pre-tournament wagers and see what we got right, what we got wrong, and how much extra we’ll have lining our pockets for when the next big sporting event rolls around.
Brazil and Croatia to both advance from Group A: -2 Units
Forgetting the questionable penalty kick granted to Brazil in the opener against Croatia, I attribute this loss to the superhuman efforts of Guillermo Ochoa. Ochoa put forth the most dominant keeping display of the tournament before Tim Howard morphed into a cross of Captain America and Julie ‘The Cat’ Gaffney. Ochoa’s most remarkable effort came in El Tri’s scoreless draw against Brazil, where his 6 saves were of the highest degree of difficulty, including one spectacular stop of a Neymar header. With the draw secured, Mexico went into their final group stage match against Croatia up one point, enabling them to sit back in their defensive cocoon and wait for the inevitable mistake from the Eastern Europeans as they tried to force the action. There are worse ways to lose a wager than watching an exquisite goalkeeping performance.
[iframe src=”http://giphy.com/embed/5AwCyy6tTpYoNqoEdmU” width=”500″ height=”250″ frameBorder=”0″ webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen][/iframe]France to win Group E: +1.48 Units
Things basically played to script in Group E, with the dynamic French attack jumping out to huge leads against Honduras and chief competition Switzerland, before drawing against Ecuador in a match where they only needed a point to win the group. Despite losing to eventual champion Germany 1-0 in the quarterfinals, France acquitted itself very well in this tournament.
Netherlands to be eliminated at Group Stage: -2 Units
This wager was a belief in Chile, that the high-scoring South American squad could come out of a tough group to advance to the knockout round. They did. Unfortunately for my purposes, it was at the expense of the wrong European powerhouse. Netherlands put this bet to rest with a 5-1 mauling of the defending champions in their opening match. However, it was the incredible Robin Van Persie header which really turned the tide, leveling the match right before halftime after the Spanish had controlled the action for much of the first 45 minutes. That goal seemingly swung the entire attitude of the Dutch side and propelled them all the way to the Semifinals.
[iframe src=”http://giphy.com/embed/uViXN2cwPGoYU” width=”500″ height=”250″ frameBorder=”0″ webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen][/iframe]Belgium +0.5 Regulation vs. Argentina: -2 Units
I posted this additional play on my twitter feed the morning of the match. Having Argentina either losing in the Semifinals or the Final, I wanted to hedge against the possibility of Messi and company being knocked out by the Belgians in the quarters. Taking the Rode Duivels to win or draw in regulation afforded a nice middle opportunity, as that wager could hit and Argentina could still go on to win in extra time or a shootout. Of course, Gonzalo Higuain did here what he couldn’t in the World Cup Final, scoring in the 8th minute, a strike which would represent the only goal of the match. It was also the last time the Argentinians would find the back of the net during the tournament when penalty kicks were not involved.
Argentina to be eliminated at Semi-Finals: -2 Units
Oh, here’s the Argentina win in a shootout I was looking for a round earlier. This match was a fairly tepid affair with both clubs seemingly content to wile away the time before going to penalties. Strangely, the Dutch manager did not leave himself a substitute to once again bring in reserve goalkeeper Tim Krul for the shootout, a move that had worked to perfection against Costa Rica a round earlier. Argentina would not miss a single penalty against regular netminder Jasper Cillessen on their way to face Germany in the Final.
Argentina to be eliminated at Runner-Up: +12 Units
Now we’re talking! Despite the Argentina runner-up line at +600, I decided to roll the dice and not hedge at all, trusting the German side to come out on top in the final. It looked like a dumb move the further the game progressed, with the Argentinian back line, largely questioned coming into the tournament, having really solidified themselves as an impregnable unit. Despite the Germans having never lost a penalty shootout in the World Cup, I was not relishing the idea of having to sweat through such a nerve-racking final outcome. So I’ll join the millions of German fans out there in saying, thank you Mario Gotze!
Brazil to win World Cup: -2 Units
7-1. There are no more tears in Brazil.
Grand Total: +3.48 Units
Like the Germans, we were able to come out on top in this World Cup tournament, winning close to 3 and a half units. The only thing more exciting than top-notch World Cup action is top-notch World Cup action while wagering on the right side. Until next time friends.
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