2015 Oscars Preview

By Dan Urda (@DanUrda)

Earlier this week, I won a large bet on Central Connecticut State’s college basketball team. In an effort to not let that be the biggest degenerate move I make all week, I will also be wagering on the Oscars. To be fair, I wager on entertainment awards quite frequently, and have a very high win rate. I also enjoy them immensely. Yes, the Academy Awards is nothing but a group of mostly self-important rich people patting each other on the back. It’s the most masturbatory ceremony this side of the AVA’s (get it?).

But I love it. I have always had an affinity for celebrities, most notably movie stars, and the films they make. The fact that I make it a point to both watch a lot of movies and follow the movie industry has me generally keyed in on who should win these awards. The key to betting on these awards is separating who you think should win from who is going to win by looking at the awards circuit leading up to the Oscars. So if you followed me and won some loot on Eddie Redmayne at the Golden Globes, here are a few places you can wager some of that profit.

Mortal Locks

There are some nominees who are going to win. There is literally no chance of them losing. While that may sound like the way to make money, unfortunately the odds reflect this, making wagering on them have no value. If you have a buddy in the room who is not as tuned in, see if you can get 2 to 1 action from them on these, but these are so definite that the odds on each are 50 to 1. Hell, if you are rolling in dough, risk 500 to win 10 on all of these and enjoy a free week of Starbucks. These will not lose:

Best Actress – Julianne Moore

Best Supporting Actor – J.K. Simmons

Best Supporting Actress – Patricia Arquette

In these three categories, the rest of the contenders don’t even need to bother staying sober.

Underdogs Worth a Shot if You Don’t Mind Losing

These are not the favorites to win their respective categories, but given the price, there may be some value in taking a shot. It’s like a futures bet in sports, you don’t necessarily think it will happen, but you think the odds are better than the price books are offering.

Best Original Song – Everything is Awesome +400

The heavy favorite here is “Glory” from the film “Selma” which by all means may win this category.  But this is one category that the Academy has always liked to use to show they can be fun and not always super serious. Remember, Three 6 Mafia won an Oscar for “Hard Out Here for a Pimp” before Martin Scorsese ever won an Oscar. I also think that there is a chance that voters have a bad taste in their mouth for all things “Selma.” When director Ava DuVernay and actor David Oyelow failed to receive nominations, the backlash voters received for being “old, white, and racist” was way over the top. I could see that leaving some hard feelings and making them reluctant to give Selma any gold. And to be honest, I just listened to both songs; Everything is Awesome may not be as meaningful or powerful, but it’s absolutely more enjoyable. This is definitely worth a shot.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Whiplash +250

I think people loved this movie even more than it gets credit for. The favorite here according to the books is “The Imitation Game” but I would say this is a 55/45 favorite, so getting 2.5 to 1 on your bet gives you some value.

Best Director – Richard Linklater +120

Boyhood was once the favorite to be the big winner this Sunday, but since then Birdman has gained a ton of steam. I still think there is a good chance Linklater gets credit for his 12 year project, solely because he did something that was never tried before. While Birdman is going to win Best Picture in all likelihood, voters could easily recognize Linklater here.

Official Picks

Best Picture – Birdman -200

Lay it. It’s gonna happen. The film is about actors and Hollywood. The voters are either actors or have some relationship to Hollywood. This goes back to what I said about this being a masturbatory night. Birdman takes home the gold.

Best Foreign Film – Ida -225

This has been the frontrunner from the start, and I don’t think Russia’s Leviathan gained enough steam to top it. It was also on Netflix for a lot of the year, which means there is a greater chance that voters saw it. Yes, voters do vote without seeing all films in a category sometimes. I would say it is more of a 4 to 1 favorite to win, so I’m ok laying -225.

Who the Heck Knows?

The most interesting race of the night is going to be the Best Actor race. We won big with Redmayne at the Golden Globes, but that is because comedies/musicals are separated from dramas for those awards. Now Redmayne has to duke it out with Michael Keaton, who was once the favorite in this category. Redmayne’s portrayal of Stephen Hawking was breathtaking, but the movie itself was boring, and to me, an imitation is a separate skill than creating a character. I think there may be value in Keaton at +250, as the Academy often gives out lifetime achievement awards, but quite honestly I have no idea here. There is always the crazy chance that these two split votes and Bradley Cooper slips in too. All I know is that this is the race of the night, and what I am most interested in seeing come Sunday. I would not recommend betting on either side, although you could argue that by my own logic, if I think it is so close, why not take the +250? To me, this is just too crazy of a category, so no play for me.

If you are like me and love this event, enjoy the show. If you are not like me and don’t care about it at all, I hope you at least win some cash!