The NL East was once dominated by the Atlanta Braves. The Braves won 14 consecutive division titles, eating regular season opponents like it was their jobs, and generally acting like zombies incapable of anything but dominance. That story is now decidedly in the past. For the first time since I was born, the Braves do not figure to be in the mix for the NL East crown. The Washington Nationals are the favorite, led by a rotation that’s both great in quality and quantity. They’re the favorite to win the World Series, but there are some other young clubs in the division that could put up a fight.
The Miami Marlins made moves this off-season, both to improve their public image and also to actually compete. The New York Mets have their Ace back and the rotation and public/media pressure that should keep them relevant. And the Philadephia Phillies figure to be relevant for either selling their pieces, or not.
In 2015, this isn’t really a division that’s all that compelling in a vacuum. But the backstories and histories of the individual clubs make it all the more fascinating. An alien watching Matt Harvey pitch wouldn’t realize the struggles that he’s been through, effectively pausing the entire organization as he recovered from a torn elbow ligament. That same alien wouldn’t realize just how traumatized the Marlin’s history has left its fanbase. Is this newfound attempt to compete genuine? Will the team actually be good, or will Jeff Loria cut and run like lady time? And that little alien in a new world probably wouldn’t understand why the old Phillies team is still paying $144 Million to field this collection of talent. The little alien wouldn’t understand why the Phillies’ feel they need to hold on to those good old days. (Then again, neither does anyone else.)
But, as humans who have been here, we get that there’s more to this division than projected records. We get that all those feelings, emotions, stories, struggles (self-inflicted or not), and fresh starts combine to make this division just as compelling as any other, regardless of its competitiveness.
The Prediction:
- Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins
- New York Mets
- Atlanta Braves
- Philadelphia Phillies
This is a pretty easy race to handicap and most prognosticators will fill things in just as I have them above. That doesn’t mean I’m incapable of independent thought, but rather that the division has organizations going for distinctly different strategies, and this outcomes. (I suppose that could mean that it’s all just too easy and therefore I will be totally wrong. These predictions are usually way off by June anyway.)
Washington Nationals, first place, 99-63
The Nationals had the best rotation ERA, FIP, WAR, and BB/9 in baseball last year. All they did was add the guy who has finished in the top 5 in the Cy Young voting the past two years. Max Scherzer, the new guy, is the opening day starter. Jordan Zimmermann is just as good and Stephen Strasburg was so hyped that he’s somehow become underrated. Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister will round out the rotation, both of whom are very good. But you knew all that. Did you know that Tanner Roark, the guy who is being pushed to the bullpen, has a career 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP?
The Nationals are more than just a collection of pitchers. Their lineup figures to be pretty good as well. We listed Bryce Harper as one of our five lynchpin players a few weeks ago. That prediction still holds. Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond are a good core that could be made all the better by a monstrous Bryce Harper. From Max’s analysis:
Harper makes everyone around him better. If Harper is a monster, chances are Anthony Rendon and Denard Span are scoring a ton of runs at the top the order and stealing a lot of bags as pitchers focus in on Bryce. His left handed dominance likely means that Rendon and Werth, the righties flanking him in the lineup, are seeing a lot more left handed pitching which will help them too. If Harper hits for power and stays healthy–if he plays like he did in that NLDS when he launched 3 bombs including a splash down in San Fran–the Nats plan to go for broke in 2015 will look a heck of a lot safer.
The bullpen will be fine, but not great, and might be worse if Casey Janssen’s shoulder stays sore. Drew Storen is a good closer, but the other guys out there don’t appear to be so dominating.
Miami Marlins, second place, 85-77
This team feels like it’s been secretly good for a few years, but it hasn’t. Last year, the Marlins finished at 77-85 and before that lost at least 90 games for three straight years. Their last winning season was 2009 and their payroll usually borders on the MLB semi-mandated floor. So, why the optimism?
Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez are two of the brightest stars shining in today’s game. They’re backed by Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Henderson Alverez to form a homegrown core that’s both talented and cheap. The Jeffrey Loria dream. But the Marlins made moves this offseason to bring in established big-leaguers to compliment these youngsters and give the team a real opportunity to succeed. Mat Latos, Martin Prado, Mike Morse, Dan Haren, and Dee Gordon are all new to Miami and help to fill out the roster with good players.
There are real concerns with this team, though. At catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jeff Mathis aren’t ideal. Adeiny Hechavarria has yet to prove that he can hit enough to stay on a big league roster. New guy Dee Gordon has had about two good months in the majors. The bullpen could use another good pitcher or two, as Mike Dunn is good, but shouldn’t be listed as a good team’s second best reliever.
And more than all that, Jeffrey Loria is their owner and may decide to blow things up in July even if the team has a shot. The Royals were 53-52 last July 29th. If the Marlins are sitting in the same situation this year, do we really think that the club will hold on to free-agents-to-be Mat Latos and Mike Morse? The team, as currently constructed, should finish above .500, especially if Jose Fernandez makes his triumphant return to dominance. However, much of me feels like we were saying the same thing prior to the 2012 season. Hint: we were.
New York Mets, third place, 78-84
The big picture with the Mets is their young starting pitching, but they’re quickly realizing that UCLs simply do not hold up. The ideal rotation of Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom hasn’t exactly materialized. deGrom won the Rookie of the Year last year, while Matt Harvey recovered from a torn UCL. And now Noah Syndergaard will continue to refine his stuff in the minors, while Zach Wheeler works his way back from the Tommy John surgery that he had just a week ago.
This is still not a bad team despite the loss of Wheeler, and Syndergaard’s slow development. While giving Bartolo Colon the Opening Day start is odd, the rest of the rotation fills out well. deGrom, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee will all be taking their faithful turns behind Matt Harvey and Colon. The rotation isn’t great, but it’s good enough. I’m not sure I can say the same about the bullpen where Jenrry Mejia is the closer and Jeurys Familia sets him up. They’re winning the weird “J” name competition for sure though.
The lineup strategy is apparently just: let’s hope it works out. Michael Cuddyer was brought in this offseason to solidify left field, and he should compliment the core of Lucas Duda, David Wright, and Daniel Murphy nicely. We listed Wright among our 5 lynching too, but Curtis Granderson is equally important to this club. He’s capable of 40+ homers, but paired 20 last year with a .227 average. They’re solid at most positions, but not great at any.
Atlanta Braves, fourth place, 71-91
We’ve got a full length post coming on the Braves in the next day or two. I’ll rehash some of it below, but the short version is that this club could be the worst Braves club since 1990. My projection has them one worse than the win total of the 2008 team, so by my estimation they’re going to reach that, er, plateau, if barely.
The short version on the Braves is that they’ve got a solid 1/2/3 punch in the rotation of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller, followed by some veterans who are insured by some youngsters in case someone gets hurt. But they’ve got three guys penciled in to be everyday starters who posted negative WAR totals last year. They’re also going to be relying on a 24-year old second baseman who was never really considered a top prospect, and a young catcher who has never hit to man everyday jobs.
At least they’ve got Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel, so ESPN will make at least a few tips to Atlanta.
Philadephia Phillies, last place, 65-97
Somehow the Phillies keep getting worse. They’ve got some very solid players to be sure, but when a team is paying Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee, and Jon Papelbon a combined $62 Million to provide 1-2 War (combined!), things are going to be bad. They’re also paying Aaron Harang $5 Million. And does anyone know why they’re paying Marlon Byrd $4 Million in 2015?
Cole Hamels is good and we shouldn’t forget that. To keep with the theme, he too is still owed over $90 Million the next four years, but at least he’s just 31 and coming off a year in which he posted a 2.46 ERA. Chase Utley is also good, but has hit exactly 11 homers in three of the past four years. A google image search for “Phillies good things” literally brings back a man picking his nose.
The Phillies will be bad. Very bad. Dave Cameron thinks that the outfield of Ben Revere, Odubel Herrera, and Grady Sizemore is in the running for the worst Opening Day outfield of all time. Throw in that Freddy Galvis and Cody Asche are not very good and that the Phillies might be better served if Ryan Howard no longer played for them (as Ruben Amaro made clear), and it’s obvious just how bad this summer will be. That’s 6 of their Opening Day starters who are bad. The Braves only had four of those.
Bold Predictions:
- Craig Kimbrel does not pitch in the All-Star Game
- Cole Hamels pitches for the Cubs at some point.
- Tanner Roark makes more than 15 starts for the Nats.
- Stephen Strasburg strikes out 248 batters
on the year. - Matt Harvey wins 21 games and posts a 3.22 ERA.
- Grady Sizemore steals 14 bases.
- Dee Gordon steals 71 bases.
- Giancarlo Stanton breaks one of Dee Gordon’s legs after Gordon is thrown out trying to steal third with two outs in the ninth, with Stanton at bat.
- Mat Latos pitches for the Red Sox in July.
- Chase Utley gets traded to the Angels.
- Andrelton Simmons hits 21 homers.
-Sean Morash
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