2016 Gameday 14: Cincinnati Bengals

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1:00pm
Queen City Correctional Facility
TV: CBS (map)
Radio: WDVE and other affiliates

This game will not be the AFC Northpocalypse that we predicted at the beginning of the season. The Bengals have fallen completely out of the playoff race with a 5-7-1 record and can be eliminated for good with a Steelers victory today. This game was originally scheduled to be a Sunday Night game but was flexed out of the time spot because of the Bengals lackluster record.

What To Watch For

1. Vontaze Burfict

Burfict was suspended for the first meeting between these teams, which means he’ll be looking to get in two games worth of dirty hits in just 60 minutes. According to articles that came out this week, Burfict supposedly apologized to Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown that ended both of their seasons last year. That’s all well and good, but the fact of the matter is Burfict’s play has continued to be dirty and illegal this season. His suspension obviously did nothing to change his style of play and he has been out to injure opponents all year. The Steelers will need to know where he is on every play and do their best to minimize his chances of derailing another season.

2. Le’Veon Bell

Le’Veon Bell has been the best running back in the league over the last month. Ezekiel Elliot is probably going to win the rushing title and fantasy football gurus are drooling over David Johnson. Elliot is a great back in a run-heavy offense who has taken his team to the playoffs. Johnson’s team has no passing game and is on the precipice of being eliminated from playoff contention. Over the last month, Bell has rushed for 620 yards and 5 TDs and added 203 receiving yards. He is averaging over 200 yards from scrimmage per game during the Steelers 4-game winning streak. Bell has posted big games against the Bengals in the past, though he has left the last two with knee injuries that ended his 2014 and 2015 seasons.

3. Tight Ends

The Steelers have traditionally fared poorly against big receiving tight ends. Tyler Eifert missed the first meeting between the division rivals this season but has had big games against the Steelers in the past. In the first game this season, Bengals tight ends combined for 6 catches for 44 yards. On the other side, the Steelers have had success attacking the Bengals two-high defense with tight ends down the seam. Last year, Heath Miller had 10 catches in both games against Cincinnati, reeling in 171 total yards. Ladarius Green missed the first meeting this season, but Xavier Grimble, Jesse James and David Johnson combined for 6 catches for 60 yards and 2 TDs. The Steelers definitely will have a mismatch with Green on any Bengals linebacker, and they will try to exploit it. Ben has targeted Green 17 times over the last two weeks, and the rapport between the two is starting to grow. This is an excellent matchup scenario for Green to have a monster day.

4. Pass Rush

The Bengals have given up 36 sacks this season, the 6th highest total in the league. Andy Dalton has only thrown 6 interceptions but has fumbled 9 times. The Steelers pass rush has been absolutely on fire the last month, tallying 18 sacks (more than doubling their amount in the prior 9 games. The pass rush needs to stay hot and force Dalton to make bad throws. Dalton does possess some elusiveness and is not the easiest quarterback to bring down, but the Steelers can make it a long day for the Bengals offense by stopping Jeremy Hill on the ground and forcing Dalton to beat them with his arm.

5. Bump And Run

The Bengals traditionally play press coverage on the outside against the Steelers receivers with their two safeties playing in a Cover-2 shell over the top. The intention is to limit the amount of big plays the Steelers can generate (though Sammie Coates had 2 catches for 97 yards in the first meeting). Pacman Jones was matched up exclusively on Antonio Brown in the first game and followed him all over the field. Jones did a good job limiting Brown’s catches and being physical with him. The Steelers may need to manufacture ways to get Brown away from Jones and to matriculate the ball down the field. The Bengals linebackers are not great in coverage and both Le’Veon Bell and Ladarius Green are absolute mismatches. The Steelers may find it tough to work the short quick passes against the Bengals press coverage, and it will be incumbent on the receivers to break away from the press man looks on the outside to give Ben targets to hit.

The Playoff Race

The Steelers enter Week 15 with a one-game lead in the AFC North over the Baltimore Ravens. The Division Title can not be won this week, and for all intents and purposes it will be decided on Christmas Day when the Ravens come to Pittsburgh. Here’s a look around at the other games this weekend that matter in the AFC Playoff Race.

Miami 34, NY Jets 13 – Did you know there was an NFL game played on Saturday night? The Dolphins beat the Jets to move to  9-5 and stay very much alive in the Wild Card race.

Tennessee (7-6) at Kansas City (10-3) – The Chiefs currently hold the top spot in the AFC West with two head-to-head victories over Oakland. They still trail the Patriots by a game in the race for homefield advantage but could also be caught by the Steelers for the second seed if the Steelers win out and the Chiefs and Raiders lose twice. The Chiefs can clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Titans sit tied for first in the AFC South with Houston (though the Texans currently hold the tiebreaker).

Indianapolis (6-7) at Minnesota (7-6) – Both of these teams are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The Colts are only one game back in the AFC South and with Miami’s win would be eliminated from Wild Card contention with a loss.

Jacksonville (2-11) at Houston (7-6) – The Texans (somehow) currently lead the AFC South. They face Jacksonville and Cincinnati before a Week 17 showdown with Tennessee that may decide the division title.

Philadelphia (5-8) at Baltimore (7-6) – The Ravens are one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North. This is one of the few times I’ll advocate rooting for a team from Philadelphia, but it would be a big help to the Steelers if the Eagles could pull this one off. Regardless of what happens, the Steelers-Ravens game next week will decide the division title.

Oakland (10-3) at San Diego (5-8) – The Chargers were eliminated from playoff contention with Miami’s win on Saturday night. The Raiders are in solid position with 10 wins and clinch a playoff spot with a win.

New England (11-2) at Denver (8-5) – The Patriots currently sit atop the AFC Standings and can clinch the AFC East and a first round bye with a win over the Broncos. Denver is two games back in the AFC West and need a win to keep pace with the Dolphins in the race for the last Wild Card spot. As an interesting note, the Steelers would currently win a 3-way tie with the Dolphins and Broncos for the last Wild Card spot after last week. However, that tiebreaker is based on conference record which would be effected if the Steelers lost any of their remaining games.

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