2016 Oscars Preview

By Dan Urda (@DanUrda)

This Sunday, Hollywood will hold its annual tradition of a bunch of stuffy white people who take themselves way too seriously presenting other stuffy white people who take themselves too seriously with awards that mean absolutely nothing, but at the same time, mean absolutely everything. This is one perfectly reasonable way to look at the Oscars. However, instead, I choose to be less cynical, drink a bottle of wine, and enjoy the hell out of the show each year. I understand the flaws, and I could write a ten page column on the #OscarsSoWhite issue. But I won’t, because I truly love movies, so I can put up with watching this self-indulgent ceremony and staying positive about the whole thing.

Every year, I like to write a column in which I predict each winner of the major categories, discuss my feelings on the nominees and any snub that I feel occurred, and offer insight into whether there is any value on the betting lines. Yes, for those of you who have never read this annual column, you can bet on the Oscars. Hell, you can bet on who will be the next James Bond (Tom Hardy is the favorite). Some say that it takes a degenerate to wager on such a thing. I say, if there is value to be had, you are foolish not to take advantage of it. Then again, I once wagered $500 on the Rookie/Sophomore game during NBA All-Star Weekend, so maybe I am not the right one to defend degeneracy.

Unfortunately, while in years past there was great value in betting on Oscar winners if you followed the awards circuit, that is no longer the case. The path to an Oscar has become so crystal clear that almost every category has a heavy favorite that will have you wagering absurd amounts of money to win a few bucks. However, I will do my best to give out some winners, along with some insight on each category.

Best Picture

There actually is some intrigue behind this one. When the nominations came out, it was assumed that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu would likely win Best Director for The Revenant, Leo would win Best Actor, but Best Picture would be up for grabs. Spotlight was the early favorite, with The Big Short not far behind and The Revenant a close third. However, since then, The Revenant has gained momentum, and has taken home many of the pre-Oscar awards that usually indicate who will win.  The Revenant is the favorite now, at -220, but I still feel like there may be value in taking Spotlight at +145. I could absolutely see voters deciding that giving Inarritu the Directing Oscar is enough recognition for a film many found tedious, and going with Spotlight. However, I am going to lay off, as The Revenant is on fire right now, and I don’t like to step in front of a moving train.

Side Note: The actual best movie of the year was Ex Machina. It got robbed to not even get a nomination. If you haven’t yet, see it immediately.

Best Actor and Actress

It’s Leo and Brie Larson. There’s really no doubt about these, so it is senseless to waste time on this.  The lines on these two are through the roof. When this happens, I always recommend trying to find a friend of yours who is a sucker who you can make a friendly bet with. Tell him you bet him a case of beer that you can name Best Actor and Best Actress. Give him 3 to 1 odds. That is still better than what the books are offering. The point I am trying to make is, these two are going to win and everybody knows it, even if Matt Damon’s work in The Martian was significantly better. By the way, Brie Larson is the next superstar of Hollywood and if you have not seen her in Short Term 12, you are doing yourself a disservice. It’s on Netflix, and Larson should have been at the very least nominated in 2014 for it. At least she gets her due now.

Best Director

It would be really, really cool if the Academy recognized George Miller for, at age 70, creating one of the best action movies you will ever see, with incredibly creative set pieces, breathtaking choreography, and non-stop adrenaline. This is a guy who wrote Babe. Yes, the one with the pig. It would also be cool if they recognized Adam McKay, who stunned everybody who knew him as the guy who directed Step Brothers and Anchorman. McKay took a very important yet hard-to-understand topic and made an immensely entertaining film that was easy for the audience to follow.  Or even Tom McCarthy, who is not getting enough credit for directing Spotlight with a “less is more” attitude, and letting the script and performances shine while not getting in the way by trying to be too flashy.

Unfortunately (that’s my opinion at least), it looks like the Academy will give this to Inarritu for the second straight year. To me, The Revenant is Oscar pandering at its worst. It’s second-rate Terrence Malick. And it has my least favorite quality a film can have; it thinks it is better than it is. If you want to see the good version if The Revenant, just seek out Jeremiah Johnson. But I digress, as Inarritu is the 10 to 1 favorite to win, and I would be very shocked if he did not.

Best Supporting Actor

Poor Mark Rylance. If you don’t know who Mark Rylance is, it’s because he does his job of being a character actor perfectly. The roles he plays are usually the type that, if he doesn’t stand out, he is doing a great job. That is great for him in that it has kept him steadily employed in Hollywood, as well as on stage, for three decades, and gained him the respect of his fellow actors and directors.  However, it is unfortunate for him in that, despite the steady work, nobody knows who Mark Rylance is.

Mark Rylance is an actor’s actor, and his performance in Bridge of Spies was his time to shine. Until recently, it looked like he was going to run away with the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, and finally get widespread recognition. The last thing that people expected was for Sylvester Stallone, playing a character in the sixth installment of a franchise that once appeared to be dead in the water, to give him a run for his money.

Not only did that happen, but Stallone is now the heavy favorite. And you know what? As much as I feel for Rylance, this would be far from a gimmick Oscar if Stallone does take it home. Creed was about ten billion times better than anyone expected it to be when they first heard of it, and ended up being one of the year’s best films. Much of that is due to Michael B. Jordan in the starring role, and the perfect tone set forth by director Ryan Coogler. But Creed wouldn’t have been truly great if Stallone didn’t knock his performance out of the park, and that is exactly what he did.

Look, I get it, Stallone is often looked at as a roided up meat-head who talks with a slur. However, he is a much better actor than people seem to realize. Don’t believe me? Go see Cop Land. This Oscar will partially act as a lifetime achievement award for creating the role of Rocky Balboa, but it is much more than that. This was his best performance as this character, and making the head of the franchise a supporting character was a risk that paid off. Stallone wins this, and the place will go nuts when his name is called.

Side Note: I think that the #OscarsSoWhite thing is a bit ridiculous. There is an issue, but it is not with the Academy, it is with Hollywood. There needs to be more great roles for black actors, not just playing a slave or a sidekick. And black directors should be given a chance to make movies that have a chance of being seen by a wide audience, not just the black community. If that changes, I believe there will be more black Oscar nominees. The problem lies there, and not with the Academy.

Having said that, there is absolutely zero reason why Idris Elba should not have gotten a nomination in this category. Unless the voters left him off in protest of the film’s “straight to Netflix” release, there is no good reason why they let Tom Hardy ride Leo’s coattails to this nomination instead of recognizing Elba. I don’t know if it was race, or the Netflix thing, or what, but this is a spot where the voters completely dropped the ball.

Best Supporting Actress

We have a real race finally! There are three legitimate candidates for this category. Rooney Mara could very well have been considered a lead in Carol, but voters gave her a nomination in this category, and she is very much in the picture for his award. But more likely than not, the race here is Alicia Vikander vs. Kate Winslet for The Danish Girl and Steve Jobs, respectively. Vikander is the favorite at -350. However, Give me Winslet as a +250 underdog any day.

First off, this was not even Vikander’s best performance of the year, as I think she should have been nominated for Ex Machina over this. Some voters will agree and shy away from her, as The Danish Girl was shameless Oscar bait. Second, Winslet is the veteran here, and I am not sure I believe voters will choose the first-time nominee over her. At the very least, it’s a toss up. We finally have a play; Kate Winslet at +250.

There are dozens more categories with odds on betting sites, and I will spare you a write-up on all of them. Here are just some plays I like:

Winslet +250 Best Supporting Actress

Best Original Score: Star Wars The Force Awakens +250 (I could see the Academy completely shutting out The Hateful Eight)

Best Original Song: Til it Happens to You from The Hunting Ground by Lady Gaga -300

Best Animated Short: World of Tomorrow +110 (this is on Netflix and it is awesome!)

Remember, these are fun. I am not saying bet your bank account on any of these. If you are desperate for ten easy bucks, go ahead and risk $500 on Leo to win. Either way, enjoy the show, even though it does always seem to underwhelm. Every time I see actors, actresses, directors, etc., taking these awards so seriously, I think of two things:

1. The Oscars were originally created as a way of making actors feel rewarded so they didn’t unionize; and

2. Three-Six Mafia has an Oscar and Edward Norton does not.