30 Teams in 30 Days: Day 24 – Washington Nationals

The Montreal Expos were an extremely poorly run team leading to reports that they were going to be contracted for the 2002 season.  After some litigation (Hello, NFL Labor Dispute), the MLB took over ownership of the Expos franchise and moved them to Washington prior to the 2005 season.  Since then The Nationals (Nats) have struggled.  Finishing last in the division five of the 6 years of their existence, perhaps the Nationals should have been contracted.  With the signing of Jayson Werth and the promise of Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals are finally looking up.  But how far?

Projected Lineup:

1. Nyjer Morgan (CF)
2. Ian Desmond (SS)
3. Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
4. Jayson Werth (RF)
5. Adam LaRoche (1B)
6. Roger Bernadina (LF)
7. Ivan Rodriguez (C)
8. Danny Espinosa (2B)

Projected Rotation:

• Livan Hernandez
• Jason Marquis
• Jordan Zimmerman
• Tom Gorzelanny
• John Lannan

Strengths:

Lineup: I really like this lineup for the low payroll ($62 Million) Nats.  Ian Desmond is a legitimate Major League SS and looks to improve on a very solid rookie year: .269 with 10 HR and 17 SBs.  Nyjer Morgan has proven a capable leadoff man in the past and with Ryan Zimmerman (.307, 25 HR, 82 RBI) and Jayson Werth (.296, 27 HR, 85 RBI) batting behind the top guys this lineup can score some runs.  Throw in Adam LaRoche, who has averaged 23 HR in his 6 year career, and this team can be good.

Future:  Ian Desmond (25) is in his second season. Roger Bernadina (26) is excited for the opportunity for a full time role in 2011. Ryan Zimmerman is still 26 and one of the top 3B in the game.  Bryce Harper (18) has an unbelievably bright future and though unlikely to play in the Bigs in 2011, figures prominently in the Nats long term plans.  Remember the injured Stephen Strasburg, the best pitching prospect in the game, and the Nats look set for 2012.

Weaknesses:

Rotation:  This team reminds me a lot of the Rays prior to their success.  Good young prospects, athletic outfielders but no rotation or bullpen.  It was always the Rays’ Achilles heel and hurt the National’s record in 2011.  Livan Hernandez is good but, not an ace.  Jason Marquis was really good in 2004 (15-7 with a 3.71 ERA) but was 2-9 with a 6.60 ERA and missed time with bone chips in his elbow.  Dude is supposed to be the No. 2?? Jordan Zimmerman (age 24) should be good, and figures into the National’s future. Oh, and Tom Gorzelanny had the Majors’ worst WHIP last year.  This team is worse than I thought…

Storylines:

Pudge:  I really can’t put Pudge in the weaknesses category even though I wanted to.  Pudge is still a productive Major League Catcher and brings far more than his bat to the roster.  The experience and throwing ability are unmatched in the game but, Wilson Ramos is the future.  He is a very good starting catching option and should not be blocked by the 39 year old Rodriguez.  Ramos needs more than the 79 at bats in 2011 and should start at least half of the team’s games.  I hope that is manager Jim Riggleman’s plan.

Werth the Contract?: Woah, pun intended! Jayson Werth’s contract upset many in the baseball world.  He is not worth the $126,000,000 over 7 years.  Werth needs to be himself and not try to prove he is worth the money (because he’s incapable of playing to that level).  Don’t misunderstand, this guy can play.  I’m just not sure he’s the anchor the Nationals think he should be.  The guy has never had 100 RBI and four years of double digit HR.

Nyjer:  Nyjer Morgan is not liked in Washington.  His suspensions a year ago really upset the franchise and many think he needs to grow up or go home.  If Morgan continues to be a problem in the clubhouse, he will be traded or find himself without a job in 2012.

Strasburg and Harper:  Stephen Strasburg may be ready to pitch again in September but should not be rushed back by the Nationals.  Tommy John surgery’s recovery period is right at a year but, can take longer for some players.  If I were in charge, Strasburg would not even pitch in 2011 (Minor League tune-ups included).  His future is too important to the Nationals than to have him rushed back for a few starts in September to sell tickets.  Bryce Harper is not ready for the everyday grind that is the Major League season.  He could probably help the team this year, adding excitement but is not ready to produce everyday.  The Nats are best suited to let him figure stuff out in the Minors for a year or two.

Prediction:

76-86, 4th Place, NL East.  The Nationals will compete fairly well in 2011 but are not ready to make the jump all the way to playoff contention.  Remember they only won 69 games last year and replaced Adam Dunn with Adam LaRoche.  Don’t expect too much from this team in 2011 despite some pundits’ expectations.

Bold Predictions:

• Jayson Werth plays less than 120 games.  He is productive in his time on the field and hits .315 with 19 HR.
• Ian Desmond goes 20 HR 20 SB. His defense continues to struggle and has 30 errors.
• The Nationals play a four game set against New York in London.
• The above prediction does not come true.
• From a source inside the National’s office of Baseball Operations: Roger Bernadina hits .290 with 22 HRs and 33 SBs while playing a “dirty” Center Field in place of Nyjer Morgan. Also, the source didn’t want to go on record with this but thanks to my dirty reporting…Michael Morse will hit 40 HR this year.

And Now for Something Completely Different:

In case you missed the Bachelor the other night.  You missed a tear jerker.  I know someone who got a noise complaint while on Spring Break because of the yelps from their crying.

I miss Pong.  Greatest video game ever.

I played moonwalker last week and it was awesome.  Michael Jackson is the man.