30 Teams in 30 Days: Day 30 – Baltimore Orioles

Remember when Cal Ripken Jr played 2,632 consecutive games?  That number baffles me.  Vassar College baseball just got done playing our spring trip (6 games in 7 days) and I’m tired, sore, and can barely lift my arm as my shoulder is so tight.  Ripken did this everyday for 16 years! Additionally, we had only two guys (Ichiro, Matt Kemp) play every day in 2010.  Ripken’s still the face of the Orioles and that is not exactly a bad thing.  The Orioles have been competitive in recent years. No, wait they haven’t won 70 games since 2006.  With the additions of Vlad Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derek Lee, the Orioles might be better.  Is this the year they break out of it and break the 70 win plateau??

Projected Lineup:

1. Brian Roberts (2B)
2. Adam Jones (CF)
3. Derrek Lee (1B)
4. Luke Scott (LF)
5. Vlad Guerrero (DH)
6. Nick Markakis (RF)
7. Mark Reynolds (3B)
8. Matt Wieters (C)
9. J.J. Hardy (SS)

Projected Rotation:

• Jeremy Guthrie
• Brian Matusz
• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Justin Duchscherer

Strengths:

3-7:  The Middle of the Orioles Lineup has some major pop.  They can produce home runs and drive in runs.  All of these guys have had seasons of at least 27 HR and 75 RBIs in the last two years.  The potential is there for many balls to fly over the fence at Camden Yards.

Vlad and Derrek:  Derrek Lee is one (injury plagued) year removed from a .306/.393/.579 35 HR and 111 RBI.  The guy was an absolute stud in 2009 and is still fully capable of producing despite his perceived dip in bat speed.  Vlad had a career resurgence in his one year in Texas.  The veteran outfielder hit .300 with 28 HR and 115 RBI.  Also, excluding 2009, Vlad’s last full season where he hit fewer than 25 HR was…. never.

Bullpen:  I really like Kevin Gregg as a closer.  For whatever reason, I feel like hitters do not see the ball out his hand and only blows saves when he fails to throw strikes (that has been a problem in his career).  Combine Gregg with veteran lefty Mike Gonzalez and the Orioles have a good 8th and 9th inning duo.  The problem may be keeping the game close to get it to these guys.

Weaknesses:

Starting Rotation:  I think this is the worst rotation in baseball.  Jeremy Guthrie is not bad.  The guy had a sub-4.00 ERA last year.  Brian Matusz has been serviceable in his career.  4.37 career ERA and started 32 games for the Orioles last year.  The problem is that he’s their No. 2 starter and the Orioles were bad last year.  If you have ever heard of Jake Arrieta, congratulations.  The second year pitcher had 18 starts last year with an ERA over 4.60.  He’s their No. 3.  I’ll keep going…Brad Bergesen had a 1.44 WHIP last year. And Justin Dechscherer can’t stay healthy.  He’s started 32 games in his 10 year career.  My vote would be to try him out in the bullpen and find a different fifth starter.  Chris Tillman has started 23 games in the Bigs but has a 5.61 career ERA to show for it… and 4 wins.  Zach Britton should be the guy by midseason but is yet unproven and should be little more than a left handed Brad Penny.

Storylines:

Hype:  Adam Jones and Matt Weiters were supposed to be the next big things at their respective positions.  Both have proved extremely, amazingly average but may be capable of tapping into their immense potential in 2011.

The Showalter Effect: Buck Showalter took over the Orioles on August 3.  After his arrival the O’s went on a surge and finished the last two months 30-23.  Can this momentum and Showalter’s magic carry over? No.

Is this the year:  The O’s seem to constantly bring in veteran position players and expect them to save the franchise.  The O’s may be better served to bid on pitchers or put all their eggs in their Minor League system, following the plan laid out by the Marlins or Rays who have found success through the draft.

Prediction:

67-95, Last, AL East.  Showalter’s got to make them a better club.  Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee and Vlad bring pop to a lineup that should make this team fun to watch.  They won’t pitch well and should lose some games 9-8 or 13-10.  Poor Orioles fans.

Bold Predictions:

• Mark Reynolds hits 31 HR but improves on his .198 avg from a year ago.  Hitting .264
• Derrek Lee hits 29 HR and .309
• Adam Jones still doesn’t figure it out: .270 with 17 HR and 9 SB
• Jake Arrieta is scheduled for a start mid-June.  Jake Gyllenhaal and Arrieta pull the old switcheroo and Gyllenhaal gets the start going 3 scoreless before a 12 run fourth inning.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I saw Lil’ Kim in the airport on Saturday.  She’s signifantly less attractive than I anticipated given her past red carpet appearances.  Look them up if you want to be impressed.

Cameras started rolling on Monday for “The Hobbit.”  Yes, that is the prequel to the Oscar winning The Lord of the Rings trilogy.

High Tech Apps can help keep you from getting arrested.  Lindsay Lohan should try this out.

We have a spacecraft orbiting Mercury.  I wonder what we will learn.

Keep up with your current events.

Do you have fibroids?

And thus concludes our 30 Teams in 30 Days.  That was fun and we hopefully provided some good insight into each of the teams.  It was long and hard and provided too much rigidity within our blog. We’re never going to do it again and we can now write about whatever we want.

Any comments, questions, or concerns can be directed at [email protected]

-Sean Morash