Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins
The 28-year old had his highest ERA in a full season in his first season since being traded to Minnesota. Steamer projects his 2019 ERA to be headed towards the 5 mark. Despite his success in Tampa Bay, Odorizzi looks like he won’t be set for a big contract as a free agent after this season. Odorizzi doesn’t look like the typical fireballing reliever on the mound, but he could fit the role well.
Odorizzi throws a lot of different pitches as a starter, but throughout his career, only 1 has a positive run value (fastball) and only 1 of the remaining 4 is around average (slider). Not only could focusing on his 2 best pitches help him get more whiffs, but it could help him limit the walks that have hurt him the past few years. Odorizzi, along with many pitchers the Rays have dealt with over the years, has had a lot of success the first time through the order in his career and as of last year, especially compared to later in the game results. In his career, his ERA is only 2.65 with a wOBA allowed of .282, which is well above average among starters. If he moved to the bullpen, Odorizzi could be a very effective late-inning guy.
Yovani Gallardo, Free Agent
The former top-of-the-rotation pitcher hasn’t seen an ERA or FIP under 5 since 2015 and hasn’t pitched over 150 innings since then either. Gallardo is currently a free agent and might have as good of a chance of retiring than finding a major league deal at this stage in his career. But there is a reason to think his career can be saved from a move to the bullpen.
For one, the aging arm can get more rest from a lighter workload. Dropping 1 of his 4 pitches could also help lower his BB/9, which has been above 4 in each of the last 3 seasons. Moving to the bullpen would ensure that his fastball stays over the magic number of 90 mph for even longer, and could help the effectiveness of a pitch that has been negative in each of the last 3 seasons but was one of his better pitches earlier in his career. His changeup has been his worst pitch throughout his career, being worth -1.4 runs per 100 pitches, so dropping that and pitching a below average but effective slider could help out in the long run. His numbers the first time through the order were ultimately still poor in 2018, but in his career, he has still pitched much better the 1st time through than the 3rd, so limiting the innings per game he pitches could see its benefits.
I don’t expect Gallardo to become anywhere close to a star reliever, but an experiment to see if he could hold a spot down may be worth it, especially since he would only cost a minor league contract for any team that chooses to acquire him this offseason.
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