The Arizona Diamondabacks surprised everyone last year outperforming analysts’, and likely even their own expectations. The youngsters who made the 
playoffs in 2011 came into camp this year with a new savvy, and the taste of October lingering on their lips. The addition of Jason Kubel, mechanical adjustments for Chris Young, and an improved rotation had expectations high for 2012. Through 69 games the D’Backs have gone 34-35, but are 8 games back of the Dodgers and it’s time to think about shaking things up.
Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, and Trevor Cahill haven’t quite lived up to expectations but have performed well enough to keep around, and trading away young starting pitching is generally not a good idea; as the Atlanta Braves can attest, you can never have too much. With the emergence of Wade Miley (dude’s been really good: 8-3, 2.30 ERA), and Trevor Bauer dominating at the AAA level, Joe Saunders is a likely candidate to go on the block. The veteran pitcher might be just the piece many teams are looking for at the trade deadline, and the Diamondbacks are in a position to trade from strength and get alot better.
Most baseball nerds have seen the “Free Trevor Bauer” campaign building steam for the better part of 10 months now, but don’t actually know much about the prospect. Bauer often gets compared to a young Tim Lincecum, which is stupid; nobody is a young Tim Lincecum. However, Bauer is a legitimate prospect and has dazzled at AAA all year (he’s got a 2.79 ERA in 42 innings and has struck out 51). He’s ready to compete at the Major League level and I think he brings more potential for wins than running Joe Saunders out there every fifth day. At the very least he’d be more exciting to watch.
That said, Saunders hasn’t been a slouch this year, as his 3.44 ERA will attest. The market for a 31-year old left handed free agent to be will surely be strong, especially if he can keep his ERA sub 3.50. The Orioles are reportedly very interested and the Braves have a newfound need for starting pitching. If those teams can’t get Kevin Towers to bite, and things remain relatively unchanged on the east coast, I’m sure the Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, and Pirates will be making some calls as well.
As for how and where the D’backs can improve, they’ve got to get better production out of third base. Ryan Roberts has mostly manned that position, but he’s a glorified utility player and has posted a .295 OBP this year. Free agent-to-be Kevin Youkilis is the prize of the third base market, and while the years and cash left on his contract must be considered, I think Aramis Ramirez may soon be made available.
Of the other teams that make sense in a Saunders deal, the Pirates seem like a great match. With Pedro Alvarez heating up in a big way (5 HRs, 10 RBI over his last 5 games) it looks like time to move Casey McGehee. Alvarez is the Pirates’ guy, and while the average is still lacking (.218 overall), he’s hit 12 bombs with 30 RBI to this point, and has looked great as of late. McGehee can probably be had for cheap, and he’d certainly represent an upgrade over Ryan Roberts at third base. That said, I’d imagine the Diamondbacks would need a prospect out of the deal in a trade that benefits both teams.
The Royals might be able to work a deal as they are looking to make room for prospect Wil Myers, but it would be complicated, and might not be something the D’backs are looking to get involved in. Myers has played some third in the minors, but the Royals would be more interested in putting him in right field, and it would take a whiole lot more than Joe Saunders to wrest Mike Moustakas from their grasp.
No matter what the move ends up being, the Diamondbacks are improving just by getting rid of Saunders and (heading the masses by) freeing Trevor Bauer. If they can improve at third base with either a longer-term guy like Casey McGehee, or a stretch run rental like Youkilis, so much the better.
At the end of the day, I expect the D’backs to get better somehow, someway… and still miss the playoffs.
-Sean Morash
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