Brewers Keep Winning, Defy Foolish Forecasters

The Milwaukee Brewers had a 6 game lead in the NL Central on May 3.  They’ve played such superb ball–they’re on a 113-win pace–in spite of many forecasters, fortune tellers, and prognosticators picking them to finish fourth in the division.  I was not such a pundit, but my affinity for the Brewers grew from my somewhat misplaced belief in their position players.  Not too long ago, I wrote about how a stud outfield, and deep lineup would lead the Brewers to playoff contention and September relevance. But it’s been the maligned pitching staff that has really shined: the Brewers currently sport the second best ERA in all of baseball.

The outfield that I was so gung-ho about has been pretty good.  As a unit their wOBA–an average of overall production in the batters box–is .345 and ranks eighth in baseball.  Both Gomez and pre-DL Braun (admittedly buoyed by one monster game) look like MVP candidates and have carried most of that load.  Those two were always going to hit, but Khris Davis was a guy from whom I expected big things.  He needs to attempts to pick it up to prove me right.

The other player I had high hopes for was Jean Segura.  He is currently reaching base at a .277 clip.  Oops.  After a great first half to last season, one that garnered an All-Star nod, Segura has not been the same player.  If the Brewers are going to keep this pace up, he will need to be better.

I think Khris Davis and Jean Segura are so integral because I still don’t really believe the Brewers pitching staff.

Last night Wily Peralta dominated, which has become an uncommonly common occurrence.  Peralta currently sports a 2.04 ERA on the season, which ranks second on the Brewers and 11th in baseball.  Peralta is still just 24 and posted a solid rookie season last year.  (I may have mis-characterized him as an innings eater, but his age is a surprise to me.)  Yovani Gallardo is as much to blame for the Brewers struggles last yeasr as Ryan Braun.  Gallardo had posted four consecutive seasons of at least 200 strikeouts before last year’s debacle and he appears to have righted the ship, at least somewhat.  His sub-2.00 ERA is great, but seems unsustainable if he cannot increase his strikeout rate, which is worse than last year’s and currently sits as the worst in his career.  For a groundball pitcher, strikeouts aren’t a necessity, but they sure make things easier.

Kyle Lohse has become an excellent pitcher and seems ready to continue his string of 180 IP, sub 3.40 ERA seasons.  Still, his raw stuff has never been all that impressive.  His sinker is generally 89 and his secondary pitches aren’t usually exceptional.  The results on the secondary pitches have been  a bit different in the first month of this season as hitters have hit just—–

–snip–

I never finished the post as my computer died and I headed to a guacamole-off (the winner of which used the PEDs of the food world: shrimp and bacon).  It’s two days later and I have a chance to reevaluate that initial post.

In the two days that have followed, the Brewers have lost twice and lost something bigger than a pair of games in the big picture.  Ryan Braun was placed on the disabled list retroactive to April 27th.  Braun’s oblique injury means he will be out at least until May 12th, though he expects to be fully healthy at that time.  Still, the Brewers will hope to maintain some semblance of momentum as they lose their biggest star.  Braun’s troubles are not the only issue facing the Brewers over the past two days.  Former closer Jim Henderson has been put on the 15-day DL for what is being described as right shoulder inflammation, but Henderson’s pitching woes are more to blame for the DL move than the troublesome shoulder.

Aside for the closer, the Brewers’ bullpen has been superb.  If you remove Henderson’s line, the bullpen ERA drops to 2.54.  Francisco Rodriguez appears to have regained the form that allowed him to garner Cy Young votes in multiple seasons.  Meanwhile, Tyler Thornburg, Will Smith, and Zach Duke are all proving that they can be relied upon in late game situations.

The team ERA is 3.03.  That improvement is largely thanks to better in-house performances–and Matt Garza has yet to pitch to his ability.  Apparently this is a club that can really pitch.  They may not have flamethrowers or high strikeout machines, but it seems they can be relied upon to keep opposing lineups at bay.

If Braun can get back and get healthy quickly, this team should stay relevant all summer.

It’s looking like I was correct in the post I started on Friday, and a little less correct in my season preview.  The lesson though, remains the same: don’t not believe in the Brewers.

-Sean Morash