Three hundred-plus days of scouting have lead to this.
After spending the past year analyzing each prospect, it’s time that I put out in the open the players that I feel are the true “sleepers” and less-respected players in this draft class, along with the guys that will be the next crop of “busts”.
Breaking down the prospects is a long process yet doesn’t yield much respect. Sticking your neck out on guys who you really like gains that respect, so I ask that you remember this list as these prospects move forward in their career.
Quarterback
Buy: Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
I’ve raved about LeFevour for over a year now and I feel he isn’t that far behind Bradford and Clausen as some have speculated. He doesn’t have the arm strength or NFL-readiness to be a 1st rounder in reality, but on my board he’s a top 32 guy and could develop into a Chad Pennington/Donovan McNabb Pro Bowl player.
Sell: Tony Pike, Cincinnati – Colt McCoy, Texas
Both highly respected and near consensus Top Five quarterback prospects, neither are in my top five and I think both have pretty high “bust” potential.
Pike doesn’t have as strong of an arm and as good of accuracy to make up for his complete lack of mobility, and he’s a career backup at best.
McCoy doesn’t have the size to stay effective and he never has been a great pocket passer in college, and he doesn’t have the NFL quickness to be as effective outside the pocket like he was in college
Running Back
Buy: Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech
Many are selling on Dwyer because he played in a system in college that put him in great situations to look good and didn’t as him to do all that much that translated to the NFL.
However, his burst through the hole, his power when engaging defenders, and his acceleration after the initial hole is what impresses me, and why he isn’t an NFL ready blocker or receiver, if he has a complementary back that can do those things, he can be successful and maybe even a front-line back.
Sell: Charles Scott, LSU
Teams and scouts alike aren’t as high on Scott as they once were, but some teams still feel he’s a 3rd or 4th round guy. He has good intensity, something that’s hard to find in a back, but he lacks the speed, durability, or explosiveness to be a mid to late round guy in the draft.
Wide Receiver
Buy: Andre Roberts, Citadel
Roberts is a guy who I’ve been struggling where to put on my board leading up to the draft. He doesn’t have the size or the physical nature to be a number one receiver, but his route running and quickness make him the most NFL ready number two receiver and he could be an Eddie Royal plus type of player.
Sell: Arrellious Benn, Illinois
After once being in the league of Dez Bryant when it comes to receiver prospects for this draft, Benn has had injuries and inconsistent play that makes me wonder if he’s just a great athlete without the skills to be a starting caliber receiver prospect. He has a very high bust potential for a 2nd round pick.
Tight End
Buy: Andrew Quarless, Penn State
Probably taken off many boards around the NFL thanks to his many run-ins with the law in college and his lack of season long solid game film, Quarless has the skill set to be among the best and most complete tight ends in this draft.
He blocks well, runs a good few routes, is a surprisingly elusive tight end, and has consistent hands. If a team takes a shot on him in the middle to late rounds, they could get a great value and future starter in the mold of Tony Scheffler or Marcedes Lewis.
Sell: Ed Dickson, Oregon
Too much flair and not enough completeness as a prospect, I think Dickson may not have an NFL position and therefore struggle to make an impact. He played a receiver/tight end hybrid role in college and never showed he can be a capable blocker in the run or pass game. He’s a good match-up guy, but isn’t a 2nd or 3rd value in my books.
Offensive Line
Buy: Charles Brown, USC
One of my favorites in this draft, Brown belongs right up there with Russell Okung and is very close to Bryan Bulaga in my books. Brown moves very well for a left tackle and has tight end-like athletic ability.
He’s a bit undersized which is why he might slip a bit, but with an NFL workout program and time to develop, he could be a great NFL left tackle similar to how Joe Staley has developed for the 49ers
Sell: Michael Iupati, Idaho – Anthony Davis, Rutgers
Many fans I’ve talked to are drooling over Iupati and Davis because they are such physical specimens and seem to have extremely high ceilings as prospects. But I still strongly feel that Iupati maxes out as a right tackle with his best fit at guard, which doesn’t make him a mid to high 1st rounder.
And Davis didn’t show me he could play left tackle in the pros and has mental question marks. Both guys have good value past 20, but if your expecting a franchise difference maker, you should be disappointed.
Defensive Tackle
Buy: Arthur Jones, Syracuse
I wonder how alone I am in this evaluation, but I feel that Jones belongs in the 2nd round consideration and is very close to many of the 2nd-3rd nose tackles that this draft is becoming known for.
I think he’s a lesser version of Suh when it comes to athletic ability, but he’s very versatile, has been productive with little talent around him, and has the frame to bulk up and still be effective if need be.
Sell: Jared Odrick, Penn State – Brian Price, UCLA
I hate to sell on Odrick, first off, because I really like the role he offers in the pros. But Top Ten or Top Fifteen? No way in my books. He’s a great role player for your team because he takes advantage of situations and sets up teammates real well. He can be a solid 5-technique end or 3 technique tackle.
Price, on the other hand, is a guy I really don’t feel is worthy of even a 2nd round pick because he struggled too much against mediocre teams and I think he’s an average tackle or end depending on the system.
Defensive End
Buy: Austen Lane, Murray State
He’s fastly becoming a “household sleeper”, Lane is even a better value than the people who say they like him give Lane credit for. Most view Lane as that mid to late round guy who has the athletic ability to be a starter. I feel that he’s a 2nd or 3rd round value that can be a very solid starting 3-4 pass rusher or a well-sized 4-3 defensive end in the pros.
Sell: Ricky Sapp, Clemson – Everson Griffin, USC
To start, I don’t think Ricky Sapp is a starter in the pros. I’ve seen him as high as the Top 40 on some boards, and I just don’t by it. He’s a 4th-6th round guy on my board and could be a valuable asset as a rotational pass rusher in a 3-4 defense.
As for Griffin, I just don’t see him as a Top 20 pick. He has Jamal Anderson, under-performing former 10th pick for the Falcons all over him because he played in a great system in college with great talent around him and doesn’t have the size or technique to be productive in the pros.
Outside Linebacker
Buy: Navarro Bowman, Penn State
Another one of my favorites in this class, I seem alone again in my evaluation and expectation that Bowman will be a Pro Bowl potential guy. Bowman moves well in space, he’s a ball hawk in the run game, he showed signs of zone coverage ability, and most of his weaknesses are very coachable.
Sell: AJ Edds, Iowa
There aren’t really any linebackers who I feel are valued too highly in this draft, but AJ Edds is a rotational back-up in my books, which is somewhat against the grain compared to what many think about him as a mid rounder with starting potential. He’s likely a special teamer over his career and should be a fringe draftable prospect instead of a mid rounder.
Inside Linebacker
Buy: Brandon Spikes, Florida
While most are selling Spikes because it’s the sexy thing to do, I’m not ready to push him down now. We found out that their Spikes isn’t invincible and definitely has some weaknesses. But I still feel that Spikes, despite the fact that he didn’t run well in drills, is going to be a stud at inside linebacker, and now is the time to take advantage for NFL teams now that his stock is so low.
Sell: Donald Butler, Washington
Seemingly the opposite of Spikes in the sense of draft stock, Butler has seen a huge rise thanks to his workouts and made me want to check him out a little further.
Butler looks like a classic case of a workout warrior and doesn’t have the film or the “football movement” to be a starter in the NFL. I still give him a mid to late round grade as a developmental type of linebacker who needs a good system and a time.
Cornerback
Buy: Kyle Wilson, Boise State – Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State
Both players have been jockeying for position behind Joe Haden on my board all season long. As of now, Kyle Wilson is the clear cut guy behind Joe Haden on my board and many others.
Wilson reminds me a lot of Darrelle Revis and his quickness, technique, and athletic ability push him to the Top 15 on my board.
Cox has some character issues and doesn’t fit every system because of his lack of speed, but he’s very physical, has great ball skills, and played very well in college against great receiver prospects like AJ Green and Dez Bryant in practice.
Sell: Kareem Jackson, Alabama – Jerome Murphy, South Florida
Jackson has been a quiet riser leading up to the draft for the past few weeks, and reports are that he’s a potential Top 20 guy. I don’t see it on film as I think played too sporadically in college and took too many chances. I see a bit of Ahmad Carroll in him.
As for Murphy, I think the only way he’s a starter in the pros is if he fits into a Cover 2 defense, and maxes out as a lesser version of Tanard Jackson.
Safety
Buy: Nate Allen, South Florida
There are many differing opinions on Allen and if he can be a star at the next level. Some view him as a solid 1st round talent and a future playmaker in the NFL in the mold of LaRon Landry, while others feel he isn’t athletic enough to be a Pro Bowl talent and should be a mid rounder.
I agree with the 1st round talent evaluation and his instinctive playmaking and his consistency on film prove that.
Sell: Larry Asante, Nebraska
I think Asante could become a spot starter in the pros, so I don’t “not” like him. However, I’ve realized that once a TV personality like Mike Mayock in this case likes a guy, every fan feels their a guru and goes with him. On film, I think Asante showed signs of starting and instinctive play. But he wasn’t overly consistent and is a lesser version of Nate Allen in my opinion and is a 3rd-5th round talent at best.
My Most Confident
Here are the prospects from this list that I feel the most confident about. Please, to test my creditability, remember this prospects that I chose and I truly think that the NFL Draft world, outside of the true NFL scouts, have an inaccurate judgement on these players along with the rest on this list.
Buy:
Dan LeFevour
Andre Roberts
Charles Brown
Navorro Bowman
Nate Allen
Sell:
Tony Pike
Anthony Davis
Everson Griffin
Donald Butler
Kareem Jackson
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