Here’s a good rule in life: if the hype for something starts getting too big, pump the brakes. High expectations lead to high stakes, which lead to disappointment. This was a lesson that was beaten into me over the years, growing up rooting for the Knicks. It’s usually easier on sports fans’ psyches to couch their hopes in a cynical shroud of deprecation and doomsaying. It’s a survival instinct after years of getting your heart broken again and again.
But today, I’m saying to hell with all that, because this ain’t no paint-by-numbers Jimmy “Straight Shot” Dolan team made up of past-their prime stars. Today, I say let’s dream of a decade plus of an elite two-way unit anchored by our homegrown wing-center duo. Today, let’s buy into the hype.
Despite fans’ frustrations with Sam Mitchell’s lineups throughout much of the first half of the 2015-2016 season, the Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Dieng-Towns unit was one of just 11 5-man squads to play at least 500 minutes last year. Of those, seven were playoff teams (Portland, Detroit, Atlanta, Boston, OKC, San Antonio, Golden State) and seven underwent overhaul to key contributors (SA, GS, Boston, Atlanta, LAL, OKC, NY), with the Bucks sure to follow. The only non-playoff teams to play so much together were the Bucks, Lakers, Knicks and Wolves. All of the teams have made it clear who they’re rolling with moving forward.
So what do the stats tell us about this unit?
That’s right, the Wolves’ young core had the highest offensive rating of the bunch, beating out Golden State (though not the Death Lineup, which had an ungodly OffRtg of 142.0 but didn’t play nearly enough minutes to qualify) and OKC. They also had the highest TS% and second highest eFG% of any such squad. Simply put, this unit is potent.
One of the few knocks offensively for this team over the last two seasons has been three point shooting, which means that this unit will almost certainly become even more destructive with a little bit of seasoning and a better offensive playbook. We got a glimpse of that post-All Star break, when the Wolves finally started taking and making shots. Wiggins (41.3%), Rubio (36.9%), LaVine (43.7%), Dieng (36.4%) and Bjelica (a scorching 48.3%) all shot better than 35% from three, though given sample size and past history, it’s reasonable to wonder if that was just a hot streak or if it’s actually maintainable. Is it likely that Rubio will continue to shoot that well on three attempts a game? Probably not, but it’s possible.
What is likely is that KAT and (hopefully) Shabazz will shoot better than the 30% marks they coughed up after the All-Star break. Tyus Jones and Bjelly should be ready to contribute meaningful minutes, and Brandon Rush is nothing if not a shooter. As for Wiggins, it’s worth pointing out that Kobe only shot better than 35% from three four times in his career. As long as he can be on the right side of league average, his athleticism, savvy post play and shot-creating ability should compensate.
What’s most important is that few young teams get the chance to play such heavy minutes together so early in their careers. Despite having three starters 21 and younger, these guys know how to play together already. Most encouragingly, they seem to understand their roles late in games and embrace them. There were several games last season where the last two minutes saw Towns and Wiggins morph into a two-way symbiotic monster, smothering their marks on defense before running an increasingly more impossible to defend pick and roll. Wiggins, for his part, seems to relish having the ball in his hands in the last two minutes
Thibodeau has also spent the last year as a coaching nomad, wandering to and fro, offering insight when asked and soaking up ideas and styles from many of the best coaches around the league. I’m expecting some interesting experimentation from him, especially early in the season. How about a Rubio-Dunn-LaVine-Wiggins-KAT small-ball lineup? Or a Dunn-Wiggins-Rush-KAT-Aldridge bruiser squad? With this much positional versatility, the options are endless for Thibs, and that’s exactly what you need in today’s NBA.
There are a lot of ingredients that make a championship team, but the way I see it, the biggest factor for the Wolves will be the man wearing 22 on his back. Now, this is far from a slight to Towns. It’s clear to anyone watching that Towns is a future superstar, a 20-year old man-child who seems to do no wrong on or off the court. He has all the makings of a franchise player. But it’s no coincidence that all of Shaq and Hakeem’s rings came with wiry, athletic two-way wings handling much of the scoring load.
So I’m not asking for much. Just that Wiggins follows in the footsteps of Clyde Drexler, Kobe, D-Wade, et al.
I’m a big believer in Wiggins, but his future superstar status seems like less of a lock than Towns’. This will be a big season for Air Canada. If he can make a defensive leap, this could be the start to many years of post-season action to come.
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