The Cincinnati Reds finished last season with the second best record in the NL. They had an immensely successful season and played top quality baseball throughout, despite having to weather a few serious injuries. The playoffs, however, were a different story. The injury bug bit again and the Reds fell in the NLDS. In 2013, they will look to improve on upon last year’s strong showing and they have all the pieces to run away with the NL Central again.
Projected Lineup:
- Shin-Soo Choo, Cf
- Brandon Phillips, 2b
- Joey Votto, 1b
- Jay Bruce, Rf
- Todd Frazier, 3b
- Ryan Ludwick, Lf
- Ryan Hanigan, C
- Zack Cozart, Ss
Projected Rotation:
- Johnny Cueto
- Mat Latos
- Aroldis Chapman
- Bronson Arroyo
- Mike Leake
- Homer Bailey
Strengths:
Lineup: This team has one of the deepest batting orders in baseball. There is no spot, top to bottom, that screams weakness; every out is a tough one. Choo is the leadoff hitter they’ve needed so badly in recent seasons and is a major offensive upgrade over Drew Stubbs. Votto is one of the five best hitters in baseball and is a perennial MVP candidate. Bruce has a ton of power. Frazier got Rookie of the Year votes last year and may have won if not for Bryce Harper stealing the show. Hanigan emerged as a legitimate top flight catching option at an important postion. This lineup could go head to head with anyone in baseball and will carry the team.
Starting Pitching: While the rotation isn’t up there with the Nationals, it is solid top to bottom. Cueto and Latos are two legitimate top of the rotation guys who should be tough in a short series. If they can stay healthy at the top, watch out. Arroyo is a savvy veteran who knows how to get outs, and Leake and Bailey are two of the better bottom rotation guys in the league.
Aroldis Chapman: There is a ton of debate about the wisdom of moving Aroldis Chapman to the starting rotation. I personally think that it is not a great idea, though the reasons for doing it are clear and compelling. Either way, when you have a guy as unhittable as Chapman on your roster, that’s a strength.
Bullpen: Sean Marshall, Jon Broxton, Logan Ondrusek, Sam Lecure, maybe Chapman. That’s tough.
Weaknesses:
Manager: Dusty Baker has a history of getting close, and of never finishing the job.
Outfield defense: None of the Reds’ three outfielders are natural centerfielders. Choo and Bruce belong in right and Ludwick is a below average left fielder. The plan is to shift Choo to center and hope for the best with Bruce as the backup option but even if that works, the outfield D will be among the worst in baseball. If all else fails, the Reds could call up speedster Billy Hamilton to play center but even he is a recently converted shortstop. Rest assured, there will be fly balls falling in in the Great American Smallpark.
Shortstop: Shortstop has been a tough postion to fill in recent years but Zack Cozart is nothing to write home about. He’s young and the Reds expect some decent things from him, but he hit only .246 last year. He showed some decent pop though, with 15 homers in his first full season in the Bigs. If Cozart can develop the way the team hopes and turn into an average offensive player at worst, this team could really be something to watch.
Aroldis Chapman: Chapman was lights out in the ‘pen; moving him to the rotation is risky. Will he be CJ Wilson or Joba Chamberlain?
Ace: The Reds’ rotation is strong but they lack a true ace. Is there anyone on the team that you would feel confident lining up against Stephen Strasburg in a pivotal Game 7?
Storylines:
What about Billy Hamilton? When will the fastest man in baseball make his debut?
Will Votto and Cueto stay healthy?
Can Frazier and Hanigan repeat strong 2012 seasons?
How will Chapman fair in the rotation? Will this experiment last?
Prediction
95-67, First place NL Central. The Reds won 97 game last season and they might be even better this go around, but I don’t feel comfortable projecting that a team will get more than 95 wins. Too much can go wrong. Plus, their lousy outfield will probably cost them a few.
Bold Predictions:
- Joey Votto finishes second in the NL MVP voting
- Billy Hamilton gets called up in August–and still steals 25 bases
- Aroldis Chapman finishes the year with 15 saves
- The Reds advance to the NLCS
- The Reds consider changing their name to the Cyan’s
-Max Frankel
Stat of the Day: Jay Bruce has increased both his HR and RBI totals in each of his five Big League seasons.
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