By Josh Mansilla (@Manzilla36)
Throughout the 2016 NFL season, NFL handicapper Josh Mansilla will be providing his weekly plays, along with a brief write-up on how he sees the games playing out. We’ll track his picks alongside those of other capper, Dan Urda, to see who best assisted our readers throughout the season. Dan’s picks for Week 4 can be found on this week’s podcast.
Season Records
Josh Mansilla: 2-1
Dan Urda: 9-9
Bengals -7 (Thursday Night Football)
Editor’s Note: Josh mentioned that even with the line moving up to 7.5 in a lot of books, he still likes the Bengals at that number.
I lost a tough one last week as the Saints D just did not show up. Add that to a rare Drew Brees pick-6 in the red zone and it was smooth sailing for the Atlanta Falcons. In this matchup, we have a Bengals team that sits at 1-2 and lost a rare game at home last week to a very impressive Broncos team. The dominance of the Broncos D is no secret and they let that be known with a win on the road in a tough environment. The Bengals will be extra motivated this week and I like their offense to rebound and be very productive. What better opponent to do that against than one of the league’s worst pass defenses.
Although the Dolphins got their first win last week, it was at home to the Cleveland Browns and they needed overtime to do it. The Fins are now back on the road (where they are 0-2 on the season) facing a motivated Bengals team, and frankly, Miami is just not a good team. This game is a must win for Cincy, as they do not want to fall to 1-3 so early on in the season looking up at the Steelers and a surprising Baltimore team in their division.
The Bengals are 19-5-1 SU at home dating back to the 2013 season and have only lost back-to-back home games once during that time period. Look for the Bengals to get their ground game going early which in turn will open up to big plays in the air attack. AJ Green had a quiet 8-77 stat line against a top defense last week and I think he erupts for a monster afternoon and is a must start in DFS lineups. Let’s start a new winning streak backing a home team that is 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games dating back to the 2013 season (playoffs not included).
Survivor Pick
I am going with the safest play on the board, that being the Cincinnati Bengals for the reasons I mentioned above. Arizona is also a solid pick looking to bounce back at home after a tough road loss. The most popular pick will be the Redskins and let’s see if we can a top pick to finally fall this week.
Good luck.
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