With the Memorial Day weekend providing a natural break in the schedule, we take a look at how teams will finish the season (Part 1), and how individual player awards are shaking out (Part 2).
1. Nimble Jacks (Current Record: 6-0, Point Differential: +151, Remaining Strength of Schedule: 0.375, Projected Record: 9-1)
One of these years the Nimble Jacks are going to fall off. As more and more talent enters the Kronum League, it’s only natural that some opposing team will eventually bring down the champs. There were whispers that the loss of offensive dynamo Joe Petrino this past offseason would be the first domino to topple the Jacks’ dynasty. However, much to the chagrin of everyone not wearing maroon and orange, Nimble Jacks version 4.0 is firing on all cylinders once again. Aside from their 6-0 record, the Nimble Jacks also sport far and away the league’s best point differential, with 48 and 35 point victories over the Work Horses and Jet Sets under their belts.
It all starts on the defensive end where the team has easily the best save percentage in the league at 50.2%. The defensive field players also wreck havoc as the team is first in the league in blocks per game and second in steals per game. The offense is no slouch either, as the Jacks rank second in shooting percentage at 43.3% and 1st in assists per game (34.7). The Jacks attack from all angles of the field, evidenced by their first place rank in both goal and flex zone points per game.
The Jacks face the bottom two teams in the league in the Horses and Throwbacks before finishing up the season against the Urban Legends and Sets. We saw in earlier games against the Throwbacks and Night Owls that the Jacks can be beaten if an opponent plays a full 60 minutes against them. So while it’s possible to expect one slip-up down the stretch, the Jacks should still cruise into the top overall seed.
2. Evergreens (Current Record: 5-2, Point Differential: +33, Remaining SoS: 0.278, Projected Record: 7-3)
Whenever an expansion team enters a league, at best people will say they have some nice pieces and could sneak away with a few wins here and there. With their initiation to the Kronum League approaching, the Evergreens were talking about serious contention for a title and people just wrote it off as typical PR jargon. After all, are they supposed to come in saying they expect to lose? Little did those critics know, however, that this expansion team would quickly form one of the most dynamic and well-rounded squads the league has to offer.
The Greens feature a swarming defense that ranks second in the league in blocks per game, while a relatively inexperienced group of wedgebacks have more than held their own in goal. Offensively, the arms are there to convert from long range, while the team has already shown an acute sense of timing for hitting players for backdoor dunks in the goal zone. Everyone is taking the Evergreens seriously now.
No team has an easier remaining schedule than the Evergreens, as they finish up the season with the Jet Sets and the bottom two teams in the Throwbacks and Work Horses. Given their level of play so far this season, they should have no trouble winning at least two of those remaining games. Given the contests remaining and that they own the tiebreaker over the Urban Legends following their 118-97 victory over the Legends in Round 6, the Evergreens should secure that coveted second first-round bye.
3. Urban Legends (Current Record: 4-2, Point Differential: +1, Remaining SoS: 0.458, Projected Record: 6-4)
In an odd statistical anomaly, the Urban Legends have rarely been involved in close games this season; they have had only one game decided by less than 15 points, their 86-84 victory over the Throwbacks in Round 2. One possible explanation is that teams know what the Legends are going to do, attack from the wedge zone and the cross zone. They have scored more than triple the amount of wedge zone points as the next highest team and 69% of their total points have come from those two zones. It’s usually evident early on whether the opponent has a plan in place to stop the Legends’ attack and their offense can stagnate in those instances. For the Urban Legends to emerge from the middle of the pack and beat some of the elite defenses in the league, they’ll have to introduce a little more scoring from the flex zone to balance things out.
The Legends finish the season with games against the Throwbacks and Work Horses wrapped around meetings with the Jet Sets and Nimble Jacks. The Legends will almost surely win at least a couple of those contests but it’s unlikely they’ll earn the sweep likely needed to bypass the Evergreens. Look for the Legends to take on the lowest seed remaining in the first round of the playoffs.
4. Jet Sets (Current Record: 3-3, Point Differential: -30, Remaining SoS: 0.654, Projected Record: 5-5)
The Jet Sets are still a tough team to get a handle on at this point in the season. Much of that is likely due to the fact that they’ve rarely had their complete team out on the field, as Matt Parsons, Nick DeLuca, Mike Quintans, and Jeff Regensburg have all missed at least some time so far. Statistically, the Jet Sets look like world beaters, as they rank first in shooting percentage (46.0%) and second in assists per game offensively, while also ranking second in the league in save percentage at 46.3%. Then you look again, and the Sets actually have the second-worst point differential in the league, only ahead of the Work Horses, as their 3-3 record stands on the back of a pair of one-point victories over the Evergreens and Throwbacks. Most statisticians will tell you that point differential is more indicative of a team’s true level of play than record, but can you penalize a team for still winning while missing key players. It will be interesting to see what direction the Sets head in moving forward.
The Jet Sets finish the season with a murderer’s row of opponents, taking on the top three teams in the Nimble Jacks, Evergreens, and Urban Legends, plus a Night Owls team that defeated them 122-115 in Round 5. The Sets have all but locked up a playoff berth already, so while they may not come out ahead in too many of these difficult match-ups, it will be an important period for their team to gel with a full roster on the field. They certainly have the potential to take down any opponent come playoff time.
5. Night Owls (Current Record: 2-5, Point Differential: -16, Remaining SoS: 0.278, Projected Record: 4-6)
No team symbolizes a high-risk, high-reward strategy quite like the Night Owls. A frenetic quality to their defense has the Owls first in steals per game, but may hang their wedgebacks out to dry at times, as they rank next to last in save percentage at 42.6%. That high-stakes philosophy extends to the offensive side of the ball. Not only are the Owls first in cross zone points per game, but it’s not usual to see multiple shots at the crown during a single Night Owls’ possession, in lieu of taking the more traditional shot at the chamber. As a result, the Night Owls are a threat to anyone on a given day, but they have also blown late leads against both the Jacks and Evergreens. They’ll need to find a more consistent level of play to really make some noise going forward.
The Night Owls have the same remaining schedule as the Evergreens, facing the two last place teams in addition to the Jet Sets, who they have already defeated. Barring another untimely suspension to captain and leading scorer Kyle McGrath, one would expect the Owls to capitalize on this relatively easy slate of games to win a couple contests and secure a playoff berth.
6. Throwbacks (Current Record: 1-5, Point Differential: -24, Remaining SoS: 0.654, Projected Record: 2-8)
Everyone’s trendy pick prior to the season to shoot up the league standings, the Throwbacks have still yet to correct things on the offensive end, leading to a dissapointing start that has them on the precipice of missing the playoffs altogether. The Throwbacks rank next to last in the league in shooting percentage at 38.2%, and are the only team in the league not averaging 100 points per game (93.2). One way to get things going offensively would be to earn some easy points in transition through more pressure defense. While the wedgebacks have performed adequately, the team is last in the league in both steals and blocks per game. Their grind-it-out style won’t cut it without any sort of offensive efficiency; it might be time to shake things up a bit.
The Throwbacks have performed much better of late, losing tight matches to the Nimble Jacks and Jet Sets, wrapped around their lone win against the Work Horses. Unfortunately, they finish with that same grueling schedule as the Jet Sets, taking on the Night Owls before finishing against the top three teams in the league. It’s hard to see the blue and gold earning much momentum facing that slate of opponents. The Throwbacks’ 111-90 victory over the Work Horses in Round 6 may loom large as a tiebreaker in securing that final playoff spot.
7. Work Horses (Current Record: 1-5, Point Differential: -115, Remaining SoS: 0.654, Projected Record: 2-8)
With some high-powered scoring options joining the Work Horses this past offseason, many felt the Horses’ winless campaign a season ago would be put far behind them. Alas, it’s been more of the same in 2013 as the Horses sport, by far, the worst point differential in the league, and have been blown out of a handful of games. Both sides of the ball have given the Work Horses trouble, as they are last in the league in shooting percentage at 37.8%, and last in the league with a 41.8% save percentage. Defensively, the team’s field players need to do a better job rotating quickly to force more difficult shots; too often, Work Horses wedgebacks are left on an island in one-on-one situations. Offensively, there needs to be more variety in their attack as it has become far too easy for opposing defenses to key in on the Horses’ main scorers out top.
In another instance of the poor get poorer, the Work Horses also finish the season facing the top three teams in the league, in addition to a rematch against the Night Owls, against whom they recorded their lone win in a close 105-101 victory. The way the team has been playing, it would be a stretch to envision the Horses earning more than one addtional win going forward. With the Throwbacks having won the head-to-head matchup, it looks like the Work Horses may be the first team in league history not to advance to postseason play.
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