The current 5-game losing streak is the longest for Oregon football in 20 years.
Already they’ve ended runs of dominance over Washington (12 years) Cal (8 years) and Colorado (5 years).
They’re in danger of missing a bowl game for the first time since 2004, their last losing season.
This is a team that needs a win, not just to arrest the slide, but to restore some of their pride and confidence.
In these five remaining games they need to show themselves and an increasingly skeptical fanbase that they’re on the right track, that they’ve identified their quarterback of the future and that the defense can show progress and become competitive.
They can start by building on that “moral victory” in the Cal game, the second-half comeback that fell just short.
They can start by getting off to a better start. In the last two games they’ve been outscored 35-0 in the first quarter. In their four conference losses, they’ve led in a game just once.
For the season they’re averaging 9.1 penalties a game, ranking 126th in the country. The defense is dead last in yards per game, 126th of 128 teams in scoring.
Even worse than last year.
On Saturday they face an Arizona State that is reeling. After a 4-0 start they lost two quarterbacks and fell into the abyss, have lost 3 of their last four games.
The Sun Devils are down to a true freshman at quarterback. During the 4-0 start they were scoring over 48 points a game, but with starter Brady White out and backup Manny Wilkins hobbled offensive production has plummeted to just over 22 points a game.
To compensate, head coach Todd Graham and his staff will ramp up the trickeration and misdirection. The young Oregon front seven has to be ready for reverses, halfback passes, flea flickers, waggles, combination routes, run-pass options, pump fakes and tosses against the grain. Every gadget play that’s been successfully tried against them in the losing skein will surface in some form again.
ASU will also try to pound them with the run. They have two good tailbacks in Demario Richard and Kaelin Ballage. Graham will challenge his offensive line to pick up the slack for their young quarterback. He’ll tantalize them with cut-ups of the dominance opponents have established over the suspect Oregon front seven, five uninterrupted weeks of opponents running straight ahead, taking yards in chunks from the soft, hapless Duckies.
Defensively, the Devils are likely to blitz Justin Herbert relentlessly. Their defense is among the national leaders with 23 sacks and 61 tackles per loss, but the secondary is vulnerable, giving up 386 passing yards per game.
Herbert has to recognize the blitz and identify his hot read, while his young offensive line (4 redshirt freshmen starters) has to show progress in picking everyone up and recognizing games, stunts and blitzes up front.
After six touchdown passes in his first road start, this will be a test to see how well the young quarterback can handle disruption and maximum pressure, particularly on passing downs.
Herbert has a marvelous quick release and the size at 6-5 to see plays develop. Coaches have praise his Mariota-like ability to grasp things, uncommon poise and command for a soft-spoken young player.
He’ll be a great quarterback given time to develop, but the Ducks need him to show more of that promise right away. They need a win. They have to demonstrate some progress to sell season tickets and convince recruits that the slide is not inexorable and inevitable.
To coin a phrase, the duck stops here.
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