By Sean Kennedy
So far this offseason, we’ve heard from every media outlet about what a horrendous on-court product the Sixers will have. But at long last, Vegas has thrown it’s hat into the ring and projected the level of ineptitude for our hometown 76ers, as lines are posted at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino:
More NBA season win totals @LVSuperBook: 76ers 16.5 Bulls 56.5 Celtics 27.5 Bobcats 27.5 Spurs 55.5
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 1, 2013
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That’s right folks! Vegas projects the Sixers to win 16.5 games this season, significantly below the league-worst record of 20-62 compiled by the Orlando Magic last year. While falling short of the all-time low for an 82-game season of 9-73 by the 1973 edition of the 76ers, Vegas certainly likes Philadelphia’s chances to gain pole position in the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes. With the line now available, it’s as good a time as any to dig into the schedule and form a projected win total of our own. Let’s see if we agree with our friends in the desert.
The main factors I will be examining are whether each team is rested (i.e. playing the tail end of a back-to-back), venue (home or away), and general quality of opponent. In really digging into the schedule, I found that while the Sixers do play a high number of back-to-backs overall with 20, they’re actually at somewhat of an advantage in that area. On 14 occasions, Philadelphia’s opponent is playing their second game in two nights against a rested Sixers team, but that situation is reversed only 9 times.
Below are the 7 groups of games into which I’ve divided the season.
Group 1 (The Classic Schedule Loss): Sixers on second leg of back-to-back against rested opponent.
11/2 vs. CHI, 11/16 @ NO, 12/14 vs. POR, 12/29 @ LAL, 1/2 @ SAC, 1/7 @ CLE, 1/11 vs. NYK, 2/1 @ DET, 2/10 @ GS
Everything is working against Philadelphia in these contests (or for them if you view losses as a positive outcome). The back-to-back situation puts them at a disadvantage in addition to the likely talent disparity between the rosters. Also, six of these nine contests are on the road, while the remaining three games are against above-average foes. I feel safe chalking all nine of these games up as losses.
Running Total: 0-9
Group 2 (A Good Team Would Take Advantage): Opponent on second leg of back-to-back against rested Sixers team.
10/30 vs. MIA, 11/11 vs. SA, 11/27 @ ORL, 12/3 vs. ORL, 12/11 @ MIN, 12/28 @ PHO, 1/15 vs. CHA, 1/27 vs. PHO, 1/29 @ BOS, 2/12 @ UTH, 12/26 vs. ORL, 3/8 @ UTH, 3/12 vs. SAC, 3/29 vs. DET
However, the Sixers are not a good team. Unfortunately for Wiggins advocates, all four of their meetings with fellow tankers Phoenix and Utah take place in this group where it’s most likely for Philadelphia to claim victory. Of the 7 home games listed here excluding Miami and San Antonio, they should win four or five times, in addition to winning one or two of the battles on the road where there are no real juggernauts. Let’s conservatively pencil Philadelphia in for a 6-8 record for this group.
Running Total: 6-17
Group 3 (War of Attrition): Both teams playing their second game in two nights.
11/9 @ CLE, 11/23 @ IND, 12/7 vs. DEN, 12/21 @ MIL, 1/18 @ CHI, 1/25 vs. OKC, 3/2 @ ORL, 3/15 vs. MEM, 3/22 @ CHI, 4/5 vs. BKN, 4/12 @ CHA
It’s difficult to make a projection when both teams will have played the night before. Many factors go into that back-end contest, such as starters’ minutes in the first game or how closely fought the prior tussle was for a team. That being said, all four home games here are against quality opponents and are likely losses, but I could see Philadelphia stealing one or two on the road against the likes of Orlando, Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Cleveland. I can comfortably project a 2-9 record in this group.
Running Total: 8-26
Group 4 (Better Chance of Winning the Lottery): Road games against average to elite opponents, both teams rested.
11/15 @ ATL, 11/18 @ DAL, 12/16 @ BKN, 1/1 @ DEN, 1/4 @ POR, 1/22 @ NYK, 2/3 @ BKN, 2/9 @ LAC, 3/4 @ OKC, 3/10 @ NYK, 3/17 @ IND, 3/24 @ SAS, 3/27 @ HOU, 3/31 @ ATL, 4/11 @ MEM, 4/16 @ MIA
No real need to go into too much detail with this group. These teams are good; the Sixers are not. It’s difficult to see Philadelphia winning more than 2 of these 16 contests.
Running Total: 10-40
Group 5 (Blind Squirrel Finds a Nut): Road games against bottom-tier opponents, both teams rested.
11/1 @ WAS, 12/1 @ DET, 12/6 @ CHA, 12/13 @ TOR, 1/20 @ WAS, 4/4 @ BOS, 4/9 @ TOR
Going into someone else’s house to take care of business, these are the games playoff teams win. Needless to say, the Sixers don’t fall into that category. Still, none of these opponents are particularly fearsome and the team should fall into a couple wins. 2-5 in this group.
Running Total: 12-45
Group 6 (Home Cookin’ Ain’t Enough): Home games against average to elite opponents, both teams rested.
1/4 vs. GSW, 11/13 vs. HOU, 12/9 vs. LAC, 12/20 vs. BKN, 1/6 vs. MIN, 1/17 vs. MIA, 1/31 vs. ATL, 2/21 vs. DAL, 3/14 vs. IND, 3/19 vs. CHI, 3/21 vs. NYK
It’s always nice to have the home crowd on your side when going up against a superior opponent. Unfortunately for the Sixers, fans will likely show up in equal numbers to watch star players on the opposing teams as root for the boys in red, white, and blue. It’s hard to project more than 2 wins in this group, with those likely from among the Minnesota, Atlanta, Dallas portion.
Running Total 14-54
Group 7 (Separating the Men from the Tankers): Home games against bottom-tier opponents, both teams rested.
11/6 vs. WAS, 11/8 vs. CLE, 11/20 vs. TOR, 11/22 vs. MIL, 11/29 vs. NOH, 1/10 vs. DET, 1/24 vs. TOR, 2/5 vs. BOS, 2/7 vs. LAL, 2/18 vs. CLE, 2/24 vs. MIL, 3/1 vs. WAS, 3/2 vs. CHA, 3/14 vs. BOS
If Philadelphia is truly serious about tanking, these are most critical games on the schedule. Maybe Spencer Hawes’ back acts up right before tip-off or Evan Turner decides to rest a nagging hamstring injury. Playing at the Wells Fargo Center, against some teams tanking just as hard as they are, the Sixers are bound to find their way into some wins. 4-10 for this group sounds about right.
Projected Finish: 18-64
Shockingly, in taking a close look at the schedule, I actually like the over for Philadelphia. When you really break things down, 16.5 is an incredibly low total. While my first instinct was to side with a Philadelphia under total no matter what, an in-depth analysis has really slowed me down in that regard. Fortunately for the future of the franchise, even projecting 18 wins, I still feel the Sixers will very much be in the running to earn themselves the most ping pong balls in the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes. No matter how you slice it, there will be plenty of losses on the horizon.
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