Expansion Explosion: Timeline of the Future of College Football

With the chaos of this expansion frenzy that has ripped the headlines of the college football world these past few months, rumors are turning into likelihoods, and dream scenarios are starting to be put to paper. Now that Nebraska is officially a member of the Big Ten, the winds of change in college football are starting to pick up some weight.

I have gathered all that I’ve heard in the media and from sources and also in people I’ve talked with somewhat close to the situation, and I’ve formatted a timeline of events that could occur over the next few months/years.

Keep in mind that even if expansion begins, it likely won’t start until at least 2011, probably 2012. With that, we’ll take a look at possibly the future of College Football and indirectly, the future of Division 1 college sports.

Step 1: Missouri, Nebraska, and Notre Dame to the Big Ten

With Nebraska joining the Big Ten, all in all ,it really makes sense. Other than the slight devaluing of the Big Ten Network due to adding another state to provide coverage for, Nebraska plays a similar brand of football, is not on good terms with the Big 12 brass, and has a rich history like many Big Ten schools.

While it may be an either/or with Nebraska and Notre Dame, if Notre Dame says yes, the Big Ten most definitely won’t say no. Notre Dame fits perfectly geographically, already has a rivalry in the conference with Michigan, fits in their academic background, and adds even more tradition. This has been in the making for years, and it seems like it could finally come to fruition.

As for Missouri, they’d likely be a tag along if the first two go the Big Ten, which looks very likely. If they jump to the Big Ten, the conference will have 14 teams, enough to split into two divisions and have a championship game. Plus, the rivalry with Illinois helps in easing themselves in the conference.

Step 2: Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado to Pac-10

With Nebraska and Missouri out of the conference, the dominoes likely start to fall. While those two aren’t the straw that would break the camels back, they could be the scapegoat for the conference to jump ship to the very appealing Pac-10.

Because of the possible Pac-10, Big 12 merger, the new Pac-16 could get their own network like the Big Ten and likely become the most star-studded conference in the NCAA.

Texas has to drag along Tech and A&M due to their connection, and the same goes for Oklahoma. Colorado, on the other hand, has been rumored to be in the mix of switching conferences because of their fan base with the West Coast area and their fit with the geography of the conference.

Step 3: Miami (FL) and Florida State to the SEC

Although it may seem unrelated this could be the SEC’s way of “keeping up with the Jones’s” on the other side of the country. The SEC, after the Big Ten, has been the next likely candidate for their own network, and if the Pac-16 gets one, the SEC won’t want to fall too far behind.

By adding two more nationally recognized historic teams that fit geographically, the SEC can continue to be the best conference talent-wise in the country and add even more tradition to a rich-history of great teams and players in each era of college football history. However, this likely won’t happen for at least another year after the first set of expansion occurs.

Step 4: Cincinnati/West Virginia and South Florida to the ACC

Seemingly in reaction to the SEC expansion, the ACC will try to scoop up the Big East team’s of their choice. South Florida is the most likely to be wanted by the ACC because of their fiery fan base and so the ACC still has a stronghold in Florida for recruiting purposes.

They will have to choose, then, between West Virginia and Cincinnati. Cincinnati is the worst fit geographically, but has a better current program. West Virginia has been a BCS threat most of the past few years and with it’s closeness to the Coastal division teams, they are the likely choice.

Step 5: Temple, East Carolina to the Big East

After South Florida and Cincinnati/West Virginia are gone, it will be the Big East’s turn to expand to compensate for the loss of two major programs. The main choices would be Buffalo, Temple, and East Carolina, but with Buffalo’s lackluster track record outside of the Turner Gill years, the conference is much more likely to send out an invitation to Temple and take them back.

As for the 2nd team, East Carolina has been the best non-BCS team on the East Coast for a while now, and with few options to consider, they’ll take the C-USA consistent contender and hope they can use the Big East recruiting ability to get to a BCS level.

Step 6: Richmond and James Madison to the Big East

While it wasn’t part of the idea of expansion, these two schools have been paving their way to the FBS level for a few years now. Both teams have been perennial FCS top-tier teams and likely could compete with any non-BCS school in the country.

Now that these two schools are in the process of updating their facilities, most importantly their football fields, they can make the jump to the Big East and probably increase the talent in the already lackluster Big East football conference. Plus, both are solid basketball teams, so the fit is there as well.

Step 7: Baylor, Boise State, and Houston to the Mt. West, Iowa State to the C-USA, Kansas and Kansas State are Independent

With no place left to go, the Baylor Bears take the likely offer from the Mountain West and, along with Houston and Boise State, form a very BCS worthy conference. Also left out in the dust thanks to the Big 12 disintegration, Iowa State is left to fill the shoes of Houston leaving the C-USA for the Mountain West, and both fit pretty well geographically and talent-wise. And with three other BCS possible crashers in the conference, Boise State sees the potential of the Mountain West and hops on board as well. If these three join the conference, that makes four Top 25 teams and two more likely around the Top 25-40 most of the season in Baylor and Houston.

Finally, that leaves Kansas and Kansas State out in the cold for at least 2 years after the Big 12 is gone. I can see the Big Ten or SEC look to expand to bring both of these schools on board, but not until at least one of these teams looks like a consistent power in football. Still, the basketball aspect of these programs may be enough to lure the SEC down the road.

Step 8: Mountain West Becomes BCS Eligible

After smaller schools challenged the BCS system in a court room, the NCAA stood by the stance of no playoff. However, if Boise State, Utah, TCU, and BYU, arguably the four best non-BCS conference team, are joined in one conference with some other decent programs, like Houston, Baylor, and Air Force, they could get their wish of an in-direct fair way for each school.

With every major conference having 10 or more teams and likely every conference having a championship game, there is a pseudo playoff idea and therefore as far as the FBS will get to a playoff.