ONE TO START, ONE TO SIT
One to Start, One to Sit is a weekly column where each NFL game will be evaluated and the best/worst fantasy match-ups will be listed.
Tonight’s Matchup: BUFFALO BILLS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Best Option
BUF- Fred Jackson
CLE- Josh Gordon / Jordan Cameron
This is a tough game to pick for Buffalo players. Star RB CJ Spiller is a game time decision, the Browns defense has been great thus far ranking in the top 10 in both passing (9th) and rushing (4th) yards given up per game, and have been better offensively since trading RB Trent Richardson and starting new QB Brian Hoyer. So where do you go with this? In my opinion, you go with the guy who you think is the biggest playmaker on the offense and who you think will get a load of attempts. In my opinion, it’s none other than Fred Jackson. The Bills’ defense is a strong consideration since they did pick off 5 of Joe Flacco’s passes last week. Remember though, a week prior they made Geno Smith look good so it’s hard to take into consideration a defense that can be so hot and cold at the same time.
As for Fred Jackson, even if co-RB CJ Spiller does play, he’ll be very limited with his ankle injury, leaving Jackson as the figurehead of this offense. Even for a 32 year old, Jackson is still performing very well, leading the Bills in rushing yards and TD’s while only having nearly 2/3’s the amount of carries as Spiller. Add in his pass catching ability, and you may have a rb that might actually crack the Browns stellar rushing defense.
I’ll be the first to admit it, I doubted Brian Hoyer. Is he for real? We’ll find out by the end of the season, but after last week’s performance against the Bengals (269 yards, 2 TD’s), he’s earned a whole new respect from me. The Bills have struggled against the pass, as well as the run. Since starting Hoyer at QB, the Browns have thrown the ball 66.4% of the time. Those who’ve excelled in this switch have been TE Jordan Cameron (17 catches, 23 targets, 157 yards, 4td’s) and WR Josh Gordon (14 catches, 28 targets, 217 yards, 1 td). The Bills have struggled covering pass catching TE’s as well as #1 WR’s so far this season (Torrey Smith, Greg Olsen, and Danny Amendola all had big numbers against this secondary). While it’s still hard to say at this point just who’ll have a better game between Cameron and Gordon, both are must starters in any fantasy league. The Browns are still trying to establish a run game, and with the way Hoyer is throwing the ball, you know either Gordon or Cameron will be their red zone threat.
Worst Option
BUF- Stevie Johnson
CLE- Willis McGahee
Insert whomever Joe Haden is covering here, especially after last week’s performance by Haden (holding Bengals star WR AJ Green to just 51 yards). While Johnson does lead the bills in targets (35) and is EJ Manuel’s go to guy. It wouldn’t shock me one bit to see other receiving options Scott Chandler, and Robert Woods come up with better numbers in this game.
In a week or two this spot won’t be as obvious for McGahee. The Browns are beginning to show signs of committing to him as their lead RB (8 carries vs. Minn, 15 carries vs Cincy), but in return, McGahee must start performing better. On 23 carries he’s ran for just 55 yards (2.3 ypc), and against a Bills defense that has struggled against the run (122 yards per game), McGahee could breakout. However, he’s still splitting the backfield with Rainey and Ogbonnaya (combined 16 carries in last 2 games), which leaves Willis more of a boom/bust pick this week. Although if you own him, monitor his carries and production, he will be the Browns feature back for this season, and eventually Ogbonnaya and Rainey will be pushed aside, for this week though. I wouldn’t start him, the risk is just too great.
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