Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Options for Week 6

ONE TO START, ONE TO SIT

One to start, One to sit is a weekly column where each NFL game will be evaluated and the best/worst fantasy match-ups will be listed.

Sunday’s Match-ups

 BENGALS @ BILLS

Best Option
CIN- AJ Green
BUF- Fred Jackson/ CJ Spiller

Green seems to be living and dying week to week with Andy Dalton’s performance. The QB play may not be as good, but AJ’s still getting the opportunities (he’s averaging nearly 12 targets a week). Against the Bills secondary, who apparently cannot stop WR’s (8 td’s, over 1100 yards given up to WR’s this year), look for AJ to bounce back this week after several weeks of disappointing performances. With Thad Lewis starting at QB this week, look for the Bills to move the chains through their running game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a combined 35-40 touches between Spiller and Jackson, depending of course on the score of the game. With given 10 days to rest, there should be no doubt CJ Spiller suits up in this one, I’d imagine you’d see more of a 60/40 split in favor of Spiller. The Bengals defense does rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per game, but given the quantity these two should be seeing, both should be starters in anyone’s line up.

Worst Option
CIN- Andy Dalton
BUF- Stevie Johnson

5 Picks and 9 sacks in the last two games for Buffalo. Add on the three turnovers and the struggles Dalton has been facing recently (hasn’t thrown a TD pass in 2 weeks), and the tendency of the Bengals to lean on the running game when in tight situations (Dalton has thrown the ball under 30 times 2 out of the last 3 games) and ya got another mediocre performance from Dalton. Johnson is nothing but bad news this week. He’s a game time decision (Back) and will have a QB who hasn’t thrown a pass since December of last year. While Thad Lewis isn’t necessarily the worst QB to ever throw the ball, after being signed earlier this week and given the start, and going up against a Bengals defense that didn’t give up a TD pass to Tom Brady Last week. I’m finding it hard to find any positives in this matchup.

LIONS @ BROWNS

Best Option
DET- Lions Defense
CLE- Jordan Cameron

Detroit’s defense is really weird. They’re 3rd in the NFL in interceptions, yet they give up 268 yards through the air (21st). They’re 27th against the run, but have only given up 5 rushing td’s and 10 sacks all season. However, they’re going up against a Browns offense who, once again, is struggling to find an identity. After losing QB Brian Hoyer last week for the season, they once again turn to Brandon Weeden. Under Weeden, the Browns are averaging 268 yards per game. I’d look to see the Browns return to the run with Willis McGahee, as opposed to airing it out with Josh Gordon/Jordan Cameron, but either way, the Lions defense is a good spot start this week. This is going to be an interesting game for Cameron. With Weeden back as well as Josh Gordon to take some of the pressure off of him, Cameron should be able to bounce back from that 36 yard performance against Buffalo. Detroit’s defense has struggled vs the TE this year, giving up 90 yards to Martellus Bennet on 8 catches, as well as giving up 6 catches to Jermichael Finley last week.

Worst Option
DET- Matthew Stafford
CLE- Greg Little

If Calvin Johnson plays, Stafford has a chance to put up good fantasy numbers, if he doesn’t, whoa boy, this could get ugly. The Browns defense has allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to QB’s, and average an opposing 208 yards through the air a game. Also, they’re tied for 3rd with 18 sacks already. Granted they haven’t seen a QB as good as Stafford so far this season, but again, if Calvin doesn’t play, Stafford’s fantasy value drops significantly. I know, I know, none of you should even be considering to start Greg Little on your team, but after last week’s performance (3 catches 71 yards), someone’s gotta go here. Little did just come off his best game of the season, and is the security valve for Brandon Weeden, but his drops still remain a factor and shouldn’t be anything more than a hail mary desperation move for any fantasy owners this year.

PACKERS @ RAVENS

Best Option
GB- Jordy Nelson/ Randall Cobb/ James Jones
BAL- Joe Flacco

The Ravens are the 13th fantasy friendly team to WR’s in the NFL. The Packers are the NFC’s version of the Denver Broncos, 3 WR’s that can kill you and 1 TE who’s not as good as Julius Thomas, but if you forget about him, he will make you pay. While Cobb and James Jones seem to switch off every week on who does better, Jordy remains consistent week after week (he’s gotten at least 66 yards a game). With the Ravens tough against the run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rodgers and Co. take charge offensively in this one. The Ravens looked like they were returning to the running game last week (Ray Rice had 27 carries), but to keep up with the Packers, Flacco’s going to have to throw it. Green Bay is averaging 289 yards through the air a game, and have already surrendered 9 passing TD’s.

Worst Option
GB- Eddie Lacy
BAL- Baltimore Def

Since their opening day loss to Denver, the Ravens defense has produced an average of 12 points a week. However, Green Bay’s offense, while not on par with Denver, is in that upper level that make fantasy owners cringe when their defenses play them. The Aaron Rodgers and Co passing game should be more than enough of a reason for you to find another defense to play this week. In his return, Eddie Lacy came back with a bang as he rushed for 99 yards against Detroit. The Ravens running defense since week 1 have held opposing leading rushers to an average of 53 yards a game (Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller were the only 2 RB’s to topple that marker in 4 weeks). With the odds of this game turning into a shootout, GB may lean towards the pass more often in this one, leaving Lacy and his owners hoping for some goal line reps.

PANTHERS @ VIKINGS

Best Option
CAR- Steve Smith
MIN- Jerome Simpson

Minnesota may be tied for 4th in the NFL with 7 interceptions, but they’re giving up 326 yards through the air a game and have allowed a TD to opposing WR’s the last three games. While Smith has been underperforming lately (hasn’t cracked over 60 yards this season), this may be the cure for what ails him. I’m not sure if Matt Cassel and Jerome Simpson have a connection, or if Pittsburgh’s defense was just homing in on Greg Jennings and Kyle Rudolph, but 7 catches for 124 yards is nothing to scoff at. In fact, I say let it ride. The Panthers secondary is nothing to scoff at, but their run defense is worse. Also, recently anybody going up against the Vikings seems to be in a shootout (every Vikings game this year has toppled over 60 combined points) so throws may come a plenty.

Worst Option
CAR- Carolina Defense
MIN- Adrian Peterson

See the last statement above for my reasoning on why the Panthers defense is here. 3 out of the first 4 games, Carolina’s defense has held opposing rushers to under 60 yards. As for AP, I know he said he’s going to play (thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family), and on the field could do him some good, keep his mind off of the situation, and he may go off in this game, always a possibility, but with what’s happened to him recently and the defense he’s going up against, I just don’t think he’s going to produce much in this one.

RAIDERS @ CHIEFS

Best Option
OAK- Marcel Reece
KC- Alex Smith

With Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings both suffering from hamstring injuries (although Jennings is a stronger chance to play this week), the Raiders will look to Marcel Reece this week as their goal line/check down option. A sure handed back that can also do a lot of damage in the passing game, Reece has the best potential to be the focus of this offense against a tough Chiefs defense on Sunday. Oakland’s secondary struggles to make plays, and while Smith hasn’t looked too good in recent weeks (3 interceptions), he’s still one of the best game managers in the NFL. The Raiders also boast a solid run defense, which could mean more passes for Smith.

Worst Option
OAK- Terelle Pryor
KC- Donnie Avery

While the Chiefs struggle against the run, the amount of pressure they put on opposing QB’s is incredible. A league leading 21 sacks as well as being tied for 4th with 7 interceptions should be enough to give Pryor problems throughout the game. Going purely on speculation and history here, while Avery is KC’s most productive receiver, Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe have destroyed the Raiders over the past several seasons. According to ESPN, Charles has rushed for over 100 yards the last 3 times he’s faced Oakland. Meanwhile Bowe has caught for nearly 500 yards the last 7 times he’s gone up against Oakland. Thinking Bowe finally breaks out in this one, and Avery is left with a moderate game.

STEELERS @ JETS

Best Option
PIT- Ben Roethelisberger
NYJ- Bilal Powell

Even though the Jets have 16 sacks going into this game. They’ve only 1 interception and have given up 9 passing TD’s. With the Steelers offensive line still in flux, don’t be surprised to see a lot (and I mean a lot) of short passes/slants in this one for the Steelers. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Jets tough front 7, I’d imagine Ben has something ready for them. While the returns of Christopher Ivory and Mike Goodson ate into his time, Powell still managed to outperform the duo as well as making himself useful in the passing game. The Steelers are the worst defense in the NFL against the run (giving up 6 rushing TD’s already as well as averaging 123 yards on the ground). With Powell getting the majority of the workload, he earns RB2 considerations this week. And if your desperate, Christopher Ivory and Mike Goodson aren’t bad plays as well.

Worst Option
PIT- Le’Veon Bell
NYJ- Jeff Cumberland

The Jets boast the 2nd rushing defense in the NFL (76 rushing yards given up a game). While Le’Veon Bell did have a great debut with 2 TD’s and over 80 combined yards, vs a Jets defense that have held the likes of Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, Stevan Ridley, and Chris Johnson to 7 fantasy points or fewer (only Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers have scored TD’s against this unit). I don’t like the odds of Bell scoring double digit fantasy points this week. With Kellen Winslow out for the next few games (tested positive for PED/being a moron…. Again) the Jets TE position now belongs to Jeff Cumberland. After coming off his best game of his career (3 catches 79 yards and a TD), Cumberland now faces a Steelers defense who unfortunately have done one thing right this season… They allow the 4th fewest fantasy points to a TE. So while Cumberland may not be the ideal option this week, look to him in the upcoming future as a possible bye week filler.

JAGUARS @ BRONCOS

Best Option
JAX- Justin Blackmon
DEN- Knowshon Moreno / Ronnie Hillman

With Chad Henne starting, Blackmon’s stock rises exponentially. I know he had a big day last week with Gabbert throwing the ball, but with Henne at QB, Blackmon turns into a solid WR2. Also helps that with Denver’s offense and poor secondary, the Jags best chance of scoring is through the air. Expect a lot of passes to come Justin’s way with some great results as well. With Knowshon, use with digression. The Broncos running back by committee approach is a tricky one, and Knowshon may be the leader of the pack, but if the game gets out of hand, you may only get a half/3 quarters out of him at most. The closer the game, the more chances Moreno has. With that said, the Jags running defense is terrible. Their secondary is okay (I wouldn’t be surprised if Manning throws a pick in this one, and only ends up with 2 TDs). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a heavy dose of Moreno and Hillman in the first half, resulting in good days for the two of them. Ball on the other hand, I’d avoid, he’s the opposite of Knowshon (only comes in when the game is out of reach and will only get you a handful of carries).

Worst Option
JAX- Maurice Jones Drew
DEN- Denver Def

Denver’s defense is enough of a black hole to contain MJD, but playing in Denver has eaten running backs alive this season. So far, Mile High Stadium has eaten Leading rusher LeSean McCoy as well as fantasy monster Ray Rice alive this season. What are the chances MJD, a running back who isn’t getting goal line carries (not losing them to another back, but for some inexplicable reason the Jags are throwing way more than they should in the red zone), who is barely involved in the passing game, and who hasn’t cracked 100 yards in a single game does well here? Not very good, but then again if you’re starting any Jacksonville player this week, you’re hoping for some garbage time points, which has been the source of the majority of MJD’s points this season (he has one TD entering this week).  Don’t get me wrong, every defense that’s gone up against Jacksonville has put up a load of fantasy points, but we could be looking at another Seattle Seahawks situation, where the game is so one sided, the game may be beyond reach midway through the 3rd quarter (or even at halftime). At that point you may be seeing nothing but Denver backups on defense. Which could lead to possibly several Jags TD’s. With Henne starting at QB this week, that also puts up a tiny red flag in this matchup. Henne isn’t the best QB, but he’s more experienced and a better thrower than Blaine Gabbert. Obviously, I’m going by the assumption that Denver completely steamrolls over the Jags (which has been the formula for any team Jacksonville has played this year, guilty until proven innocent), but just hope Denver’s defense gets a score or two so you won’t be effected too much when the Jags get their garbage time points.

SAINTS @ PATRIOTS

Best Option
NO- Jimmy Graham
NE- Stevan Ridley

This is just getting ridiculous for Graham. 5 straight 100 yard games? Now he goes against a Pats defense who’s struggled against opposing TE’s all season. Tony Gonzalez torched the pats, Cincy’s Gresham and Eifert combined for 77 yards, and even Buffalo’s Scott Chandler managed to get 4 catches against them. While shutdown corner Aqib Talib may come Graham’s way every now and then, the Saints also have WR threat Marques Colston to throw to if that were to become a reoccurring trend. Stevan Ridley returns this week after missing a game with a knee injury. Even though he is questionable this week, Rotowire.com reports he’s expected to suit up and be the lead back. While Ridley has underperformed significantly, the Saints are giving up 5.3 yards a carry and are on the lower half in the NFL when defending the run. The Pats have always managed to exploit opposing teams weakness. Expect their gameplan to be a steady mix of Ridley (and potentially Brandon Bolden) running the ball and trying to avoid a shootout against one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Worst Option
NO- Drew Brees
NE- Tom Brady

Call me crazy, but I don’t believe this game is going to be the shootout everyone’s been looking for. The Saints are a completely different team when playing outdoors. When indoors, Brees has averaged 29 fantasy points, while outdoors, 15.5. The Pats secondary is also very strong, allowing just 229 yards through the air a game, with 6 interceptions and only 4 TD’s allowed. I know it’s Brees, but as I’ve said before, just lower your expectations in this one. The same with Brady, sure he’s got Amendola back, but the Saints defense has improved greatly as well. Also, expect defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to bring a lot of pressure on Brady, hoping he will make poor decisions.

EAGLES @ BUCCANEERS

Best Option
PHI- Brent Celek
TB- Doug Martin

TB’s defense seems to struggle against pass catching TE’s, and to be fair, it would be pointless for me to put LeSean McCoy here. Celek has been underused this season and only seems to appear in fantasy statistics when he’s catching a TD pass. However, with Nick Foles back in the equation, a lot changes. ESPN reported that Foles competed 85% of his passes when targeting Celek, and with the Bucs putting Revis on Jackson, someone’s gotta step up in the Philly passing game. My money’s on Celek to once again crack those double digit fantasy points and bee a big sleeper in this matchup. There’s no question about this one, Doug Martin is going to get a lot of carries. I mean a lot. He’s already averaging 25 a game and in this one, I wouldn’t be shocked if he put up 30-40 touches, depending on his productivity. The Eagles allow 15 points to opposing RB’s. Expect Martin to continue that trend.

Worst Option
PHI- DeSean Jackson
TB- Mike Glennon

I don’t care if Jackson said he’s too fast for Revis, the way Darelle Revis is playing this season (4 passes defended, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble), I wouldn’t be shocked at all if D.Jax is shutout this entire game. With only Larry Fitzgerald managing a TD against him, Revis has shut down the likes of Marques Colston / Jimmy Graham (Revis was on Colston in the first half- 2 catches, 28 yards, 2nd half was on Jimmy Graham- 2 catches, 23 yards), and Julian Edelman (7 catches, 44 yards). So to say Revis still cannot cover people is nonsense. Look for QB Nick Foles to throw elsewhere in this one. Against the Cardinals, Mike Glennon looked like anything but a NFL QB. This years NFC version of Blaine Gabbert has the opportunity to shake that title as he’s going up against the tied for 29th ranked passing defense. Philly is on the lower end of sacks and middle of the pack on interceptions, so Glennon isn’t completely out of the woods in this one. However, knowing Chip Kelly, he will probably pressure the young rookie and force Glennon to beat him with his arm.

TITANS @ SEAHAWKS

Best Option
TEN- Chris Johnson
SEA- Seattle’s defense

While Ryan Fitzpatrick did manage to score 20 points in his fantasy debut. Against the Seahawks top passing defense, in Seattle.. I cannot endorse it. I can endorse Chris Johnson however, while his rushing has been sub par at best (averaging 3.1 ypc), it’s his involvement in the passing game lately that has been giving him a spark (his first td of the season came last week on a 49 yard pass). If this continues, it could revive CJ out of fantasy obscurity, and into relevance once again. Even though they didn’t perform well against the Jags in week 3 (only 12 defensive points), I’m blaming that more on the fact that Seattle played their backups the majority of the 2nd half. Their matchup vs the 49ers however, is the potential you should be looking at when playing Seattle’s defense at home. Tennessee is not Jacksonville, and they should keep the game close enough to keep the starters of Seattle on the field for the whole game.

Worst Option
TEN- Titans Def
SEA- Russell Wilson

Seattle is outscoring teams 74-20 (17 points to Jacksonville in garbage time) after two games at home this year. The Titans do have a strong fantasy defense (3rd highest scoring defense in fantasy), but playing in Seattle is like playing in a new world, you’d be best to avoid this matchup and find a defense on the waiver wire this week. Tennessee allows the third fewest QB points in fantasy, and Wilson has produced mixed results this year (4 games scored under 15 points). While his rushing capabilities keep him as a fantasy starter (over 100 yards rushing vs Indy last week), his turnovers keep him from reaching that safe point status where any owner feels comfortable starting him every week. Wilson has turned the ball over at least once in every game this season, I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

CARDINALS @ 49ERS

Best Option
ZONA- Arizona’s Defense
SF- Frank Gore

While Kaepernick hasn not thrown an interception since week 3, and San Fran does tend to take care of the ball. Zona’s defense is still the best option for this team. Larry Fitz is questionable, the Cardinals running game has yet to get going, they’re facing a tough 49ers defense, what more do you want? A positive note? Okay, LB Daryl Washington has returned with a vengeance from his 4 game suspension and already has an interception, and 2 sacks after one game. His instant impact gives a shot in the arm the Cardinals defense needs in this game. Total gut call here. Even though the Cards are allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to RB’s. Gore has been playing great these last three weeks, averaging 15 fantasy points. It also seems that the 49ers are leaning more towards their running game, with Kaepernick continuing to struggle/not needing to pass as much to win games. Look for another heavy dose of Gore this Sunday.

Worst Option
ZONA- Rashard Mendenhall
SF- Anquan Boldin

While he is still getting the majority of the carries and is the goal line back, Rashard still hasn’t managed to topple the 100 yards of offense marker. With Andre Ellington stealing a few of his carries and outperforming him every week, it may only be a matter of time before he overtakes Mendenhall as the starter. Insert the weekly WR going up against Patrick Peterson here. Sorry for the repetitiveness, but when you have 3 solo interceptions and 6 passes defended, it’s kind of a big deal.

REDSKINS @ COWBOYS

Best Option
WASH- Pierre Garcon
DAL- Dez Bryant

Despite Washington’s record, Garcon is having a strong year so far, getting 29 catches in the span of 4 games. He’s quickly emerging as QB RG3‘s favorite target and is cementing a strong future as a top fantasy WR. In his previous matchups against Dallas, Garcon has averaged decent numbers (last yr, 132 yards, 1 td in 2 games). There is a threat that Dallas may double team him all game and have another one of Washington’s WR/TE beat them (The next closest WR on Washington is Santana Moss with 15 catches), but that shouldn‘t steer you away from Garcon. He’s going to get the looks in this one, the production should be there. Dez is going to be a factor, if not THE factor for the Cowboys in this game. How does he fair up against the Redskins defense you ask? Since 2011, Dez has averaged 87 yards and has scored 3 TD’s vs Washington. With Miles Austin returning this week, Jason Witten being… Well Jason Witten, as well as Terrance Williams emerging, Dez is unlikely to see double coverage and will probably be Dallas leader in receiving yards this week.

Worst Option
WASH- Alfred Morris
DAL- Dallas Def

After a horrible start, Morris looks to be healthy and back this week. Unfortunately, he meets a Cowboy defense that gives up 83 yards on the ground a game. While Denver managed a smooth running game last week, Denver also has 2-3 running backs to use and keep fresh on the sidelines. Expect Morris to get his usual amount of touches (15-20), but keep your expectations moderate this week. Another week, another high scoring game for the Cowboys defense to suffer through. Granted RG3 isn’t Peyton Manning and won’t carve up the Cowboys secondary like he did last week. But RG3 also had 2 weeks to prep for this game, and that could prove to be just as deadly.  While RG3 has been sacked already 7 times, and Dallas does boast a top 5 rushing defense, expect Washington to attack through the air in this one. Also, if history continues, Washington has averaged nearly 22 points a game, while RG3’s interception problems continue to be an issue, Dallas does rank 31st against the pass this year.

RAMS @ TEXANS

Best Option
STL- Zac Stacey
HOU- Matt Schaub

Stacey was a breath of fresh air for the Rams last week, actually being able to represent something of a ground game. Granted that was against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Houston isn’t far from them when it comes to running defense. While he is questionable with chest pains, Stacey looks good to compete against the Texans. CALLIN IT NOW! This is the week Matt Schaub gets off the snide. If Blaine Gabbert can throw for a TD pass against the Rams, then by God, Matt Schaub can go a game without throwing an interception. Schaub ranks 5th in the NFL with 212 passing attempts, so you know the chances will be there for him to put up big numbers this week.

Worst Option
STL- Jared Cook
HOU- Ben Tate

2 straight weeks, fellow TE Lance Kendricks has outperformed Cook in fantasy football. Whether it be his 1 catch for 1 yard vs the 49ers, or his 37 yard and 1 TD outing against the Jags, point is, Kendricks is outperforming Cook. Lets further that fact shall we? Since his week 1 breakout party, Cook has combined for 125 yards and zero TD’s. Going up against a Texans defense that has held all but Vernon Davis to under 50 yards receiving and has only given up 2 passing TD’s to Tight Ends this season. Look away from this matchup. Tate has seemed to fall off the map in recent weeks, due to his fumbling. Having only gotten 7 carries a game for the past two weeks isn’t enough for starting consideration, even if it is against the awful Rams.

COLTS @ CHARGERS

Best Option
INDY- Andrew Luck
SD- Danny Woodhead

Going up against the 2nd most passer friendly defense on Monday night has to be nice for Andrew Luck. Even if he has had a turnover in 3 of his last 4 games, the Chargers defense has only one interception this season. With a running game still in flux, and the Chargers offense being able to put up points, look for Luck to have a huge night this Monday.With Ryan Mathews continuing to underperform, The Chargers have looked to Danny Woodhead as their AFC version of Darren Sproles. The former Patriot has accumulated 3 receiving TD’s and a combined 161 total yards his last two games. With the Colts struggling against the run and Ryan Mathews continuing to be… Well Ryan Mathews, look for another big performance from Woodhead on Monday Night.

Worst Option
INDY- Trent Richardson
SD- Eddie Royal

Call it being overrated, call it learning a new offense, whatever you like, the TD’s have been there for T-Rich, but the yardage has not. Two straight weeks he’s almost been outperformed by teammate Donald Brown, who is only getting 23% of the workload Richardson is. Against a friendly Chargers defense that’s allowing 6.5 yards a play, T-Rich needs to step up his game this Monday. Since the emergence of Keenan Allen, Vincent Brown becoming more involved in the offense and the continuing adventures of the Antonio Gates comeback tour. Eddie Royal has fallen off the map. Since week two, Royal has put up a total of 7…. YES SEVEN fantasy points. Add the fact that the Colts are allowing the 6th fewest fantasy points against WR’s doesn’t help much.