Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Options for Week 7

ONE TO START, ONE TO SIT
One to start, One to sit is a weekly column where each NFL game will be evaluated and the best/worst fantasy match-ups will be listed.

Week 7 Matchups

Buccaneers @ Falcons

Best Option
TB- Vincent Jackson
ATL- Harry Douglas

Even with a rookie QB, V-Jax still gets his production. After a 9 catch 114 yard and 2 TD performance last week against the Eagles, Jackson remains Mike Glennon’s go to WR. Even with Mike Williams returning this week, Jackson’s targets may go down, but the production should be there.  My guess is that TB is going to put Revis on Tony Gonzalez in this one. He’s been Ryan’s most productive/targeted receiver now that Julio Jones is out.  With Roddy White questionable in this game as well, it leaves none other than Harry Douglas to move the chains at the WR position. Douglas has had a quiet year so far, but is 2nd on the team in red zone targets. Against a TB defense that’s already surrendered 8 TD’s through the air, Douglas could be in line for a breakout game.

Worst Option
TB- Doug Martin
ATL- Jason Snelling

Martin received his lightest workload last week with only 20 touches. While that may be awesome for any RB, the production hasn’t been there. Martin has yet to surpass 14 fantasy points and with defenses homing in on pressuring QB Mike Glennon and stopping the run first, things just don’t look like they’ll let up for Martin, at least not this week.  With the WR’s in flux and the running game firmly in the hands of Jacquizz Rodgers, the clock may have struck 12 for fellow RB Jason Snelling. While sidelined with a concussion in week 5, Rodgers managed 2 TD’s against the Jets stout running defense. Rodgers’ use in the short passing game doesn’t help either, with him getting 10 catches over the past 2 games for 71 yards compared to Snelling’s 6 catches for 18 yards. While Snelling may get a few carries here and there, his workload will be considerably lighter than Rodgers and may be reverted to just a 3rd down back.

Bills @ Dolphins

Best Option
BUF- Thad Lewis
MIA- Mike Wallace / Brian Hartline

After an impressive debut last week, the new Bills offense seems to  start and stop with Thad Lewis. He throws, he runs, he does almost everything. The Dolphins running defense hasn’t been too impressive this season, but with Spiller and Jackson continuing to share carries and infect each other’s fantasy value. Lewis right now is the best option in the Bills offense.  The Bills defense have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing WR‘s. Miami has thrown the ball at least 34 times a game. Their running game remains lackluster at best. Although Hartline and Wallace have been boom/bust picks every week, this matchup against the Bills seems too good to pass up.

Worst Option
BUF-Scott Chandler
MIA- Charles Clay

While Miami has struggled against TE’s all year, they’ve usually given up big games to more productive players (Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, etc). Chandler seems to live and die week to week with his TD’s. The only time he’s broken double digits in fantasy points is when he catches a TD pass, any other time, he hasn’t scored more than 4 points. Clay has been a nice surprise this season. Three out of the last 4 games he’s amassed 10 or more fantasy points, the last two games, he’s even scored a TD. Unfortunately, this is where all the good news ends. Buffalo has been extremely tough on TE’s lately, holding them to an average of 32 yards since week 3.

Bears @ Redskins

Best Option
CHI- Matt Forte
WASH- RG3/Alfred Morris

Going up against a Washington defense that ranks near the bottom in yards given up (123 a game) and have surrendered 6 TD’s on the ground, Forte owners can expect another heavy workday for the Chicago RB. More importantly, it appears that fellow RB/TD vulture Michael Bush has been pushed down for a more 4th quarter running out the clock role (8 carries in the last 3 games). Chicago’s had problems stopping the run this year (have let up a 100 yard rusher in 2 of their last 3 games) . Throw in the season ending injury to DJ Williams (27 total tackles, 2 sacks) while going up against a Washington team that averages close to 25 rushing attempts a game, things don’t bode well. While Morris hasn’t gotten the workload we’ve all expected from a Shannahan team, chances are he’ll get another steady workload (15-18 carries) in this one.

Worst Option
CHI- Bears Defense
WASH- Jordan Reed

While the Bears defense ranks high in fumbles and interceptions, don’t forget, this is a defense that has given up an average of 26.8 points a game. The Redskins are more than capable of moving the ball on this squad and with the recent injuries to DJ Williams, Henry Melton and Nate Collins, you’d have to rely on a special teams TD or a def TD to score points in this one. Reed looks to have surpassed fellow TE Fred Davis on the Redskins pass catching TE pecking order. Having scored at least 5 points in his last 3 games played, in time Reed could turn out to be RG3’s secondary option (he and fellow WR Leonard Hankerson have gotten the same amount of looks the past 2 games). Unfortunately, he’s going up against a Bears defense that’s given up only 1 TD to a TE this year, and have held all opposing TE’s not named Jimmy Graham to 5 fantasy points or fewer.

Browns @ Packers

Best Option
CLE- Brandon Weeden
GB- Eddy Lacy

I’m going the sneaky pick this week. While Weeden has been under constant scrutiny in Cleveland (seems like if the Browns win it’s because of someone else, and if they lose, it’s all Weeden’s fault), Brandon has been a decent fantasy QB the past 2 weeks. Having scored in double digits both times, he now goes up against a Packer defense that’s given up 11 passing TD’s with only 2 interceptions. If Weeden’s going to put up strong fantasy stats, it’s going to be in this game. Don’t get me wrong, the Browns running defense remains one of the better squads in the NFL (gives up 98 rushing yards a game), but with the injuries to the WR’s, and the recent work Lacy’s been getting (46 carries 219 yards in last 2 games), you gotta figure GB is going to pound the ball with their rookie halfback in this one. While I don’t think he crosses the 100 yard rushing marker, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lacy punched in a TD or two and was the primary goal line option for the Packers.

Worst Option
CLE- Willis McGahee
GB- Jordy Nelson

The Browns have been really sketchy with their running game all season. One week McGahee gets 26 carries and only averages 2.8 yards per carry. The next week, 10 carries and averages 3.7 yards, (WTF?!). The Packers running defense ranks 3rd behind only Denver and the Jets in terms of yards let up to opposing RB’s (78.2 ypg). With these two stats in front of you, putting McGahee on your bench this week seems like the right option. While the injuries to Randall Cobb and James Jones may give some Nelson owners hope that Rodgers may home in on Jordy and Jordy alone, odds are that’s not going to happen, at least not in this game. With shutdown cornerback Joe Haden presumably on Jordy all game (Haden has held AJ Green and Calvin Johnson to 5 fantasy points or fewer), chances are Rodgers is going to have to look somewhere else in this one.

Cowboys @ Eagles

Best Option
DAL- Any Dallas WR (Austin, Dez, Williams) or Jason Witten
PHI- DeSean Jackson

The Eagles have given up the most fantasy points to opposing WR’s this season. Dallas’ running game is hurting with DeMarco Murray missing this game (Joe Randle is getting the start). While Austin and Williams will dig into each other for catches and targets, they both merit starting considerations due to the matchup. Dez and Witten on the other hand, should be among the leading scorers this week in their respected positions. Jackson simply can’t be stopped. Doesn’t matter who’s throwing him the ball this season, Jackson has produced at least 6 points in all of his matchups except for one. This week he faces a Dallas defense that averages 22.7 fantasy points to opposing WR’s a game.

Worst Option
DAL- Joe Randle
PHI- Jason Avant

Truth be told, I just think Dallas is going to air it out this week, leaving Randle to pick up the scraps. He did not look impressive against an awful Redskins defense (11 carries for 17 yards and a late TD) and could end up with 10-15 touches at the most. While Riley Cooper has reaped the benefits of Nick Foles at QB, Avant has been reverted to a 3rd down/possession type of receiver. Getting 13 targets in the last two games, Avant has only produced 54 yards on 7 catches. He doesn’t seem to be a red zone option, so unless you’re desperate in your PPR league, I’d avoid Avant of pulling any kind of miracle game in this one.

Bengals @ Lions

Best Option
CIN- Giovanni Bernard
DET- Matthew Stafford

Lately the Bengals offense has been focused on the Law Firm/Bernard combination (73 combined touches in the last 2 games). While Green-Ellis remains strictly a rushing force, Bernard has managed to become more of a threat due to his receiving capabilities (has 19 catches so far this season). Detroit’s defense has been generous to opposing running backs, and while Green Ellis does remain the goal line option, Bernard is the better fantasy option for his big play abilities. It appeared that Stafford was in trouble with Calvin Johnson’s knee injury. However, after last week’s 4 TD performance against Cleveland, Stafford appears to have moved on from a 1 WR throwing QB, to a possible total package. With Reggie Bush and Joique Bell able to catch out of the backfield, Kris Durham emerging as the #2 WR Detroit needs and team leading TD catching machine / worst dancer in the history of the NFL Joe Fauria possibly becoming more of a threat (has 7 catches on the year, 5 for TD’s). Nothing seems to be able to stop Stafford.

Worst Option
CIN- Cincy’s defense
DET- Joe Fauria

Detroit’s offense is allowing opposing defenses to the 6th fewest fantasy points. Also, while on the road this year, the Bengals defense has scored 2, 6, and 7 points. While they do possess a strong front seven, you’re better off finding a waiver wire defense to fill in this week. While Fauria is Detroit’s leader in TD’s (5), he’s not worth fantasy consideration yet. He only has 7 catches on the year on 9 targets. The 21 point game he had last week can be considered a fluke, however, if Fauria can somehow manage to put himself ahead of Brandon Pettigrew and get himself some games with more targets and yards, then fantasy owners may have something to look into as their playoffs roll along, but for now, Fauria should be on team’s benches as a storage option/desperation attempt only.

49ers @ Titans

Best Option
SF- Frank Gore
TEN- Chris Johnson

The only negative thing I can say about the Titans defense is their inability to stop opposing running backs. They have given up 100 total yards to 4 running backs this season. Their last 2 games, have given up 3 rushing TD’s and over 140 yards to opposing backs. Gore is a beast and is coming off 4 straight games of 80 or more rushing yards. Think the proof is in the pudding here. The 49ers have struggled against the run this year, and have given up the second most rushing TD’s in the NFL (7). With QB Jake Locker returning this week (barring a setback), Johnson’s touches may improve (he averaged 19.5 touches a game with Locker starting at QB, compared to 15.5 with Fitzpatrick under center). Even with his horrible history, Johnson is still worth a RB #2 spot this week.

Worst Option
SF- Colin Kaepernick
TEN- Chris Johnson

Last week was the first time Kaepernick threw for over 200 yards since week 1. While he hasn’t been that good of a road QB (averaging 9 fantasy points per outing this yr), the Titans defense allow the 4th fewest fantasy points at QB. I know, I know, but Johnson has underwhelmed his fantasy owners in the majority of his games so far, how can I not put him here? It’s not like you’re going to start Kenny Britt at this point in the year, and surprisingly enough, Nate Washington and Kendal Wright have performed rather well with Locker under center. So why is CJ here as well? Simple, because he hasn’t scored more than 13 fantasy points a game, regardless of his underperformance, he remains the top offensive option in Tennessee, and even against a 49ers defense that struggles against the run, he’s still guilty until proven innocent. I hope I’m wrong here on CJ, but if history proves itself right, then expect another underwhelming, single digit fantasy performance.

Texans @ Chiefs

Best Option
HOU- Arian Foster / Ben Tate
KC- Chiefs Defense

Read everything I have about Case Keenum to advertise why the Chiefs defense is the way to go in this one. Rookie QB, KC’s running defense, while only giving up 2 rushing TD’s all season, still rank 22nd in rushing defense. There’s no reason to think Houston is going to air it out at all this game, even if they fall behind early. Foster should amass over 20 touches easily (maybe even 30), and Tate’s gonna see enough action for him to be considered for a flex option.

Worst Option
HOU- Case Keenum
KC- Alex Smith

Oh boy… This shouldn’t be pretty. A rookie QB going on the road against the NFL’s leading defense in sacks and tied for 2nd in interceptions… Even if Keenum does perform well, you have to be crazy or have lost a bet to start him in this one. I don’t know how they do it, but the Texans defense only gives up 131 yards through the air on an average. No QB has thrown for over 200 yards agains them. With only Rivers, Locker, and Bradford having scored double digit fantasy points against them. The Texans don’t get int’s, and their sack total is on the bottom half of the NFL, and yet they hold QB’s in check. It’s not because it’s a bad matchup for Smith, but because of these odd facts that I gotta put him here.

Rams @ Panthers

Best Option
STL- Sam Bradford
CAR- DeAngelo Williams

If St.L has any chance of putting up points against the Panther’s defense, it’s on the shoulders of Sam Bradford. The Panthers are average at best when it comes to getting pressure on the QB, and with Bradford’s band of WR’s and his ability to spread the ball out between them all, gives him the best chance of performing well in this game. Obviously Cam is the choice of the Panthers this week, but that’s too obvious. So I’m going with D.Williams this week. The Rams allow the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs, and even though Williams has yet to score a TD, I think that trend changes this Sunday. Expect a big outing from Williams.

Worst Option
STL- Zac Stacy
CAR- Greg Olsen

Carolina holds the 4th best running defense in the NFL at 88.8 rushing yards a game. Zac Stacy has revived the Rams running game lately with his 4.9 yards a carry. Something’s gotta give right? In this case I’m going with Stacy. The Rams line isn’t that strong and the 4.9 yards a carry came against the likes of Houston and Jacksonville (two of the worst runnning defenses in the NFL). Lower expectations this week. The Rams have given up just one TD to opposing TE’s all season. Furthermore, they’ve held opposing TE’s to just 34 yards a game. Olsen is coming off a horrible 2 catches for 19 yards outing, and in this game, where the running game looks to be the primary choice for the Panthers, Olsen may be left with just a handful of chances to produce in this one.

Patriots @ Jets

Best Option
NE- Rob Gronkowski
NYJ- Geno Smith

He’s Back! Finally after 6 weeks of waiting, Gronkowski owners will get to play the gem they’ve been storing. The Jets have allowed an average of 11 points to opposing TE’s in the past 4 games (PIT, ATL, TEN, BUF). With the exception of Tony Gonzalez, none of those TE’s are on the same scale as Gronk. Expect a nice return from Brady’s favorite target in this game. With Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Aqib Talib all out this game, the Jets could possibly have a very strong offensive outing. Leading the way should be Geno Smith who’s been extremely on/off this whole season. However, a trend can be noticed, he has one good week, followed by a bad one. Last week he scored only 4 fantasy points, guess what that means? While the Pats did manhandle him the last time they played (3 ints, 214 yards passing), the injuries the Pats are suffering on defense could be enough to turn the tide in this one. Don’t be shocked if Geno ends up with 15 plus fantasy points after this one’s over.

Worst Option
NE- Stevan Ridley
NYJ- Bilal Powell

Welcome back Stevan Ridley! It looks like you’ve gotten back your starting job, and hell, you’ve even thrown in 2 TD’s in last week’s performance, congrats to you. Now lets see if you can rebound against your 2.5 yards a carry performance against the Jets. Ridley does make up for a nice RB #2 option this week, but the Jets front 7 is just too good, numbers don’t lie, and averaging 75.7 yards a game to opposing RB’s is just too much to overcome. Powell has the ability to be a great leading rusher for the Jets, but the opportunity is being watered down way too much. Simply put, there’s too many mouthes to feed in the Jets backfield. Powell will lead the pack, but Christopher Ivory will steal a few carries, same with Mike Goodson, and even Geno Smith will take away some now and then. Starting Powell in this mess of a backfield will take more guts than brains, frankly until the Jets commit to a single back, I’d say all of them are unplayable.

Chargers @ Jaguars

Best Option
SD- Danny Woodhead / Ryan Mathews
JAX- Justin Blackmon / Cecil Shorts

Jacksonville’s running defense is by far the worst in the NFL. Giving up 152 yards on the ground a game, and 7 TD so far. Enter the Chargers running game. Both Woodhead and Mathews are potential #2 RB’s this week, Mathews for the bulk of carries he gets, and Woodhead for the touches and his 3rd down abilities(has averaged 16 touches for the past 2 weeks). Justin Blackmon destroyed the Broncos secondary and any opposing fantasy owners last week with his 190 yard, 14 catch performance, while he and Cecil Shorts are both listed as questionable this week (both are expected to play), with Chad Henne under center and going against a Charger secondary on a short week, and flying across the country, Blackmon deserves a WR #2 spot, while Shorts is a sneaky WR #3 option.

Worst Option
SD- Chargers Defense
JAX- Maurice Jones-Drew

It’s really hard to find a worst option when playing the Jags, it really is. Their passing defense is alright at best, and their running defense is terrible. So who do you put here? I’m taking my Cop Out of this week and saying the Chargers Defense. They did look great on Monday night, holding Andrew Luck, but recently , the opposing teams that have gone up against the Jags offense have seen a decline in fantasy production (only an average of 9 points scored vs the Jags in the past 2 weeks) The Chargers allow the 3rd fewest points to opposing RB’s. While MJD’s value has increased over the last few weeks due to the Jags offense performing better, he’s still a borderline RB #2 this week if you’re playing the matchup.

Ravens @ Steelers

Best Option
BAL- Ray Rice
PIT- Antonio Brown

With 41 carries over the past 2 weeks, the Ravens appear to be moving back to their initial ground and pound game of Rice and Pierce. With the Steelers giving up 6 TD’s on the ground (5 scores in the past 3 weeks), I wouldn’t be surprised if Rice surpassed 25 touches in this game. 48 fantasy points in 3 weeks. More importantly, 30 catches in 3 weeks. That’s not enough? Damn you’re greedy, fine, 53 targets so far this season. Antonio Brown has been the Steelers offense. While the running game has struggled, Brown has not, scoring at least 5 catches in every game this season. Against a Ravens defense that has a problem defending WR’s (7th most fantasy points to WRs). Brown remains a must start in any league.

Worst Option
BAL- Joe Flacco
PIT- Le’Veon Bell

The Ravens and Steelers defenses are nearly exact opposites of each other. The Ravens running defense is strong but their secondary is lacking, while the Steeler’s passing defense is tough (not valuable in fantasy) but their have problems stopping the run. Which leads me to the obvious choices in this one, Flacco and Bell. Bell has been a weird fantasy comity so far, only averaging 2.8 yards a carry, but has averaged 12 fantasy points a week since he’s returned to action. The Ravens running defense has allowed only 1 rushing TD all season and is the toughest matchup fantasy wise for any RB. Meanwhile, Flacco has recently struggled against the Steelers, scoring only 1 TD last year and averaging 176 passing yards against them. Compared to his 2011 stats where he threw for 4 TD’s and 524 yards against them in two meetings. My guess is that the Flacco of 2012 shows up in this one considering the Steelers have allowed under 200 yards through the air on an average this year, and are allowing the 2nd fewest passing yards in the league.

Broncos @ Colts

Best Option
DEN- Knowshon Moreno
INDY- TY Hilton

Don’t get me wrong, Peyton Manning is the end all be all best option in Denver, but for this column’s sake I can’t put him there, way too obvious. Instead, I’m going with Knowshon Moreno to continue his stride of high scoring fantasy games (he’s averaged 20 fantasy points over the past 3 weeks). The Colts running defense gives up 132 yards a game, and luckily their offense is good enough to keep Denver from putting in their backups, which means more opportunities for Moreno and less for Hillman and Ball. To compete with Denver, apparently your passing game has to be on. Luck is proving to be one of the better decision making QB’s in the NFL, but I think Reggie Wayne is going to be taken away from him and fellow WR (aka boom/bust option of the year) TY Hilton is going to be the guy who hurts the Broncos defense the most. Hilton has been nearly unstoppable at home, having raked in over 120 yards receiving his last two games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Denver’s secondary ranks as one of the worst in the NFL, expect another monster outing.

Worst Option
DEN- Julius Thomas
INDY- Trent Richardson

While I think Manning has another 3+ TD performance, I don’t think any of those TD’s will go to Julius Thomas. The Colts have yet to yield a TD to an opposing TE (having already faced Charles Clay, Vernon Davis, and Antonio Gates), so I expect that trend to continue. The trio of death that is Welker, Thomas and Decker should be the primary focus in the passing game. Is it me, or is T-Rich finding himself here a lot? Since arriving in Indy, he has yet to rush over 60 yards in a game and is now facing a Bronco’s defense that has only given up 70 yards a game. Obviously this is due to opposing offenses having to air it out against them, but that doesn’t change things. Richardson won’t get a big workload so your best hopes is him getting some goal line carries, which even then Donald Brown may vulture off of.

Vikings @ Giants

Best Option
MIN- Jerome Simpson / Greg Jennings
NYG- Eli Manning

Like Peyton, AP is the obvious choice here, and even though I have Freeman as the worst option this week, I’m curious to see who he has more of a connection with at WR. Both Simpson and Jennings have been boom/bust plays this season, and I expect that trend to continue against the Giants. I can’t tell you which one is going to be the top target for the Vikings, I just have a strong feeling one of these two is going to have a monster game. A Manning on Prime Time football? Sign me up. I know Eli is averaging nearly 2.5 Interceptions a game, but at home against a Minnesota defense that’s allowing over 300 yards a game through the air and are on the lower end of sacks? Again sign me up. With a possible rejuvenation of the running game under old man Brandon Jacobs, Eli has a great shot of putting up big numbers this week against a horrible Vikings secondary.

Worst Option
MIN- Josh Freeman
NYG- Brandon Myers

While the Giants defense is terrible, I’m sorry, I just go by the standard of it’s going to take more than 2 weeks to get a good feel on a new offense with new players. Freeman is an okay QB at best, and will score some points on Monday night, however, I fully expect the Vikings to give the Giants an enormous dose of AP, followed by short, easy passes by Freeman to ease him into this offense. Eli has seemed to find a new third option in Reuben Randle, leaving Brandon Myers and his fantasy owners in the dust. With just 2 catches in his last 3 games (2 in which Myers has received zero targets), it’s awfully hard to promote Myers in any fantasy situation (even if it is as good as this one).