The Cleveland Indian’s Ubaldo Jimenez was once one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball. For the first half of 2010, he was nearly unhittable, racking up a 2.20 ERA, .196 opponents batting average and 15 pitcher wins. He also sported a fastball that touched 100 mph, but averaged 96. He was as dominant as a pitcher could be. But that was then, and this is now. And now, Ubaldo’s got some stuff to figure out.
Since the beginning of the 2011 campaign, Jimenez is sporting a 5.23 ERA (the worst in the majors in that time). He’s also walked over 10% of the batters he’s faced. And it’s gotten worse of late. From Buster Olney’s blog today:
“Justin Havens of ESPN Stats and Info sent this along: Since July 8 of last season, Jimenez is 1-12 with a 7.27 ERA, and a .300/.386/.510 opponents’ line.”
For those unfamiliar with the batting line idea, Jimenez is turning hitters into some hybrid of Robinson Cano and Matt Holliday. That’s not good. So what gives?
The easiest place to see a difference is in Ubaldo’s drop in velocity. His fastball is down to 92, and fangraphs has him throwing more changeups than fastballs to date–something that seems more indicative of a slow fastball confusing the computer software than of the struggling Jimenez turning to a secondary pitch. Either way, he is struggling with command and is no longer the pitcher that he once was. He’s allowing approximately four more baserunners per nine innings than his all-world 2010 showing.
I also went back and looked at the release point on his fastball to see what I could see. What I saw was this:
This really didn’t tell me as much as I was hoping and that was annoying. If you notice the release point from his early season success in 2010 appears to be slightly further from his body, a bit more of the three-quarters delivery than the over-the-top variety. That seems nit-picky though and I think the real problem lies somewhere else.
An examination of pitch selection reveals that he is still featuring largely the same repertoire. He’s throwing roughly 53% fastballs, down from 64%, and he’s turned more to the changeup to make up for the difference. All that makes sense given the decreased velocity and loss of confidence in the pitch.
So how does Ubaldo figure it out? Can he just throw a video game curveball? Nope. Last year, hitters still hit .270ish against his slider and curveball. In his prime years, that number was closer to .190.
I’m out of ideas. Maybe fix those few inches on the release point? Generate some more movement? Personally, I’m ready to give up on Jimenez even if Terry Francona is not. His velocity is gone. His movement is gone. The Ubaldo of old is stuck in MLB The Show 2011. If I’m the Cleveland Indiands, I’m getting what has been the worst starter in the majors over the past two years out of my rotation. I’m putting him in the bullpen and hoping that he rediscovers the nasty.
If that doesn’t work out, Ubaldo will be heading to the Long Island Ducks with Dontrelle. The Indians need to realize that what they lost in the (ill-advised) trade is a sunk cost, and that they need to evaluate the player they have now–not the guy that they thought they were getting.
Bottom line: Ubaldo is not going to it figure out. I’m happy I’m not him.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: Hishashi Iwakuma and Justin Verlander square off tonight in Seattle. Iwakuma has a better career ERA.
Second Stat of the Day: Jimenez is making $5,750,000 this year. Unamed other members of the blog are less happy they’re not him.
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