Five NBA Christmas Takeaways

By: Alex Snorton

Growing up in Middle Tennessee as a Los Angeles Lakers fan was especially challenging before this new age of mega TV contracts, streaming services, and greater internet accessibility. There were only 15-20 times a year a young kid from the South got to watch his favorite team, and even then, there would have to be some sneaking downstairs after Mom went to bed and staying up past midnight because of the time zone differences.

Christmas is always exciting for NBA fans young and old because no matter how many gifts are under the tree, there will always be teams suiting up and playing on national television.  Christmas 2018 did not disappoint with their healthy slate of games for the public.  Below are 5 takeaways from the 5 games played on the 25th.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming for the crown and won’t be stopped:

First and foremost, Giannis is ready to take his game to the next level. When observing players’ growth in the NBA, there seems to be an interesting trend.  When a player reaches year 6, a switch flips (in the good ones).  Generally, there’s a noticeable uptick in their offensive production, and their games seem to smooth out.  Giannis has just completed the first quarter of his sixth year and looks like a man on a mission. When the ball is in his hands, Giannis is making the right play more often than not. His PER and TS% is steadily increasing while also attempt more from three-point range on a game to game basis.  It should be noted that he is increasing his offensive production without significantly increasing his usage rate.  Defensively, Giannis has displayed growth as well by increasing his rebound and block rate. Antetokounmpo’s offensive skills combined with his willingness to be an anchor for his team defensively has put the league on notice, and he’s not close to his ceiling yet.  Place your future bets on Giannis for the next few MVP races because the odds won’t get any better than they are right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKLBgcc9e0s

2. The gap to the Warriors isn’t as vast as most predicted:

The overwhelming narrative in the NBA is that the regular season does not matter because the Golden State Warriors will eventually be crowned champions.  While there are some nuggets of truth in that anecdote, the league doesn’t have to stand by and let the Warriors burn out like a brown dwarf star.  This Warriors teams is still producing at a rate that we have become accustomed to. Currently the team’s OffRtg is 112.9 (still good enough to be number 1 in the league).  Pre All-Star break in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 GSW were at 116.1 and 114.8 respectively. The biggest difference between those years and this one is the league has adjusted.  Teams across the NBA are now better suited to go blow to blow with the Warriors. Golden State is just like every other team in the league: they lace up their shoes one foot at a time, and they must work to stay on top.  The latter of those tasks is the difficult part. The 2018-2019 version of this franchise haven’t figured themselves out. This team is a carcass of what it once was due to being picked apart by free agency.  Injuries have affected this roster from top to bottom. 2 out of the 4 active All-Stars have started out of the gate slow on the offensive end, and they may just be burnt out in general. Consider the Warriors like the cast of a hit television series.  After season after season of success the cast begins to go through the motions or have their eyes on the next project. Granted, this worry could all be for not. Cousins could come back as healthy and productive as he’s been, and they reach their final form like Frieza in Dragon Ball Z.  Regardless, there is an argument to be made that the Warriors are as weak as they have been since 2016, and the league could strike now.

3. The Thunder and Rockets are on a collision path:

The Oklahoma City Thunder have come out of the gates hot and the Houston Rockets did the exact opposite.  The same could be said about the first half of the matchup between these two teams on Christmas Day.  The biggest differences right now between the Thunder and Rockets right now is health and depth.  OKC is more fortunate in the health department; Houston is objectively a deeper team from 1-15. What makes this comparison even more interesting is that we will observe significant correction for both of these teams in the standings. The Thunder and Rockets will both regress back to the mean and will most likely meet in the playoffs as the fourth and fifth seeds. There will be some tinkering with rosters down the road, and of course this prediction can only hold barring any more significant injuries to either teams.  

4. The Celtics are ready to rebound:

The Celtics have surprised the NBA by underachieving based on the preseason predictions.  Most thought that the Eastern Conference would be Boston’s to lose, but they have not started in a way that would corroborate those sentiments.  Although the Celtics began the season 5-2, their pace was mediocre at best (19th in the league during that span) and their True Shooting percentage was among one of the worst in the league (27th overall).  However, they have turned it around significantly.  In December, the Celtics have the second most wins (8) and OffRtg (118.4). After watching the Celtics performance against the 76ers, it is safe to say that Kyrie is back in his bag, and the Celtics will make a push as the ASG approaches.  Once LeBron James left the Eastern Conference, we predicted there would be a battle to claim the throne. With the resurgence of Boston, it’s now a solid four-team (five if you are one of those who put a lot of stock in the Pacers) race for the top spot.  The Celtics have everything they need to claim the number one seed: balanced roster, young & hungry stars, a stellar coach, and a front office not afraid to make a move if necessary.

5. The Lakers have big roster decisions to make:

The Lakers achieved an impactful win by going into the Bay and delivering a decisive performance that put the league on notice that they are further along than originally thought.  However, the team also left that night with more baggage aboard their private jet than they came into town with.  The Los Angeles Lakers must make a decision very soon about what to do with their front-court rotation.  Ironically, this was a question mark heading into the season, but after 34 games the Lakers have more capable bodies that can play the positions than minutes that could be fairly distributed.  With McGee returning soon from his pneumonia, Zubac filling the role of starting center effectively, and Chandler steadily recovering from his back injury, the Lakers have some difficult decisions ahead about who will get quality minutes.  Ivica Zubac has made it clear that he belongs in the league and deserves some minutes at the center position. In his 12 MPG, Ivica is shooting 66% from the field and recording a 5.1 +/-.  While the sample size is very small, Zubac is looking like a player that could make an impact for this team moving forward. Also, given that this is the last year of his contract, the Lakers need to play him more to see if they should offer him an extension.  The injury to LeBron on Christmas does buy Los Angeles some time to kick that can down the road, but eventually Pelinka and Walton must make some choices that will not only have direct implications on the rest of the season but could also affect the roster for the next few years.