With the signing of Greg Hardy, the consensus seems to be that the Cowboys #27 pick can be used on any position or the best player available. Is running back high on the Cowboys needs?
Despite signing Darren McFadden to a 2-yr deal, the Cowboys could still be in the market for a running back within the first three rounds. I think most of us thought Joseph Randle would have been Murray’s successor, but his back-to-back boneheaded, headline catching, negative publicity makes him expendable. Couple this with his low cap hit, he could be released after the Cowboys draft a running back.
So who are the Cowboys looking at?
If you’re trying to figure it out, a clue would be to look at our recent roster, including the former, DeMarco Murray. I used official combine numbers from Mockdraftable to break down the numbers. To cut to the chase, the Cowboys like their primary backs to be tall, 6-0 or above and with pass catchin production in college. (I included Dunbar and Williams, but they are below the threshold.)
Let’s look at our backs pass catching from their collegiate years:
DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma, 6-1, 217, 4.37 (BIG 12)
FR 14 for 60
SO 31 for 395
JR 41 for 522
SR 71 for 594
Darren McFadden, Arkansas, 6-1, 210, 4.33 (SEC)
FR 14 for 52
SO 11 for 149
JR 21 for 164
Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State, 6-0, 210 4.63 (BIG 12)
FR 37 for 427
SO 43 for 266
JR 28 for 224
Lance Dunbar
FR 12 for 51
SO 28 for 300
JR 28 for 332
SR 29 for 350
Ryan Williams
FR 16 for 180
SO 10 for 109
Randle definitely had the college pass catching production the Cowboys like, and would have been a perfect fit to succeed Murray. And who knows, maybe the Cowboys end up keeping Randle and he over takes McFadden for the majority of carries; however, his off field concerns are his major obstacle. Randle could face disciplinary action from the league for his past incident.
If the Cowboys are going to draft a running back early, he’ll need to have these similar traits of height and pass catching production. So who are we talking about here?
To get started, I took a look at this great article from Dane Brugler. In it, he gives us a list of running backs with the highest-to-lowest fumble rates. Basically, Ameer Abdullah fumbles the most and Malcolm Brown rarely fumbles.
35.4 — Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (8 5/8)
52.2 — Kenny Hilliard, LSU (9 1/4)
54.4 — Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin (9 3/4)
62.2 — T.J. Yeldon, Alabama (9)
62.6 — Jay Ajayi, Boise State (10)
63.2 — Matt Jones, Florida (8 5/8)
72.3 — Tevin Coleman, Indiana (8 5/8)
74.5 — David Cobb, Minnesota (9 3/8)
77.5 — David Johnson, Northern Iowa (9 5/8)
80.0 — Javorius Allen, USC (9 3/8)
85.0 — Duke Johnson, Miami (Fla.) (9 1/4)
87.3 — Mike Davis, South Carolina (9 3/8)
91.5 — Josh Robinson, Mississippi State (10 1/8)
92.7 — Karlos Williams, Florida State (9 3/4)
123.2 — Jeremy Langford, Michigan State (8 3/4)
125.0 — Terrence Magee, LSU (9)
134.4 — Zach Zenner, South Dakota State (9 5/8)
136.0 — Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn (8 7/8)
156.3 — Dominique Brown, Louisville (9 1/2)
191.7 — Todd Gurley, Georgia (10)
619.0 — Malcolm Brown, Texas (10 1/4)
— From here, we’ll sift through the list of the names the Cowboys have met with in some sort of fashion. Whether it was the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, Scouting Combine, and private interviews. Still using the order from most fumbles to least, but with their pass catching data included:
Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska, 5-9, 4.60 (BIG 10)
FR 1 for 11
SO 24 for 178
JR 26 for 232
SR 22 for 269
Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin, 6-1, 4.52 (BIG 10)
FR 2 for 65
SO 1 for 10
JR 19 for 153
T.J. Yeldon, Alabama, 6-1, 4.61 (SEC)
FR 11 for 131
SO 20 for 183
JR 15 for 180
Jay Ajayi, Boise State, 6-0, 4.57 (MWC)
FR 1 for 14
SO 22 for 222
JR 50 for 535
Tevin Coleman, Indiana, 5-11, (BIG 10)
FR 10 for 49
SO 19 for 193
JR 25 for 141
David Cobb, Minnesota, 5-11, 4.81 (BIG 10)
SO 1 for 3
JR 17 for 174
SR 16 for 162
David Johnson, UNI, 6-1, 4.50 (GATE)
FR 33 for 433
SO 32 for 383
JR 38 for 393
SR 38 for 536
Javorius Allen, USC, 6-0, 453 (PAC 12)
SO 22 for 252
JR 41 for 458
Duke Johnson, Miami, 5-9, 4.54 (ACC)
FR 27 for 221
SO 4 for 77
JR 38 for 421
Mike Davis , South Carolina, 5-9, 4.61 (SEC)
SO 34 for 352
JR 32 for 368
Jeremy Langford, Michigan State, 6-0, 4.42 (BIG 10)
JR 28 for 157
SR 11 for 62
Terrence Magee, LSU, 5-8, 4.61 (SEC)
SO 1 for 7
JR 6 for 49
SR 17 for 171
Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn, 5-10, 4.53 (SEc)
JR 1 for 4
SR 13 for 147
Todd Gurley, Georgia, 6-1, (SEC)
FR 16 for 117
SO 37 for 441
JR 12 for 57
— NEXT, we sift though players 6-0 and above:
Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin, 6-1, 4.52 (BIG 10)
FR 2 for 65
SO 1 for 10
JR 19 for 153
T.J. Yeldon, Alabama, 6-1, 4.61 (SEC)
FR 11 for 131
SO 20 for 183
JR 15 for 180
Jay Ajayi, Boise State, 6-0, 4.57 (MWC)
FR 1 for 14
SO 22 for 222
JR 50 for 535
David Johnson, UNI, 6-1, 4.50 (GATE)
FR 33 for 433
SO 32 for 383
JR 38 for 393
SR 38 for 536
Javorius Allen, USC, 6-0, 4.53 (PAC 12)
SO 22 for 252
JR 41 for 458
Jeremy Langford, Michigan State, 6-0, 4.42 (BIG 10)
JR 28 for 157
SR 11 for 62
Todd Gurley, Georgia, 6-1, (SEC)
FR 16 for 117
SO 37 for 441
JR 12 for 57
So, that’s seven players that reach the height thresholds and most have some pass catching abilities, but which ones were really utilized the most in the passing game? Here are the guys to watch closely for the draft:
Jay Ajayi, Boise State, 6-0, 4.57 (MWC)
David Johnson, UNI, 6-1, 4.50 (GATE)
Javorius Allen, USC, 6-0, 4.53 (PAC 12)
Todd Gurley, Georgia, 6-1, (SEC)
I included Gurley, as he would have likely projected more catches, somewhere in the 30 range. But, those are the four guys, the Cowboys would probably be the most interested in within the first three rounds.
We know the Cowboys have an affinity for Boise State, so Ajayi makes sense and he has the measurables the Cowboys desire. Johnson is probably the darkhorse from these four, coming from the smaller school, but he clears all the check boxes on and off the field. Allen comes from a pro-style offense and his production will attract the Cowboys as well. Gurley has the measurable, but the Cowboys will see what the medical re-checks indicate after April 18th.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying the Cowboys won’t take a running back who is under 6-0, but if they do, it’ll be in the later rounds and they’ll likely be part of a running back by committee or a change-up back.
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