Drafting a quarterback early in the draft is one of the biggest gambles a NFL team can make. Making the right choice can lead to a decade or more of success for your franchise (see Indianapolis with Peyton Manning). Make the wrong choice however, and your team can be set back for years (see Tennessee and Vince Young).
Because there are such high risks involved with drafting a QB, countless NFL minds have tried to put together a formula to distinguish franchise QBs from future busts. NFL great Bill Parcells created one of the best known formulas, which focuses on experience rather than stats. But is Parcells’ formula still relevant in today’s NFL?
1) enter the draft as a senior
2) be a starter for at least three years
3)be a college graduate
4) have 23 or more wins as a starter.
At first glance, this seems like a pretty solid system. Parcells wants a QB that has experience playing the game, is a winner, and is dedicated to his responsibilities.
The top six QBs in this year’s draft have both tons of potential and question marks. When looking at if they fulfill Parcells’ requirements, those question marks grow even larger. The top three QBs, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Jake Locker, fail to meet all of Parcells’ criteria. Gabbert and Newton actually fail to meet any of the requirements, and Locker only meets two (Locker is a senior and graduated from Washington). Ryan Mallet, while he isn’t a senior, did graduate from Arkansas, but didn’t meet any of the other criteria.
Florida State QB Christian Ponder fares somewhat better than the other QBs, as he nearly met all 4 of Parcells’ requirements. Ponder did come up one win short, finishing his career with 23 wins as a starter. The only two QBs in the top ten to meet all four of Parcells’ requirements: Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick and Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi.
Should teams stay away from the otherwise top ranked QBs because they fall short of reaching all of Parcells’ benchmarks? Just how well do these 4 criteria predict success at the next level?
At first glance, the requirements seem pretty solid. Some of the leagues top QBs, like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Phillip Rivers all passed Parcells’ test. Guys who are now past their prime but have had dominate periods in their careers like Donovan McNabb and Carson Palmer also met the requirements.
Of course, winning the Super Bowl is the ultimate indicator of success in the NFL. And when looking at that indicator, Parcells’ litmus test for QBs starts to look shakier. Out of the last ten Super Bowl winners, only the Manning brothers and Brees met Parcells’ requirements coming out of college. Both Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, two of today’s winningest QBs, don’t live up to the Parcells formula.So, Parcells’ requirements for drafting a QB alone may not predict QBs post season success. But is using his formula a good way to avoid drafting busts? Some of the biggest busts in NFL history, Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf both failed to live up to Parcells’ standards. At first glance it appears that Parcells’ formula could at least avoid busts. However, that’s not exactly the case. Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, and Jason Campbell are three guys who met his criteria coming out of college but have failed to live up to expectations in the NFL.
In the current group of young successful QBs Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, and Josh Freeman all fail to meet the Parcells standards. While Parcells’ plan may have had its merits in the past, in today’s NFL it’s pretty obvious that his formula is outdated. The NFL draft has become more and more populated by juniors. It is quite rare for an outstanding talent who has performed at a high level for 2 or more years to stay in college for his senior year. Teams don’t hesitate to draft juniors high, and the lure of multi million dollar contracts is too much for college players to resist.
Without a doubt, teams will take into account things like winning percentage and a player’s work ethic when drafting a QB. Parcells’ formula is a great way to go about determining those values in a player. However, it’s clear that these aren’t the only things that make a winning QB. There are countless factors that go into making a franchise QB, and Parcells’ requirements only take into account a couple of them.
Until someone finds the formula for predicting which players will have the most success, scouts and coaches will have to still spend endless hours watching tape of prospects to give their team the best chance of making the right decision.
Parcells’ requirements for QBs are pretty straightforward. To be comfortable drafting a QB, Parcells wants the player to:
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