As of this morning, the San Diego Padres have acquired The Good Upton to go along with their other new toys Wil Myers and Matt Kemp. San Diego sent Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, Mallex Smith to Atlanta for Justin and another low level guy, effectively continuing GM AJ Preller’s transformation of this team. San Diego has a tough road ahead in their division, a division that includes the defending world champs and a team that’s arguably better, but they are making some undeniably positive strides.
Before we take a look at what the Pads have done and what they might still do, let me first say this: I love AJ Preller. Love him. I don’t know if his moves will work, or even if they’re good ideas but this guy is running the Padres like every single fan would. Like everyone whose always wanted to get the keys to a franchise and finally, finally has. He’s doing stuff! He’s doing lots of stuff. Too many times, GM’s come in to bad teams and tinker around the edges and talk the talk without walking the walk. If a team is getting a new GM, chances are they’re bad. Mix stuff up, make a splash, get some pieces. Preller is doing this like a video game and its great. He’s a young ambitious guy not afraid to take some chances and for a vanilla franchise like the Padres, he couldn’t be a better fit.
Now, let’s look at what AJ’s been up to….
UPDATE: In the middle of writing the post, Preller just flipped catcher Ryan Hannigan to Boston for third baseman Will Middlebrooks.
In addition to trading Yasmani Grandal to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, the Pads acquired Wil Myers, the 2013 rookie of the year and a right fielder, from Tampa in a three team deal that will be officially announced today. Couple that with Upton and the Padres have an entirely new outfield. Last season, San Diego ran out a sometimes-healthy Cameron Maybin, an overachieving Seth Smith, and Will Venable in what was a speedy and athletic trio. While that certainly has some appeal, it clearly didn’t work so Preller has decided to go another direction. The three new guys are all questionable defensively and powerful right handed bats. There is no true center fielder among the bunch.
What’s especially interesting about all these trades is that the Padres existing stock of major league talent has been essentially untouched. In fact, the Pads top minor league talent is intact too, with the exception of Trea Turner who went to Washington in the Myers deal. This gives the Padres the opportunity to mix and match with their favorite current Padres with all the new talent and then deal what they don’t like to fill some more holes. Not a particularly bad position to be in. Let’s look at what San Diego has now and what they still might want to do.
Lineup:
(Note: there are many thoughts on what the lineup could be. Most likely, the Padres will play Myers, Kemp, and Upton in the outfield but I’ve decided to get a little more creative with it in order to improve their defense a little.)
- Will Venable CF
- Derek Norris C
- Justin Upton LF
- Matt Kemp RF
- Wil Myers 1b
- Jedd Gyorko 2b
- Will Middlebrooks 3b
- Clint Barmes Ss
Rotation:
- Andrew Cashner
- Tyson Ross
- Josh Johnson
- Odrisamer Despaigne
- Ian Kennedy
- Brandon Morrow
You’ll notice that my lineup, while incorporating Will Venable, leaves out Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Rymer Liriano, and Alexi Amarista. Sure, some of those guys will be backups but the Padres are faced with that Red Sox-like outfield overabundance. Quentin has some definite value for American League teams in search of a DH who can play some outfield and the Padres should be looking for some bullpen help, another starter who won’t get hurt, or some middle infielders.
In fact, Fangraph’s Dave Cameron came up with another idea that could help SD fill some holes. The Rangers’ Jurrickson Profar could be a great fit for the Pads at short, where they desperately need help. Wil Myers would fit Texas’ right field hole and might be enough to finally pry Profar from Texas, especially now that he missed last season and his value has dropped.
I think, given the injury history of Kemp and Myers, though, the most likely thing that will happen is that San Diego will keep all three of its new outfielders along with Seth Smith. Rymer Liriano isn’t going anywhere either. I think the Padres will flip Quentin and one or both of Venable and Maybin for a shortstop or some bullpen arms. I also think San Diego will look to move Yonder Alonso, their current first basemen, who still has some value and could bring back a decent return.
One complication is top prospect Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe is an outfielder and that’s pretty crowded right now on the big club. Justin Upton is a free agent after this season so if San Diego doesn’t resign him, Renfroe could fit in there. Otherwise, if the plan is to extend Upton, Renfroe could be the piece needed to get a top line starter to go with Cashner and Ross.
Are the Padres ready to hang with LA and San Fran over 162 games? I’m not sure. Are they a heck of a lot closer than they were 3 weeks ago and a real wild card contender at the very least? Definitely. AJ Preller has done an incredible job making the Padres relevant again and fans should be excited. This team is full of potential but they aren’t a finished product, it’ll be fascinating to see what other moves are made in the next two months to make the pieces fit together a little more snugly. I don’t think Tim Lincecum can count on his third Padres no-hitter in 2015….
-Max Frankel
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