The NFL has always been a copycat league. In last year’s draft, the top DT’s drafted, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, and Tyson Alualu, provided sparks for the teams that drafted them. It’s no surprise then that that this year’s top DT prospect, Nick Fairley, is getting a lot of attention from NFL teams.
After having a junior season that was nothing short of dominating, Fairley’s stock has sky rocketed. Many mock drafts have him as the number one overall pick. Is Fairley worth the high draft pick? Let’s see how he compares with the top three draft picks from last year’s draft.
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took Gerald McCoy (6’4, 295 lbs) with the third overall pick of the draft, their hope was they would be getting a disruptive force to play the three technique – something the Bucs had been missing since Warren Sapp. At Oklahoma, McCoy became known at one of the top DTs in college football. Like Alualu, McCoy was a consistent starter, starting 40 games in a row.
The Sooner had dominating sophomore and junior seasons, compiling 64 tackles (26 for a loss) and 12.5 sacks over that stretch. McCoy is very explosive off the ball but is also very patient. He does a good job of not over pursuing the QB. Because of his patience he puts up less impressive stats, but he makes up for it by clogging running lanes. McCoy’s rookie season started slowly, but he closed the year strong (28 tackles, 3 sacks) until a torn biceps put him on IR in week 13.
The prize of the 2010 draft was Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh (6’4 300 lbs). Suh’s remarkable combination of size, speed, and an intense drive to get to the QB made him irresistible to Jim Schwartz and the Detroit Lions at the number two pick. Suh started 38 out of his last 39 games at Nebraska, and throughout his career he put up nearly unheard of numbers. In his senior year he recorded 85 tackles and 12 sacks. In 2009 he won both the Outland Trophy and the AP College Player of the Year award. His incredible explosion and strength led to an outstanding rookie season with the Lions, where he had 66 tackles and 10 sacks.
How does Fairley look when compared to these three DTs? Physically, Fairley (6’5, 298 lbs) is everything you want in a DT. In fact, he may even be a better physical specimen than Suh. Fairley has the remarkable combination of size, speed, and strength that Suh also possesses. While Fairley has yet to run the 40 yard dash, its thought that Fairley may actually be faster than Suh. That speed and strength proves deadly in the trenches, and Fairley will undoubtedly use it to dominate NFL OGs.
The comparisons to Suh don’t stop with measurables. Fairley and Suh both play the game with a seeming hatred for the opposing QB. Unlike McCoy, who tends to play the position more conservatively to allow himself to defend against the run, Fairley pursues the QB nonstop. Often Fairley gets in a late blow to the QB, causing many of his opponents to accuse him of being a dirty player.
Comparing Fairley to last year’s top rookie DTs also raises some legitimate concerns about Fairley’s future. Suh, McCoy, and Alualu, all started at least 38 games in a row while playing in college. Each player demonstrated significant growth over each season they were starters. Fairley, however, only started one year at Auburn, and has been called a one year wonder.
Scouts would also like to see Fairley play with the effort displayed by the likes of Suh and Alualu for more than just one season. This, as well as rumored issues with Fairley’s practice habits, raises concerns about his ability to sustain his current level of play. Fairley is also known to hang around with some former NFL players with a less than desirable work ethic. As reported by Optimum Scouting, Fairley is good friends with Jamarcus Russell. To say the least, Russell is not exactly the guy you want your young DT with rumored work ethic issues to hang around with.
In spite of these issues, there is little doubt that Fairley will be taken in the top three picks of the draft, and will likely be number one pick. Though it’s unlikely that Fairley will have the same enormous impact that Suh did for the Lions, it’s also unfair to hold Fairley to such high expectations. Suh’s rookie year was one of a kind, and it’s not something that should be expected out of every rookie DT. However, Fairley has an extremely high ceiling as a DT in the NFL. With maximum effort, he will be a dominant DT in the league for years to come. It’s safe to say that whatever team Fairley lands with will likely not be disappointed with their investment.
Rankings: QB – RB – WR – TE – OT – OG – C – DT – DE – OLB – ILB – CB – S
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