By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)
It was over, the United States had done it! Two second-half goals had completed the comeback against a dangerous Portugal side, and for the first time in their World Cup history, the Stars and Stripes were heading to the knockout round in consecutive tournaments. As the final seconds ticked away, Michael Bradley was ready to receive the ball in the middle of the field with no defender near him. Even if he just held for a moment before kicking the ball out of bounds, the US was assured the win. Instead, disaster struck! Bradley got just about the worst touch on the ball humanly possible, Portugal assumed possession, and one Cristiano Ronaldo gem of a pass later, Thursday’s matches became much more interesting. It was like some sort of elaborate performance art sequence on getting blue balled right before climax.
Still, in the big picture, Sunday’s result was not a disaster. The US did manage to earn a crucial point against Portugal with the draw, and now have a 76% chance of advancing according to Soccer Power Index odds. Granted, it’s not the 100% chance they had of advancing if they play 30 more seconds of defense, but as a wise man once said, ‘That’s Life!’. Scenarios abound for how the US can advance, the simplest of which being to secure a win or draw against Germany. With the Germans also clinching first place in the group with a draw, Thursday’s meeting might be played as conservatively as Fox News. However, even if the United States lose, they can still advance if Portugal and Ghana draw, or if they win the tiebreaker against the winner of that match. The first tiebreaker would be goal differential, with the US currently at +1, Ghana at -1 and Portugal -4. So if someone is going to win between Portugal and Ghana, US fans should hope it would be Portugal.
Aside from the heartbreaking nature of the draw, there was plenty to be encouraged about regarding the United States’ performance. Primarily, it was one of the better offensive displays we’ve seen from them in some time. Over and over again, they took advantage of Cristiano Ronaldo playing as much defense as James Harden. He was clearly limited by injury out there but I still can’t remember a single occasion where the Portuguese star tracked back defensively. The US was happy to exploit that offensive advantage, as you can see in the chart below of their chances created, courtesy of FourFourTwo.com.
All of the chances took place on the right side of the field (with the yellow arrow representing the beautiful Graham Zusi assist on the Dempsey goal after the ball had been deflected from the right side). The German side will obviously not have the defensive leaks we saw from Portugal, but it’s still encouraging that the US recognized where an opening was and took advantage accordingly. Even with the odds in their favor, they’ll need to jump on any advantage they can and try to take care of business themselves on the pitch Thursday.
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