Is Colin Kaepernick on Track to be a 1st Round Selection?

Without question, one of the biggest risers in the draft process from shortly after the season, through the Senior Bowl, and just days before the Combine is Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

He’s gone from developmental late round guy during the season to improved passer and a mid round intriguing prospect. He’s now gone from mid round prospect to highly coveted early rounder thanks to his very impressive skill set, and now there are reports he might not make it past pick 32.

But is a spread offense, footwork in progress, non-NFL ready throwing motion, not overly accurate quarterback really worth a 1st round pick? There are a few things to consider.

For one, NFL teams will always choose talent and potential over a guy who’s a lock to be a role player. In my opinion, a quarterback like Greg McElroy will always have a role in the NFL as a back-up and I think Jake Locker and Pat Devlin are the most pro-ready technique-wise. But having a quarterback with his size (6’4), and his rocket arm strength (likely only behind Cam Newton and maybe Ryan Mallett in this draft) is hard to pass up on for NFL teams.

Secondly, a lot of teams need quarterback. As many as ten teams are in need of a franchise quarterback, and come draft day when a team is choosing between a 3-4 defensive end or a right tackle or an outside linebacker and a possible face of the franchise, they likely will look to the quarterback.

And finally, the CBA struggles will have a huge impact on the draft. Sure, guys like Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb are available and still can be capable starters in the NFL for at least 2-3 more years. But those free agents can’t be signed until AFTER a new CBA is signed. Are NFL teams really going to gamble that much on not drafting a quarterback and risking their current quarterback situation?

All that being said, I would be wary of Colin being a 1st round pick as of now, pre-Combine. Could he wow enough to become one of the draft’s top 2-3 quarterbacks? Very possible. Could he be a better starting quarterback in the NFL than Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Cam Newton, the three quarterbacks that we (www.OptimumScouting.com) have above him? Again, it’s very possible, and in speaking with him, I really do wish that he gets close to if not accomplishing that goal.

The three things that will have some teams jawing for him late in the 1st round are his arm strength, his quick development over his career, and his overall “it” factor. A rocket arm has started not to become the end all be all for quarterbacks, but it’s naive to overlook that aspect. He shortened his throwing motion and was quicker in his drops at the Senior Bowl since his last game at Nevada, showing he is very coachable. And when you’re around him, speak with him and the people he’s been with, you can tell he’s a leader, a student of the game, and is a winner.

With all those factors, I could see teams like the Titans, Dolphins, Bills, Vikings, Bengals, Jaguars, and Seahawks very interested in him as they either stay put, trade down, or trade up in the draft late in round one to get him. Ideally, if he’s a second round pick, they’re will be drastically less pressure for him to play early and therefore give him a chance to adapt better.

But as we’ve seen in the past, when NFL teams think a guy can be a starter in the NFL in the future, they want that future to be tomorrow. And with so much interest, so many teams in need of a quarterback, and so much riding on the quarterback position with an in-the-air CBA, Colin Kaepernick could be a hot commodity on draft day late in the 1st round.