The current thinking around Major League Baseball holds that dominant starting pitching is absolutely necessary for success, certainly in the regular season, but even more so in the playoffs. Teams bend over backwards to make sure they have a formidable short series staff. On the flip side, when teams make deals that might detract from the front end of the rotation they bear a lot of criticism.
Oakland Athletics’ GM Billy Beane, renowned for his innovative takes on roster construction, traded cleanup hitter Yoenis Cespedes, a key bat from the heart of his lineup, to get Jon Lester, the Ace he felt his team needed to succeed in October. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski traded Doug Fister this winter in an effort to bolster his infield, and he’s still taking heat for it despite now having assembled a rotation that features each of the last three AL Cy Young award winners.
Rotations, and pitching in general, are doubtlessly important. Perhaps even more so now than ever before. Teams are striking out in record numbers and scoring less and less. Increasingly, individual pitchers are able to dominate on a consistent basis–Clayton Kershaw is having an all-time great season, but is certainly not the only hurler dominating at an impressive clip. Teams, in an effort to capitalize on the recent surge in pitching prowess, have understandably prioritized arms ahead of bats.
The results are some downright scary rotations and some glaringly spotty lineups. The Tigers, who have world series aspirations, trot out Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, and now David Price 4 out of every 5 days, but play a below average centerfielder after trading Austin Jackson to get Price. Without Jose Iglesias, they have a revolving group of terrible options manning shortstop. Likewise, the A’s have struggled mightily since dealing Cespedes for Lester in July.
Of course, most of the time, the strategy works well. The Tigers, despite their flaws, are in first place; the A’s are the leading AL Wild Card team; and the Nationals and Dodgers have ridden phenomenal rotations to first place in their divisions as well. So many teams wouldn’t be employing the tactic if it didn’t yield results.
There is, however, a counter example. One team, in fact the very best team, is trying to win on the strength of their offense. The Angels are 93-55 and are winners of their last 10 games, going into Sunday. They have an 11 game lead in the AL West despite trailing the A’s until recently. They currently place 21st in all of baseball in quality starts.
The Angels’ best pitcher this year, Garret Richards, is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury, and if you ask 10 different people who LA’s 5th starter is, you might get 5 different answers. The Angels don’t have a single starter worth even 3 wins above replacement, and only have one guy, Jarred Weaver, above 2 WAR. They don’t win by out-pitching their opponent, they win by out-scoring them.
The Halos are 1st in the majors in runs, 3rd in batting average, 4th in OBP, and 5th in slugging. They are led, of course, by baseball’s best player, Mike Trout, who is batting .290 with a career high 34 homers and 107 RBI. Trout is the presumptive MVP this season after finishing second to Miguel Cabrera in each of the last two campaigns, and boasts an impressive 8.3 offensive WAR. Trout isn’t alone, however. Albert Pujols has had a nice season too, swatting 26 bombs, driving in 94 and batting .275. In addition, Howie Kendrick leads the team in hits and average and Erick Aybar and rookie Kole Calhoun have contributed as well.
The Angels, despite leading the division by more than 10 games, are just third in the AL West in runs allowed. They’ve just scored so many time that they are MLB’s runaway leader in run differential.
It’ll be really interesting to see how the high octane Angels offense fares in October against the super rotations of some of the other likely playoff teams. Will Trout and Co. manage to out hit the Tigers for five games when they have to do it against the likes of Max Scherzer? Further, pitching strategy changes in the playoffs. Unlike the regular season, managers do whatever they can to make sure that each matchup in the course of a game favors the pitcher as much as possible. On top of that, colder Fall weather favors pitchers over hitters. As a general rule, it’s harder to score in October.
I really look forward to watching the Angels in the playoffs. Their games will certainly be more entertaining than the pitcher’s duels we’re likely to get in most other series. It would certainly help the Angels if they had a true Ace to run out against the likes of Price, Lester, and Kershaw, but their model can’t be argued with thus far. In a league hell bent on pitching, LA brings the bats. Where that strategy will take them is anybody’s guess, but it will sure be fun to find out.
-Max Frankel
Stat of the Day: The Angles have a .700 winning percentage in games decided by 5 or more runs.
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