The Cinderella story of college football is undoubtedly the Houston Cougars who are now ranked inside the top 10 of the BCS for the first time in school history. Sitting just behind non-AQ dominator Boise State, the Houston Cougars “fit the slipper” so to speak. Undefeated and led by a Heisman candidate at quarterback who holds essentially every passing record in FBS history, the Cougars are in the midst of their greatest single season in school history.
Now I could start listing off statistics, in regards to the ability and production of starting Houston quarterback Case Keenum, but it’s more important to break down the actual skill set of Keenum based purely off of film study. Production and wins do factor into the evaluation process of future NFL prospects, however these two aspects are to be weighed accordingly. So without any more delay, this is what I’ve seen out of Case Keenum this season.
Case Keenum, QB, Houston, RS SR, 6’2, 210
Gets depth on his pass drops in 3 step and 5 step timing patterns, separating hands and feet from football just as receiver is making initial route break. Able to put a good amount of zip on his ball, despite having such a compact and quick release. Short windup, brings ball back and rips thru; consistently transfers weight properly, stepping into throws within the pocket when given time, looking down the barrel with his shoulder to target, and opening up his hips at the throw. Throws from ¾’s arm slot. Athletic player that utilizes good knee flex and bend at the top of his drop, getting the most out of his lower half. Almost always gets his feet, hips, and shoulders set before the throw; delivers the football at the pace of the offense. If initial target is not there, he buys time with good pocket mobility and escapability, maintains focus on downfield targets, and locates the open receiver.
Tough player that has battled thru multiple injuries, will stand under pressure with poise and confidence. Has mobility to extend the pass, light on his feet at the end of his pass drop, and very aware of his surroundings. Seems to be a quick thinker who processes information more rapidly than most system quarterbacks, but often times predetermines throw at line of scrimmage. Receivers pad his stats with excellent run after the catch ability, heavy dosage of screens, bubbles, and drag routes as well. Throws the curl and out route with exceptional timing, placement, and good velocity; doesn’t allow defenders to get hands on the football and generally keeps the ball off the dirt.
Short area touch and accuracy is quite impressive, able to take off velocity depending on the given route concept, spinning a tight ball on all throws. Elite feel and accuracy on bucket throws, primarily on fade routes but also corner-flags. On deep go-fade route and deep post, Keenum puts inordinate amount of loft on the football; spins a clean ball that cuts thru wind and turns over nicely. Has tendency to hang ball up in the air by putting too much loft on football. Ball placement on throws is good to great at times, especially within 20 yards. Sees the field very well and does good job of deciphering coverages post snap; moves off of his primary target with confidence in secondary options. Game is never too fast for him, has calm sense of confidence and control within the air raid offense of Houston. Very underrated improvisational skills, buy time either inside or outside the pocket, to extend the pass as noted earlier.
Will lock into primary target in short passing game, but manipulates the safeties and backers with eye level in intermediate to deep passing tree. Rarely misses a read in pre snap diagnosis, locating mismatch(es) and exploiting. Said to have “free reign” in the offensive playcalling and at the line of scrimmage audibling. While this is a vast overstatement, Keenum does have responsibility of calling out blitz protection adjustments and run check downs depending on the look of the defense. In Houston offense, receivers have the ability to make adjustments mid route, and 99% of the time Keenum is on the same page with these mid route adjustments.
Given time to develop under the center footwork, mechanics, and understanding of an NFL playbook, I see Keenum as a patchwork starter and career backup in the NFL. Keenum is strikingly similar to, now 3rd string quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, Graham Harrell who himself is a Texas Tech QB product that came from a pass-happy, air raid system offense. Harrell had to work at the CFL level before garnering attention of NFL teams, and with Keenum being a much better natural athlete as well as more developed mentally as a passer, there’s no reason to doubt he will be on an NFL roster before the start of the 2012 season. As of now Keenum maintains a late round draft grade, which will rise or fall based off of his pre draft performances at the combine and senior bowl. Level of competition is what really hurts Keenum, as his toughest opponent to date has been the SMU Mustanges… His velocity on the football has yet to be tested a truly talented secondary, and I honestly hope he gets to face a legitimate defense for a bowl game. We will know much more about Keenum as an NFL prospect once he gets his feet wet against an actually good defense (no offense to the C-USA, but we all know its not the SEC).
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