The 2016-17 Minnesota Timberwolves are going to be one of the most exciting stories in the NBA, but with a dozen stories to choose from, the defense of Andrew Wiggins will be the most important factor for the Wolves when looking to take the next step as a franchise.
This is the part where I quickly address the elephant in the blog – Karl-Anthony Towns is the man in Minnesota. He’s the heir to the recently abdicated throne. He will hoist the mantle of Kevin Garnett onto his shoulders and wreck the league for approximately 15 more seasons. But he is KAT, and the Timberwolves are more than that. He had a phenomenal rookie season and it still wasn’t going to carry them out of the league’s bottom five spots.
Next up, it isn’t Zach LaVine. Sure, he’s bound to evolve in a major way. And it wasn’t easy to choose against him as the X-Factor. Keeping him away from point guard at almost any cost is a phenomenal idea and I believe that the new man in charge, Tom Thibodeau, is going to play it that way because he is a brilliant basketball mind. LaVine’s shooting and overall effort should jump under the watch of Thibs. There isn’t much other option, unless LaVine wants to find himself traded away from Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn, Towns and Wiggins. Maybe that is what he wants, but that sounds awful to me. Also, imagine how far Thibs will go to break the bad habits and push the limitations of comfort of every member of the Minnesota basketball team before granting them the release of playing under a cool, young, new-school coach like Luke Walton or Fred Hoiberg.
Yes, Ricky Rubio needs to stay healthy and continue to work on his shooting. Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad are still works in progress or they aren’t. Either they need to take another step soon, or at some point in the near future it will be assumed that they have already maximized their potential.
Then there’s Thibs. The new coach of the Wolves is the pioneer of the defensive schemes that define the modern NBA. He won a NBA title with KG in Boston. He turned Vinny Del Negro’s Chicago Bulls into perennial favorites to dethrone LeBron James in the East. He tests the limits of finite ability in each player he coaches and then pushes them to break that threshold. Then he pushes them to do it again and again and again. Thibodeau is a huge upgrade at the coaching position over Sam Mitchell. There is a time and place for Mitchell, but Minnesota is no longer either of those things for him.
The expected progression of the youth on the squad combined with the arrival of Thibodeau has people predicting playoffs for the Wolves in some scenarios, but in almost every situation there is strong belief that in or out of the playoffs after 82 games, Minnesota should improve by at least five or six wins at a minimum.
So, it’s Wiggins. This all comes down to the former No. 1 pick, who served as the primary return from Cleveland in the Kevin Love trade. The reason that Wiggins makes such a great X-Factor for the Timberwolves is that he is the least defined player of this young core in relationship to his potential and expectations placed on him by the public.
Wiggins was always the most exciting player heading into the 2014 NBA Draft. It wasn’t always a lock, Jabari Parker was the real deal, but it did resemble the way people discussed Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. There were two talents way ahead of the rest of that draft class and even between them, there was so much debate that starkly contrasted the abilities and potential of one another. (Editor’s Note: Don’t forget Joel Embiid was in the convo at No. 1 until injury concerns arose.)
Where Wiggins has met most of the expectations placed on him is the offensive end of the floor. As a rookie, he averaged 16.8 points, shooting 43.7 percent from the floor per 36 minutes. During his second season in Minnesota, he improved his per 36 numbers to 21.2 points and 45.9 percent shooting from the field.
Beyond his shooting, he has some low rebounding and assist numbers. Key Sang of Canis Hoopus had this to say of Wiggins, back in February:
“Compared to last season, Wiggins has regressed in everything non-scoring related. His rebounding, assists, steals, blocks (and likewise, reb%, ast%, stls% and blks%) are all down. His three point rate has gone up, but his three point shooting percentage has gone down, and his Box +/-, Replacement Player score, and RPM are all thoroughly negative.”
When Sang’s piece was published, Minnesota had played 48 games of the season. His information was accurate and well-stated. Over the remainder of the season, Wiggins shot better and posted his best steal and assist total months for the season. It took Wiggins a while to get rolling in 2015-16, but he still has a long way to go based on what his expectations are for his future in the league.
If the offense has been there, the real issue is the defensive side of the ball. Defense is where Thibs eats and sleeps. His teams live and die by their defensive abilities. And this is where Wiggins needs to show what he really is and can be in the future.
This quote from Kevin Pelton of ESPN explains Wiggins’ defense as it currently stands:
“As I’ve noted, Wiggins generally is a pretty good on-ball defender. I don’t think his defense is so bad as to keep him from being a star player in the league. It’s just not remotely what was advertised by scouts, or what conventional wisdom continues to believe because of his skill set.”
That basically hits the nail on the head. Wiggins was touted for his extremely high potential as a wing defender. There were allusions to Gary Payton. Nothing like that has happened, yet.
The quote from Pelton was brought to my attention by the excellent work of Nick Sciria, who launched a massive series of tweets about Wiggins on both ends of the floor in August. In this thread of tweets, Sciria covers an incredible amount of information on Wiggins.
Andrew Wiggins only mustered up 1.8 steals per 100 possessions, which ranked 28th out of 43 SFs.
— Nicholas Sciria (@Nick_Sciria) August 12, 2016
Wiggins doesn’t get a lot of steals, despite his great length. Mostly, Wiggins has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to keep his man in front of him when that player has the ball. It seems like he understands that he doesn’t want to get beat off the dribble or in any scenarios where the result of the play will be determined by his individual defensive effort. He moves very well for any age or skill level of basketball player in the league. But, it is all the other little things that add up to make it feel like there should be more from the Timberwolf.
The hesitation in his game seems to be a mental focus on not getting beat. Of course, that is only true when he can maintain mental focus. Wiggins checked out or got caught ball-watching a lot last year. He’s going to be in a new system this season.
The arrival of Thibs is extremely important for the next stage of development for every core player in Minnesota, but Wiggins in particular will be a focus this year. As the starting forward at the 3 for Thibs, the expectation will be great defense. His evolution on that end of the floor will be a major indicator of the team’s overall progress and identity.
Regardless of whether Wiggins blooms or wilts under Thibs, this season will go a long way in defining his true potential on both ends of the floor, but particularly on defense. A major improvement there would drastically impact Wiggins’ reputation – as well as the Timberwolves’ win total. Wiggins might emerge as one of the best two-way small forwards in the entire league, or he might define himself as a high-floor prospect who had too lofty of expectations thrust upon him. This development will serve as the X-Factor for both team and player in 2016-17.
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