Off The Bench wanted to give our opinion on who’s in line to win the end of the year awards. Some of them are fairly easy to call while others (AL MVP) have a few storylines and are open to an interpretation of value. An exercise like this helps in looking back at the fun 162 game season we just experienced while going back and looking at who we thought would win these awards in our 30 Teams in 30 Days series during Spring Training. Without further ado:
AL MVP: Justin Verlander. Much has been made of Justin Verlander’s historic year and for good reason. If the Tigers had given Verlander the start when he was due up in the rotation on the second to last day of the regular season, he would have had a chance to become the first pitcher since 1972 to strikeout 250 while winning 25 games. The thing that hurts Verlander is that he pitches just every five days while his competitors fro the award play every day. Many voters will use that against Verlander but here’s the thing, nobody meant more to their team than Justin Verlander and he was involved in more plate appearances than any other player this year (969). Jacoby Ellsbury had a great year (32 homers, 39 steals, 105 RBI out of the leadoff spot, playing Center Field) but, he couldn’t stop the September collapse despite his many attempts (5 homers in the last 9 games) and he just doesn’t feel like an MVP. I’m going to use the same argument for Curtis Granderson: great year, important to his teams success, nearly 120 RBI out of a center fielder, just doesn’t feel like an MVP. I’m typically a numbers guy but in this case, we’re going with old school feel. Be upset sabermetricians, be very upset. 30 Teams Pick: Adrian Gonzalez
AL Rookie of the Year: Alexi Ogando. If you had told me before the year started that Alexi Ogando would post a 3.51 ERA while striking out 126, I would have said “who?” Ogando went from seldom used reliever in 2010, appearing in 44 games with a 1.30 ERA, to a legitimate playoff starter for the Texas Rangers this year. Ogando leads AL Rookies in WAR, and the other candidates have serious flaws. Mark Trumbo sports a .291 OBP despite his 29 bombs, Desmond Jennings went 10 HR, and 20 steals in just 63 games but again 63 games, and Brett Lawrie had just 9 HR while playing all year in Toronto. I’m going to give Ogando the slight nod over Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson, who both had impressive seasons.
NL MVP: Matt Kemp*. Matt Kemp put up an unbelievable year out in Los Angeles and got very little attention for it. He nearly won the Triple Crown. He finished first in the NL with 39 homers and 126 RBI’s while playing on a bad team and third in batting average with .324. Throw in that he stole 40 bases and played Center Field, it’s very hard to argue that he wasn’t both the best player in the NL and the most valuable to his team. Yes, his team finished 11.5 games out of first but as Keith Law said if it weren’t for Matt Kemp on the Dodgers we’d be making fun of them instead of the Astros. Some will see Ryan Braun as the top guy but I don’t even think he’s the most intimidating/ valuable player on his own team. 30 Team Pick: Let’s Just say I had Jason Heyward finishing 3rd in the voting.
NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel blew the save in game 162 but that doesn’t take away from his awesome rookie season. He lead the majors in saves while striking out 14.89/9IP. He was a dominant closer on a team that played a bunch of close games. 30 Teams Pick: Freddie Freeman
AL CY Young: Justin Verlander. If anyone wants to argue against the guy with the most wins, strikeouts, innings pitched, and lowest WHIP and ERA just go home. 30 teams pick: CC Sabathia
NL CY Young: Clayton Kershaw*. This vote should be interesting because Kershaw and Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay have very similar numbers. I give the edge to Kershaw because of his 20 extra strikeouts, lower WHIP and 2 more wins. Its really picking straws here and I think voters will go with Kershaw as they are tired of writing Halladay into the top spot. 30 Teams pick: Halladay
*Fun Fact… Kemp and Kershaw both come from the 82 win Dodgers. If they both win, it will be the 7th time in history 1 team had both the MVP and Cy Young award winner: Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt in ’80, Ryne Sandberg and Rick Sutcliff in ’84, Orel Hershiser and Kirk Gibson in ’88, Bob Welch and Ricky Henderson in ’90, Jack Mcdowell and Frank Thomas in ’93, Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols in ’05, and Justin Monerau and Johan Santana in ’06. The previous low in wins by that team was 91 by Carlton and Schmidt’s Phillies team that went on to win the World Series. Every other teammate combo went to the Playoffs.
Link of the day: The Face of A Walkoff is a fantastic article submitted at Fangraphs that somehow captures the moments in the epic Rays game from game 162. Give it a read if you want to relive the moment or in case you accidentally missed it.
-Sean Morash
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