Each week, I’ll reprint portions of the DVOA standings from Football Outsiders (this week’s link: here and give analysis of the teams relevant to the Steelers’ fortunes
I had hoped to go in-depth on the Steelers game each week to find the game-changing plays, but Football Outsiders doesn’t have individual game recaps/box scores that I can analyze. Instead, I’ll look at their DVOA standings for the division and projected playoff teams and analyze how they changed from the previous week.
As you’ll see in the chart, there’s no “D” in DVOA just yet (Wait, you talked about DVOA all this time, and now when the season starts, it’s different? Huh?). With only one week’s worth of games, the defense adjustment (the “D” part) can’t be done, so the relevant stat is just VOA, or the cumulative value of each play compared to the average from past similar situations.
Well, actually, the relevant stat is “DAVE”, which has technically is an acronym, but they used it to lampoon all their other acronyms. Cool, huh? What you need to know is that it combines VOA with their preseason projection to give it more of a predictive value, since you can’t use one game to accurately predict what will happen the rest of the season (though everyone tries).
Kris Kross’ll make you jump for the standings and the rest of the analysis.
So, here you go:
|
Team |
VOA |
Rank |
DAVE |
Rank |
Offense |
Rank |
Defense |
Rank |
Special Teams |
Rank |
|
BAL |
8.8% |
15 |
29.2% |
1 |
-32.1% |
27 |
-45.5% |
3 |
-4.5% |
22 |
|
PIT |
13.5% |
13 |
25.5% |
2 |
0.0% |
16 |
-12.4% |
13 |
1.0% |
16 |
|
CIN |
-50.4% |
29 |
-7.4% |
21 |
20.9% |
8 |
52.5% |
32 |
-18.8% |
30 |
|
CLE |
-1.4% |
18 |
-18.6% |
28 |
-9.6% |
21 |
-17.0% |
10 |
-8.8% |
26 |
VOA: Value Over Average; DAVE: DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (told you it was dumb)
What jumps out from the Steelers perspective (other than the fact that Football Outsiders was high on them in their preseason projections) is the downright average performance on Sunday. The offense, in particular, was exactly average. While I can’t find data on the site, I’m guessing that if they separated it by half, it would be negative in the first half and positive in the second half. Individually, Dennis Dixon had a -5.5% VOA, 21st in the NFL, and Rashard Mendenhall had a 15.5% VOA, eighth in the league.
The special teams were 1 percent better than average last week (a good performance compared to last year). The best component was punts, 1.7 expected points better than average (not a surprise if you saw Daniel Sepulveda do his thing), and the worst was field goals/extra points and 1.7 points worse than average (not a surprise if you saw Jeff Reed miss that field goal at the end of regulation). The kickoffs were a solid 0.8 points above average (hey, maybe it was the kickoff coverage after all!) and the much-maligned fair catches of Antwaan Randle El were 0.4 points below average.
Defense, obviously, was the exception to the averageness, which is the big reason they won. As you would expect, they were much better at rush defense (-24.5% VOA, 11th in the league) than at pass defense (-4.0% VOA, 13th in the league)
From the rest of the division, one thing that jumps right out is that the Bengals had the worst defensive performance of the weekend, and fourth-worst overall. Of course, it hasn’t been adjusted for the fact they were facing the Patriots, but it’s still horrible, and no number of Ochocincos and Ochounos can help an awful defense. (By the way, when I predicted the Bengals to start 5-1 in my predictions list, I thought they’d lose game 1 and win five straight. I’m right so far…)
They’re not on my chart, but the Steelers’ next opponent, the Titans, had the second-best performance on Sunday, with a 59.1% VOA. Their DAVE, though, is -0.2%, 18th in the league. I think it’ll still be a tough game, with the Titans at home, Dixon at QB, and Max Starks potentially out.
Now, for FO’s latest AFC playoff odds. Football Outsiders uses their rankings to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times and calculate the likelihood that teams make the playoffs:
|
Team |
Rec |
DAVE |
EWins |
#1 |
#2 |
#3 |
#4 |
#5 |
#6 |
DIV |
BYE |
WC |
Total |
|
BAL |
1-0 |
29.2% |
11.0 |
28.8% |
13.4% |
7.3% |
2.7% |
23.6% |
10.9% |
52.2% |
42.3% |
34.5% |
86.7% |
|
PIT |
1-0 |
25.5% |
10.8 |
24.7% |
12.3% |
6.8% |
2.7% |
25.0% |
10.3% |
46.5% |
37.0% |
35.3% |
81.8% |
|
CIN |
0-1 |
-7.4% |
6.2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
1.5% |
3.2% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
4.7% |
5.8% |
|
CLE |
0-1 |
-18.6% |
5.0 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
1.5% |
1.7% |
|
NE |
1-0 |
25.0% |
10.0 |
14.3% |
16.3% |
11.9% |
6.1% |
10.5% |
12.1% |
48.6% |
30.6% |
22.6% |
71.1% |
|
MIA |
1-0 |
14.0% |
9.5 |
9.5% |
11.2% |
9.6% |
5.4% |
10.5% |
13.9% |
35.6% |
20.7% |
24.4% |
60.0% |
|
IND |
0-1 |
14.9% |
9.1 |
5.3% |
11.1% |
15.0% |
14.5% |
3.9% |
17.2% |
45.9% |
16.4% |
11.0% |
56.9% |
|
KC |
1-0 |
13.6% |
9.7 |
9.1% |
14.8% |
18.1% |
24.1% |
2.5% |
4.0% |
66.1% |
23.9% |
6.5% |
72.7% |
EWins: Expected wins
The four AFC North teams and the current projected other playoff teams are in this chart. As you can see (if you can through all the percent signs), FO predicts the Ravens and Steelers to have the best chances to make the playoffs. Why do they have the Steelers as the second best team in the league? A healthy defense and a better special teams, mainly.
Further down, there’s a chart with more percentages (yay!), this time with the chances that teams make it to certain stages of the playoffs/reach certain regular season milestones. Get ready to be blown away:
|
Team |
Reach Conference Finals |
Reach Super Bowl |
Win Super Bowl |
16-0 |
15-1 |
|
BAL |
40.5% |
24.3% |
14.8% |
0% |
1.3% |
|
PIT |
37.3% |
21.9% |
13.5% |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
NE |
31.9% |
17.0% |
9.6% |
0% |
0.5% |
|
GB |
30.5% |
17.4% |
8.6% |
0% |
0.3% |
|
ATL |
26.7% |
14.6% |
7.5% |
0% |
0% |
Unsurprisingly, their chances of winning the Super Bowl match their team rankings, because you would expect the best teams to have the best chance to win. Yes, they do have the Falcons as the fifth-best team league. I’m not really sure why either. What really shocked me was that the only team to reach 16-0 at least once in their simulations was none other than your Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, I certainly don’t expect them to go 16-0, and I’m sure Football Outsiders doesn’t either. I just thought that was an interesting observation.
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