Each week, I’ll reprint portions of the DVOA standings from Football Outsiders (this week’s link: here) and give analysis of the teams relevant to the Steelers’ fortunes
Are you ready for another update from those statistical rascals over at Football Outsiders? I sure am!
Are you ready for another update from those statistical rascals over at Football Outsiders? I sure am!
A quick reminder from last week: After week 1, the Steelers were the best in the AFC North from actual team performance, but were second to the Ravens after factoring in their preseason projections. However, the Steelers and Ravens were considered the two best teams in the NFL.
Want to know how the Steelers’ overall performance against the Titans changed FO’s rankings? Well you’ll have to jump it to find out!
And now for the chart:
| Team | VOA | Rk | Last | DAVE | Rk | Last | Offense | Rk | Last | Defense | Rk | Last | Special | Rk | Last |
| PIT | 17.8% | 9 | 13.5% | 24.5% | 3 | 25.5% | -31.9% | 27 | 0.0% | -41.2% | 1 | -12.4% | 8.6% | 4 | 1.0% |
| BAL | -8.2% | 22 | 8.8% | 21.6% | 4 | 29.2% | -37.1% | 30 | -32.1% | -33.0% | 3 | -45.5% | -4.0% | 24 | -4.5% |
| CIN | -5.9% | 20 | -50.4% | -3.5% | 20 | -7.4% | -1.9% | 15 | 20.9% | 0.8% | 17 | 52.5% | -3.2% | 22 | -18.8% |
| CLE | -2.3% | 18 | -18.6% | -16.0% | 26 | -18.6% | -15.5% | 21 | -9.6% | -19.2% | 9 | -17.0% | -6.0% | 27 | -8.8% |
Rk: Rank; Last: The previous week’s figure for that particular stat
For new readers, VOA stands for Value Over Average. So, through week 2, the Steelers have been 17.8% better than the average NFL team. DAVE stands for something too corny to repeat, and factors in Football Outsiders’ preseason projections.
I still can’t find individual game data on the Football Outsiders site, but this early in the season, you can still look at changes from week to week to glean something from the team’s performance that week. So, the Steelers performed well overall (of course, they won the game), and that good performance was all defense and special teams. It’s almost to the point where you don’t need a fancy chart to tell you that, but I’ll put it in here anyway.
The offense grades out about like you’d expect. The rushing offense (-7.1%) ranks 19th in the league, while the passing offense (-50.8%) ranks 30th. It’s almost pointless to analyze the offense right now, though, since the starting franchise QB is currently out and we know he’ll be back in game 5. It’s safe to say, though, that if Antwaan Randle El is at QB for more than two snaps next week, it’ll be this bad or worse. Interestingly, the injury-crippled offensive line is currently 29th in run blocking and 30th in pass blocking. Obviously, they need to improve if the offense is to get better, but how much of that is teams stacking up against the run because of the QB situation?
Everyone I’ve heard has called last Sunday one of the best defensive performances they’ve seen from the Steelers, and the stats bear that out. In one game, the defense went from a bit better than average to the best in the NFL. Currently, the Steelers rank first in rush defense (-54.6%) and seventh in pass defense (-32.4%).
The special teams jumped up from 16th in the league to fourth in the league. I’ll give you three guesses as to why, and the second and third don’t count (it is, of course, Antonio Brown.) Brown’s opening kickoff TD helped the Steelers be 6.2 points above average on kickoff returns. Jeff Reed’s kickoffs have also been good, at 2.0 points above average (I definitely remember hearing Bill Hillgrove say “a booming kickoff from Reed” at least once on Sunday).
Next Opponent: The Tampa Buccaneers are ranked as the third best team (31.6% VOA), but are 19th in DAVE (-0.7%). This of course can be explained by the fact that FO doesn’t start adjusting for opponents until week 4, and the Bucs’ first two opponents were the Browns and Panthers.
Playoff Odds: I’m toning down the playoff odds chart this week (way too many percent signs!). As a reminder, Football Outsiders produces these odds by first calculating the chance that a team wins each game, then simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times.
As a commenter pointed out last week, this method assumes that the result of one game has no effect on the result of the next, which I agree is kind of nebulous. It is possible for teams to be “streaky” or otherwise perform better or worse than expected for reasons other than luck. I’d guess the calculations try to take that into account, though, and of course with any set of odds, they’re bound to be wrong. Here’s the chart, at least for entertainment purposes:
| Team | Rec | DAVE | EWins | DIV | BYE | Wild Card | Total | Change |
| PIT | 2-0 | 24.5% | 11.2 | 66.6% | 49.5% | 20.4% | 87.0% | 5.2% |
| BAL | 1-1 | 21.6% | 9.9 | 29.7% | 19.9% | 34.4% | 64.1% | -22.6% |
| CIN | 1-1 | -3.5% | 7.1 | 3.5% | 1.3% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 5.9% |
| CLE | 0-2 | -16.0% | 4.8 | 0.2% | 0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | -0.5% |
| MIA | 2-0 | 16.0% | 10.3 | 48.9% | 28.5% | 21.3% | 70.2% | 10.2% |
| NE | 1-1 | 20.7% | 9.3 | 25.3% | 14.4% | 25.7% | 50.9% | -20.1% |
| IND | 1-1 | 17.7% | 9.8 | 61.0% | 23.6% | 8.6% | 69.6% | 12.7% |
| KC | 2-0 | 2.9% | 10.3 | 64.0% | 30.9% | 12.0% | 75.9% | 3.2% |
Change: Increase/decrease in total chance to make playoffs from previous week
With their 2-0 start, league-leading defense, and good preseason projections, the Steelers are now predicted by Football Outsiders to have the best chance to make the playoffs out of the entire AFC. Below is the same third chart as last week, with the chances to make certain playoff and regular season milestones:
| Team | Win Divisional Round | Win Conference | Win Super Bowl | 16-0 | 15-1 |
| PIT | 45.0% | 27.2% | 15.8% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| GB | 45.8% | 27.3% | 15.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| ATL | 36.9% | 20.9% | 11.9% | 0.2% | |
| IND | 25.8% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 0.1% | |
| MIA | 27.3% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 0.3% |
Again, take these numbers with a grain of salt. A cautiously optimistic grain of salt, but a grain nevertheless.
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