Each week, I’ll reprint portions of the DVOA standings from Football Outsiders (this week’s link: here) and give analysis of the teams relevant to the Steelers’ fortunes
As a reminder, DVOA measures the quality of a team compared to the average. Last week, the Steelers led the AFC North with a value of 17.8% better than the average team, and were third in the NFL when Football Outsiders factored in their preseason rankings.
Jump it real good for the juicy charts!
|
Team |
DVOA |
Rk |
Last |
DAVE |
Rk |
Last |
Offense |
Rk |
Last |
Defense |
Rk |
Last |
Special |
Rk |
Last |
|
PIT |
33.5% |
3 |
17.8% |
29.8% |
1 |
24.5% |
-8.4% |
19 |
-31.9% |
-33.7% |
1 |
-41.2% |
8.2% |
2 |
8.6% |
|
BAL |
-1.3% |
18 |
-8.2% |
16.7% |
8 |
21.6% |
-12.3% |
21 |
-37.1% |
-12.0% |
6 |
-33.0% |
-1.0% |
19 |
-4.0% |
|
CIN |
2.5% |
16 |
-5.9% |
-0.3% |
17 |
-3.5% |
-5.2% |
18 |
-1.9% |
-5.9% |
13 |
0.8% |
1.9% |
10 |
-3.2% |
|
CLE |
-6.6% |
19 |
-2.3% |
-14.3% |
25 |
-16.0% |
-3.0% |
16 |
-15.5% |
1.3% |
19 |
-19.2% |
-2.3% |
20 |
-6.0% |
Rk: Rank in NFL; Last: The number for that stat from last week’s rankings
All the AFC North teams had good performances last week to improve their ranking, except for Cleveland, which makes sense because they all won except for Cleveland. The Steelers used a very good offensive performance to extend their lead in DVOA in the division.
As you would expect with a good performance, both facets of the Steelers offense improved their rankings. The rushing offense is now seventh in the league, while the passing offense is up to 25th from 30th. Rashard Mendenhall now ranks fifth in DYAR, which is basically the value, in yards, that Mendenhall provides above what someone like Isaac Redman would do in a starting role.
The defense is still solid in both facets of the game. Their pass defense ranks third, at 29.4% better than average, and their run defense also ranks third, at 40.5% better than average. Their defensive line stats bear this out too, as their D-line is third at stopping the run, and fourth at getting to the quarterback.
Not much changed as far as special teams is concerned. Antonio Brown’s kick return TD against the Titans still seems to influence the kick return data, Jeff Reed’s kickoffs are still about 2.5 points above average, and everything else is around average. They would still have the best special teams in the NFL if not for Leon Washington of Seattle going off against the Chargers last week.
Okay, raise your hand if you thought the Browns would have the top-ranked offense in the AFC North by any measure through three weeks. Yeah, I didn’t think they would either. What also surprises me is that the Browns’ special teams are the worst in the division, and it’s being brought down by kick and punt returns. Whether that’s Josh Cribbs falling to earth, or really bad return blocking (more likely), it’s a concern for the team whose strength last year was its special teams.
This week’s opponent: The Baltimore Ravens, as you can see in the chart, currently have the worst offense in the division (not a surprise if you’ve seen Joe Flacco’s INT total), and the sixth-best defense in the NFL. It promises to be an even, well-fought game, as all Steelers-Ravens clashes are, that may very well be decided by special teams.
Playoff Odds: Here are those pesky playoff odds again, where Football Outsiders takes their rankings and uses them to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times.
|
Team |
Rec |
DAVE |
EWins |
DIV |
BYE |
Wild Card |
Total |
Change |
|
PIT |
3-0 |
29.8% |
11.7 |
70.6% |
51.6% |
18.8% |
89.4% |
+2.4% |
|
BAL |
2-1 |
16.7% |
9.9 |
23.7% |
14.4% |
38.2% |
61.9% |
-2.1% |
|
CIN |
2-1 |
-0.3% |
8.1 |
5.6% |
2.0% |
15.6% |
21.2% |
+9.5% |
|
CLE |
0-3 |
-14.3% |
4.8 |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
KC |
3-0 |
14.8% |
11.6 |
88.7% |
55.4% |
5.2% |
93.9% |
+18.0% |
|
IND |
2-1 |
19.7% |
10.3 |
71.1% |
25.5% |
8.2% |
79.3% |
+9.7% |
|
NYJ |
2-1 |
21.1% |
10.2 |
49.3% |
21.9% |
21.9% |
71.2% |
+22.4% |
|
NE |
2-1 |
23.7% |
9.7 |
30.7% |
14.8% |
28.2% |
58.9% |
+8.0% |
Change: Increase/decrease in total chance to make playoffs from previous week
The Steelers currently have the second-best chance to make the playoffs in the AFC. The Chiefs, surprisingly, are first, but that’s mainly due to the fact that they already have a 2-game lead over the rest of their division.
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