In one of the final weeks of the NFL regular season (and one of the final weeks of this series here at Optimum Scouting), we’ll take a look at two of the most surprising games of the weekend, even though a majority of the games this past NFL Sunday were shockers in themselves. The Packers lose their undefeated streak, while the Colts lose their DE-feated streak. A glorious day for the upsetting Chiefs and the saved-from-history Colts.
Also, we’ll look at the Detroit Lions massive comeback, a rookie receiver finally stepping up, and some Fantasy Notes for the fantasy championship week.
Any Given Sunday
Few NFL teams have less in common than the Green Bay Packers and the Indianapolis Colts. One team is the favorite to win the Super Bowl, the other finds themselves as the worst team in the league. In spite of their differences, the games they played on Sunday work together to prove that every game in the NFL is an unpredictable battle.
Before kickoff on Sunday, Green Bay’s chances at an undefeated regular season were considered by many to be a near lock. Their match up against the Kansas City Chiefs certainly wasn’t going to be a challenge – Kansas City was a franchise that had just fired its head coach, and every aspect of the team seemed to be in disarray. Meanwhile, the Packers were on a roll that was unrivaled this season, powered by an Aaron Rodgers led offense that seemed unstoppable. It wasn’t too much of a stretch to say that the Packers would win by doing little more than just showing up to Arrowhead Stadium.
However, things began to fall apart as soon as Green Bay took the field. In the first half, it became apparent that things just weren’t clicking for the Packers, especially on offense. A typically disciplined team committed uncharacteristic penalties, including two offensive pass interference penalties. The typically unflappable Rodgers succumbed to a surprising Kansas City pass rush, and the pressure knocked off the typically impeccable timing between Rodgers and his receivers.
On the other hand, the Chiefs couldn’t have asked for a better performance. The defense’s ability to shut down the Packers’ offense allowed Kansas City’s Kyle Orton to operate in a comfort zone, and he performed well. By the end of the game it was Orton with the impressive stat line, and not the previously red hot Rodgers. Orton outdueled Rodgers by throwing for 299 yards and a 74% completion rate.
The Packers tried to rally late in the game, but their first fourth quarter deficit of the season proved to be too much for Green Bay. The 19-14 loss ended their quest for perfection, but is it something for Packers fans to really be concerned about?
The biggest loss for the Packers was not on the score board, but on the offensive line. They lost both tackle Bryan Bulaga to a strained knee, and his backup Derek Sherrod broke his leg. Sherrod will miss the rest of the season, leaving Green Bay extremely thin along the offensive line. The offense line was a weakness that was exposed on Sunday, and teams will aim to exploit it for the remainder of the regular season and in the playoffs.
Compared to the Tennessee Titans, however, the Packers have nothing to worry about. Much like Green Bay, Tennessee went into their game against Indianapolis feeling like little more than showing up would land the Titans a win, and bring them to the verge of a wildcard berth.
The Colts were going to have none of that. They put together what was easily their best performance of the year. They shut down the Tennessee offense, rendering it almost completely ineffective through the entire game. The Colts’ Dan Orlovsky even had a surprisingly good game, including one outstanding touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne that served as the spark Indianapolis needed to finish the game.
It wasn’t the passing game that carried Indianapolis, but a surprisingly good running game. Donald Brown led the way with 161 yards, including a back breaking 80 yard touchdown run late in the game that ended all hopes the Titans had of winning the game.
For Tennessee, the poor performance probably doomed their season. They needed to win all three of their remaining games to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. And while it’s still mathematically possible for the Titans to get in, after seeing their play Sunday it’s hard to imagine that Tennessee will even win their final two games.
Surprise of the Week
In a week filled with upsets and bad outings by teams in desperate need of a win, one of the biggest surprises was the team that stepped up when crunch time when it needed it the most.
Over the last decade, “clutch” hasn’t been a word often used to describe the Detroit Lions. But as they found themselves 98 yards away from a touchdown they desperately needed to keep their playoff hopes alive, their two rising stars delivered a clutch performance Lions fans will be talking about for weeks to come.
Matt Stafford had no timeouts to work with on the season saving drive. But he did have Calvin Johnson, and Johnson would prove to be far more valuable. The Oakland Raiders knew that Johnson was going to be where Stafford wanted to get the ball. There was just nothing they could do about it.
On that final drive, Johnson caught three passes, including the game winning touchdown pass with just seconds remaining on the clock. It was a game Johnson dominated throughout: he ended the game with 214 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Stafford’s emergence may be most concerning for the rest of the league. While Johnson’s dominating presence has been a constant, Stafford has had an up and down season. If Stafford is propelled by his heroics, it could mean trouble for whoever their opponent is in the playoffs. When the two are clicking, Stafford and Johnson make up a duo that even the best defenses will struggle to contain. And if Sunday’s game winning drive is any indication, Stafford and Johnson are clicking at just the right time.
Rookie Watch
It might be too harsh to call Greg Little’s rookie season disappointing, but it’s certainly fair to say it’s been an underwhelming one. He’s suffered from mental lapses as well and inconsistent quarterback play, and he hasn’t done much to give fans hope that he will be a #1 receiver for Cleveland. While he’s made plenty of catches, he hasn’t shown the big play ability that Browns fans had been hoping to see.
However, he finally had his breakout performance on Sunday in Arizona. With Colt McCoy out with a concussion, Little stepped up in a big way for the Browns with 5 catches for 131 yards. The highlight of the day for Little was a 76 yard touchdown catch, which was the longest offensive play for the Cleveland in almost five years.
Little and the Browns came up short against the Cardinals in overtime, but the effort from their young receiver was promising. He finally allowed the game to come to him instead of trying to force plays, and it paid off. He showed the big play ability fans have been longing for, and he figures to only make more plays in the future.
Fantasy Notes
As we head into the championship weekend for most fantasy leagues (and if your championship is in week 17, you MUST change that next season, there’s no excuse for that), there are a multitude 
of strategies circulating on how to handle your line up in this all important week. The one I hear the most is that you should always “stick with who got you there”. Don’t tinker with your lineups, and play the guys that have been your studs throughout the year.
I can’t emphasis enough how hazardous this advice is. It’s more important than ever to focus on match ups when you’re setting your line ups this week. If you have a middle of the road starter at QB, with out a doubt you should go grab Matt Moore off the waiver wire and start him in a great match up against the New England defense. If you’re hurting at wide receiver, don’t be afraid to look at Santana Moss. He’s had a rough season, but he’s put up good WR3 numbers in the last couple of weeks and has another good match up against Minnesota.
Conversely, I’d be extremely hesitant to start Frank Gore on Sunday. He’s certainly lacking the explosion he had at the beginning of the season, and his match up against Seattle is not a friendly one. Just because Gore helped get you to the championship, doesn’t mean he’ll help you win it. You’ll be better off looking else where on Sunday.
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