What a wild start this NFL season is off to. Did anyone think that by week five Buffalo, Detroit, and San Francisco would have the same combined record as Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans? And who would have thought it would only take five weeks for panic to strike Philadelphia? Chris Johnson is leading one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, while Fred Jackson is the leagues third leading rusher.
It’s been an unpredictable start, and it’s bound to stay that way over the next few months. There’s a lot to keep track of, so let’s get started with this week’s recap.
Don’t Call the Patriots Favorites Just Yet
The New England Patriots’ 2010 season ended with a shocking home playoff loss to their division rival New York Jets. The loss raised questions about a struggling defense, and the Patriots’ lack of playmakers on either side of the ball. In the offseason, New England seemed to address those issues, signing plenty of big name free agents to try and make another run at the Super Bowl. And at a glance, it seems to have worked. Their win over the Jets Sunday, as well as their 4-1 start to the season, has satisfied many of the Patriots’ doubters. But is it too soon to crown New England as the team to beat in the AFC?
Without a doubt, the Patriots looked like a dominate team Sunday. They were, as usual, led by Tom Brady and Wes Welker, who connected five times for 124 yards. They had a surprisingly good running game as well, as BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a career best 136 yards and two touchdowns. The offensive production wasn’t anything new, and actually it was somewhat off of the blistering pace Brady and company had established in the first four weeks of the season.
The start the Patriots offense has had is absolutely astounding. Brady has thrown for almost 375 yards per game. Welker already has 740 yards receiving (almost 150 yards a game). As a team, they average almost 500 yards of offense per game and have scored 33 points a game. It’s an offense that will, barring injury, strike fear into any defense it faces for the rest of the year.
The New England defense has taken a lot of heat this year, but they stepped up on Sunday as well. While the offense had a more pedestrian (by their standard) game against the Jets, the defense had their best game of the year. They held the Jets offense to only 225 yards, by far the lowest total the Patriots have allowed this year. At time the defense was simply suffocating: the Jets went three and out on eight out of twelve drives.
With such a good performance in all phases, why am I still not ready to fully believe in the 2011 Patriots? It all starts with the defense. Sure, they played well on Sunday. But really, what defense hasn’t played well against the Jets? New York has a 28th ranked offense, and didn’t do anything to really test New England’s defense. A strong performance should have been the expectation, not a surprise. In fact, the fact that the good showing caught many off guard should illustrate just how bad the Patriots’ defense has been. Even after the game Sunday, they are still ranked dead last in total defense.
Even with the Patriots offense playing at a high level, you can not win in the playoffs without an at least respectable defense. With Brady and Welker firing on all cylinders, the Patriots don’t need to have a Steel Curtain level defense, but they need to be able to make stops consistently through a game. Without that, every game will be a shootout.
Don’t assume all is well with the Patriots’ offense, either. Obviously they’re playing well now, but almost all of that depends on Brady staying healthy. New England’s offensive line has three new starters, and allowed Brady to be sacked four times Sunday. Typically Brady is able to get the ball out before he’s sacked (he’s been sacked only eight times this season) but he’s not able to always avoid the hits. Brady has to be kept upright if the Patriots want to go all the way.
New England is certainly one of the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. But don’t count them as a lock to make it there. They have plenty of weaknesses, just like every other NFL team. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, only one team has Bill Belichick working to address those issues.
Surprise of the Week
After four weeks of chanting at games, complaining on talk radio shows, and plastering their demands, Denver Bronco fans got their way on Sunday. Tim Tebow replaced the incumbent starting quarterback Kyle Orton after Orton struggled to move the offense versus the San Diego Chargers. Prior to Sunday the Denver coaching staff and front office had seemed firm in their position that Orton was the best solution at quarterback, and the only solution they’d really even consider.
That all changed for the Broncos against the Chargers. As Orton couldn’t get anything going on offense, head coach John Fox realized his lethargic team was one half away from a 1-4 record, a near death sentence in today’s NFL. The Broncos players and fans needed a spark, and there was really only one player to look to in that situation. It was time for Tebow.
While putting Tebow in the game gave the crowd some much needed energy, it took more time for his presence to make an impact on the field. Early on Tebow struggled to take snaps under center cleanly. His footwork was bad, his accuracy was poor, and his release was painfully slow. He was showing everything that his detractors had pointed out all summer: Tebow looked raw, and didn’t look comfortable under center.
However, as the game went on, Tebow reminded Broncos fans why he was drafted in the first round. He has an uncanny ability to seemingly just will his team to a win. When he was put into the game, the Broncos trailed 23-10 and there was seemingly no chance of a comeback. And, of course, at the end of the game the Broncos did come up short. But the way he brought energy back to his team was truly remarkable.
His stats were far from impressive. He completed four out of ten passes for 79 yards and one touchdown, and carried the ball six times for 38 yards and a touchdown. Not inspiring on paper, but looking at the tape does offer some hope for his future. In the past Tebow showed a bad habit of making one read after dropping back, and if the first read wasn’t open he would look to run. Sunday was a different story for Tebow. While he didn’t look like a pure pocket passer, he showed flashes of being patient in the pocket and going through more that one read before abandoning the pass altogether.
John Fox is still declining to go ahead and name Tebow the starter for week seven (week six is the Broncos’ bye week), but there is no good reason for Tebow to not be the guy when they go to Miami to play the Dolphins. Denver is now sitting at 1-4, which is nearly impossible to bounce back from and make the playoffs. Although it was the previous regime that drafted Tebow, there was still a large investment made in him and the Broncos need to see what he can do long term. Additionally, the bye week will give Tebow an extra week to prepare for the start.
That’s not even counting the fact that the stage seems to be set for the Tebow to have a great game in Miami. The Dolphins have inexplicably decided to honor the 2009 Florida Gators team, who were lead of course, by Tim Tebow. Will he recapture the magic from his days as a Gator? If Fox gives him the chance, it certainly wouldn’t be surprising.
Rookie Watch
You often hear NFL veterans warn rookies about the “Welcome to the NFL” moment every player will experience in their first season. As Arizona rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson stood on the seven yard line, the only Cardinal standing between the Vikings All Pro running back Adrian Peterson and the end zone, you have to think he realize he was about to experience his moment. As the veteran carried the rookie the final seven yards to the end zone, it was clear Peterson wasn’t playing in the SEC anymore.
Patrick Peterson’s rookie season has been a roller coaster ride. In his first start, he was matched up against Carolina’s Steve Smith, who ended the game with 8 catches for 178 yards. In spite of the rough day on defense, it was his 89 yard punt return for a touchdown that won the game for the Cardinals, making his first start a success.
Peterson has looked good at times in coverage, grabbing one interception and deflecting several passes. He’s been picked on at times too, especially late in games. Prior to the draft, many said Peterson was the next shutdown corner in the NFL, comparing him to the likes of Darrelle Revis. While he’s not playing to the level Revis was in this stage of his career, it’s not out of the question to feel the Peterson is going to have a solid career as a cornerback.
Fantasy Notes
I’ll admit it. I’ve put off writing this for several weeks, hoping things would turn around. But five weeks into the season, it’s glaringly obvious: Chris Johnson is a shadow of his former self. The numbers speak for themselves. For his career, he’s averaged nearly five yards a carry and 93 yards per game. Through five games this season, he’s only been able to manage three yards a carry and 50 yards per game. He made a living in the past as a home run hitter, but this year his longest run has only been for 25 yards. Without the homerun threat, CJ2K doesn’t offer much as a between the tackles runner.
What’s the cause of Johnson’s lethargic start? Tennessee’s offensive line has certainly struggled to run block effectively, and the Titans were without their starting fullback Ahmard Hall for the first four games of the year due to a suspension. But you can’t put all of the blame on the blocking. Johnson has looked timid and indecisive when looking to hit holes. On the rare occasion that Johnson has gotten into open space, we haven’t seen any of the speed that took him to the record books early in his career.
It remains to be seen whether or not Johnson can return to his former self, or if the Titans made a big mistake in signing him to a big contract at the end of training camp. What is without doubt is that if you took the risk and took CJ, you’re likely in a very tough spot right now. It’s tough to bench a running back that has shown the brilliance that he has in the past. At the same time, starting him with his current production is almost wasting a roster spot.
There really is no good answer for what you should do if this is the situation you find yourself in. It’d probably be difficult to trade him for any kind of decent value at this point. Dropping him outright seems to be going overboard, as anyone you pick up on the waiver wire will not have anywhere near the potential that Johnson has. My advice? Stay the course. You’ve invested a high draft pick and the first five weeks of your season in Johnson. He may not be the player he used to be, but he’s still likely to pick up the pace sooner than later. He’s going to get the majority of the carries in Tennessee, and should be at least a serviceable starter soon.
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