Off the Rankings: Lynchpin Players for 2016

In this installment Off the Rankings, we’re going to take a look at the player’s whose individual performances will most impact their teams the most this season. If these guys excel, chances are the whole team will, but if they fail, the team will likely flounder as well.

Some are pitchers who are charged with leading staffs and others are hitters who are either the big bat or the most important supporting piece, but for all of these guys, pressure is going to be a fact of life in 2016.

Be sure to check out our other Off The Rankings posts as we’ll be providing great content all week and month leading up to Opening Day. Well also be providing great content after Opening Day, so check us out then too.

10.  Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Albert Pujols’ offensive decline has been well documented, it’s not new news that his OBP and AVG have dropped every year this decade and he’s no longer near the best hitter in baseball, as he was during his time in St. Louis. But just because Pujols is no longer capable of terrorizing the best pitchers in the game doesn’t mean he isn’t vitally important for the Angels’ chances this season.

There are two key reasons why Pujols is so important. First, and most importantly, the Angels lineup is pretty suspect beyond Mike Trout. Someone needs to protect and compliment baseball’s best player and there’s no obvious person besides The Machine. If Pujols is the one dimensional slugger he appeared to be last season, that would be (sad and disappointing but) fine, but he needs to be at least that much.

Second, the Angels have so much money sunk into Pujols that if he’s awful, they’re in trouble. Of course, this team probably won’t be good anyway but without some production from Pujols, this is going to be a disaster.

9. Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins

The Twins want to be this year’s 2014 Royals and come from nowhere to win the AL Central. They think they have the offense to do it and with Miguel Sano and others, they might be right. But I’m very suspicious about their pitching staff. Phil Hughes is the nominal ace but Santana is the most talented pitcher on the staff. Can he be 2013 Ervin and throw 200+ quality innings or will he be 2015 Ervin and struggle to stay healthy and effective.

8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks thought they were good last year. They were wrong. They think they’re good this year, we’ll see. Arizona has a much much much better pitching staff with Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller at the top, but they’ll need to hit too.

Goldschmidt is one of baseball’s quietest superstars and one of the game’s best hitters by any measure. There’s little doubt that he’ll hit if healthy. The bigger question is whether his offense will be enough to carry the team in a very tough NL West.

7. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals take a balanced approach to offense, they don’t tend to rely on any one hitter all that much. However, with the departure of Jason Heyward and the injury to Jhonny Peralta, the offense will need to come from somewhere. Holliday is likely to move to first base this year, a trouble position for the Cards in 2015. If he’s good, the team will be in much better shape to repeat as 100 game winners.

6. Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners

Cano got a boatload of money to come to Seattle and it has’t worked out very well. We all know he struggled last year, though he was much better at the end of the season when he was presumably healthy. With a new front office and manger in Seattle, the team will be eager to compete and shed its offensive struggles from the last few years. Given his ability and contract, Cano will have to be center of that. Seattle is one of those teams that could win the AL West or finish last; they have a very high ceiling and a comparably low floor. Robinson’s performance will go a long way toward determining which one they end up at.

5. Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers expect to compete for the title this year. They have Clayton Kershaw at the top of the rotation and a pitching staff heavily shaped by the new front office regime, a regime that was very successful running the show in Tampa. Whether or not the fans agree at this point, the Dodgers feel good about where they are.

Offense is where things could get hairy. Adrian Gonzalez is great but beyond him, LA is counting on a lot of guys who are either very young and without proven track records, or aging and unreliable. If Puig performs like he did last season, he’ll be putting even more pressure on the likes of Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier to cover for him, but if he gets back to 2014 Puig, or even the 2013 version of himself which took the league by storm, the Dodgers will be tough to stop.

4. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

Teixeira wouldn’t have made this list before Greg Bird went down with injury last month. The Yankees have a lot of question marks: Carlos Beltran, Chase Headley, Alex Rodriguez, Jacoby Ellsbury all need to play well for New York to keep pace with Toronto, Boston, Tampa, and Baltimore, but the difference with Tex is the lack of depth. At all those other positions, the Yankees have other options but at first, without Bird, its just Dustin Ackley if Teixeira can’t stay healthy or perform. I’d hoped the Yankees would go after Pedro Alvarez after Bird go hurt but the team clearly believes in Ackley and Tex. It seems unlikely he’ll repeat last season’s performance but the Yankees would be thrilled with just 80% of that.

3. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

We all know that Harper is great. His 2015 season was an All-Timer but the Nats still didn’t reach the playoffs, a major disappointment for a heavily favored club. Of course, Washington has a number of other big name, high expectation players. Given this team’s consistent history of failing to live up to expectations, if Harper isn’t spectacular, they might not have much of a chance.

2. Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox

Last year, Porcello was supposed to be one of the anchors of a well balanced Red Sox staff. That didn’t go well. This year, he’s supposed to be a middle of the rotation arm behind a bona fide ace in David Price, and that’s a role that suits him much better. If Porcello is solid and Price is Price, the Red Sox are looking at a pretty good top of the rotation, even if they can’t really count on Clay Buchholz. If he posts another 4.92 ERA over 28 starts, Boston will have a lot of trouble competing in a tough AL East.

1. Marcus Stroman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays are riding high after last year’s division championship and trip to the ALCS, despite losing ace David Price. They think they should be able to make another run deep into the playoffs and, given that they have baseball’s best offense, featuring the game’s best shortstop, two of the top power hitters, and the reigning AL MVP, they should be right.

However, the rotation wreaks of 2015 Red Sox. It’s a lot of ‘okay-not-great’ pitchers without a clear stopper. Besides Stroman. The Jays are counting on 5’8″ 24 year old to emerge as a front line starting pitcher, as THE front line starting pitcher, just a year removed from missing the vast majority of the season with a bad knee injury.

There is no doubt Stroman is great, and he threw 160 innings in 2014, but he’s never been counted on to be the top guy over the course of a season, let alone on a team that expects to legitimately compete. If he’s great, chances are the team will be ok. If he struggles, the rest of the staff is ill-equipped to pick up the slack.

-Max Frankel