Off The Rankings: Position Players Most Likely to Break Out

In this installment of Off The Rankings, we’ll be looking at the top 10 position players most likely to breakout this year.  Defining a “breakout” candidate is a little tough.  First, what are they breaking out of?  Certainly, none of them have been in jail.

Are these guys who have simply never produced at the major league level, but have a reasonable possibility of doing so in 2016? Are these prospects who have yet to affirm their status among the game’s stars? Or are these solid/good major leaguers who have yet to get their due? Are they post-hype prospects that are have been around the block and are comfortable enough to improve their production?

Settling on one definition isn’t so easy. The truth is that the answer is ‘yes’ to all of those questions above. Suffice it to say that these 10 guys should be on your radar this year as their production (or the media attention to it) will increase in the coming season.

The top 10 breakout hitters of 2016 (aka Sean’s fantasy sleepers of 2016):

10. Corey Dickerson, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rockies are going to regret the trade that sent Dickerson packing for Jake McGee.  Dickerson sports a career .879 OPS and crushed it even in the minors.  His problem has been injuries.  Plantar fasciitis sidelined him for most of 2015, but when the outfielder is in the lineup, he consistently produces.  With a move to the AL, where he can DH if things start ache, and a little luck warding off the injury fairy, Dickerson could be one of the top hitters in the majors this year. He has that kind of potential.

9. Randal Grichuk, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Randal Grichuk is a former first round pick, who simply hit 17 homers last year. He’s got impressive raw power and seems like he could benefit from the consistent playing time that is coming his way this year.  He’ll look to improve his on-base percentage, but maintaining last year’s pace across 600 plate appearances would net the 24-year old nearly 30 homers.  Grichuk figures to play some center field for the Cardinals and he figures to do it well.  He’s a real star in the waiting.

8. David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Peralta may have maxed out already, but he makes the list due to the press attention he’s due this coming season.  Since transforming from a pitcher in the Cardinals organization through working back through Independent ball, all Peralta has done is hit. Last year, he  managed a .936 OPS vs righties and clubbed 17 HRs to pair with a .312/.371/.522 slash line overall.  He still has some work to do against left handers, but even a repeat of last year would be an impressive step for the former pitcher.  Peralta is 28, but given his unusual path to the big leagues seems to have more growth potential than most sluggers his same age.  The Diamondbacks believe in themselves, and Peralta’s breakout would make them look smart.

7. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians shortstop was second in rookie of the year voting and got 13 first place votes, but it still feels like Francisco Lindor is underrated.  He slashed .313/.353/.482 last year and compiled 4.5 WAR in just the second half alone.  Lindor is 22 and deserves the same level of attention that Carlos Correa is receiving.  These two young shortstops represent the next generation of great shortstops.  I expect Lindor to step out of Correa’s shadow this year.

6. Adam Eaton, OF, Chicago White Sox

Eaton looked poised to have a breakout 2015 campaign, but was slowed by shoulder injury in spring training that didn’t seem to fully heal until the second half (and required offseason surgery).  He managed to play 153 games last year, up from his previous career high of 123 so the injury bug seems fond of Eaton.  He put together 3.1 WAR in the second half last year thanks to hitting .335, likely buoyed by a .412 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  But another solid year of near .800 OPS and Eaton could be on the way to All-Star status.

    5.Odubel Herrera, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Herrera was a Rule-5 selection and made the Phillies look very smart in his first season in the big leagues.  Across 537 plate appearances, Herrera posted a .297 AVG, .762 OPS and paired it with strong defense in center field.  Herrera is still just 24 and improved in the second half last year, by more than doubling his walk rate, and cutting down on his strikeouts.  Continued improvement from Herrera seems reasonable as he showed minimal platoon splits last year, and didn’t run as wild on the bases as his raw speed might enable.

4. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs handed Soler signed a 9-year, $30 Million deal back in 2012 and has a silky smooth right-handed swing to warrant such a contract.  At the time, many industry experts thought that Soler would be a better big leaguer than Yasiel Puig.  The young Cuban outfielder wasn’t entirely healthy last year and underperformed. Still just 24, Soler seems prime for the breakout year that sees his power stroke come together to provide the public with a better understanding of his potential.

3. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins

Yelich was a prime breakout candidate last year, but spent some time on the disabled list and never really delivered the home-run power that his 6’3 frame would suggest.  Still, Yelich turned a .264/.344/.366 batting line in the first half into a .342/.392/.473 line in the second half.  His strikeout total dropped, and he benefitted from a .402 BABIP in that second half, but all of the things that made him a breakout candidate in 2015- the athleticism, speed, smooth swing, and opportunity – all still apply.  He’s just 24 and some 8 months younger than the author, which makes me realize the growth still possible in Yelich’s game. If he adds a few more dingers, he’s a real star. I’m not the only one who thinks so either; here’s Jeff Sullivan inviting you to come fall in love with Christian Yelich’s potential.

2. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Polanco had a similarly disappointing 2015 campaign as Soler, but without the excuse of injury.  He’s a 24-year old former top prospect, who struck out a bit too much (121 strikeouts) and got caught stealing a bit too much (10 times).  The tools are there for Polanco, and as a 6’5” supremely athletic outfielder, there is reason to believe that he has simply been slow to develop.  Further, his OPS improved nearly 100 points from the first to second half last year, and that includes his poor month of September.

Polanco’s value, unlike Soler’s, is tied to more than just his power stroke.  With a significant step forward in production from any of his 5-tools, Polanco could go from a 2.6 WAR player to a 4.6 WAR player and be among the top 10 or so outfielders in the majors.

1. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox

The young Red Sox catcher came up last year amid unfair hype praising his athleticism and advanced approach at the plate.  The catcher position is so challenging in its unique demands to manage a pitching staff, while still producing at the plate.  Swihart seemed to figure it out in the second half as he hit .303/.33/.452 good for an .805 OPS that was nearly 200 points better than his first half.  He’s come into camp as the unquestioned starting catcher at just 23.  He could be a real star.

-Sean Morash