Frank Vogel begins his first season in Orlando with a confusing jumble of players. Can he make the pieces fit and create a successful NBA team?
The Orlando Magic pulled off an offseason of complete bewilderment.
Armed with a tremendous amount of cap space after trading away Tobias Harris at the trade deadline for expiring contracts, the Magic decided to stock the cupboard where it was already filled. Needing certain ingredients to bake a cake, they bought the same three ingredients they already had.
The Magic had a borderline All-Star at the center position in Nikola Vucevic, and paid huge money to Bismack Biyombo to either sit on the bench or displace Vucevic. Their best two young players were Victor Oladipo on the wing and Aaron Gordon at the 4. They traded Oladipo for another power forward, and then gave nominal power forward Jeff Green $15 million to complete the logjam. After giving C.J. Watson a long-term deal to be their backup point guard, they did the same with D.J. Augustin this offseason.
With a serious lack of depth on the wing, the Magic will be forcing players out of position. While there is hope for an elite defense, the offense could be one of the two or three worst in the league. Meanwhile, players the Magic discarded are blooming across the league – Tobias Harris, Maurice Harkless, Channing Frye.
Next offseason looms large for the Magic as Serge Ibaka, their best veteran player, hits free agency. To lose him for nothing would be disastrous, a complete discarding of assets for a one-year rental at a crowded position. To retain him means Aaron Gordon will be perpetually shoved to small forward, clearly not his best position.
But before next offseason arrives, the Orlando Magic have a season to play. They have a fan base with high hopes, and an ownership group with high expectations. To stave off disaster next July, the Magic have to keep it at bay while the games are being played. That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on one man to make things work – newly hired head coach Frank Vogel.
Who Is Frank Vogel?
Vogel comes to Orlando by way of Indiana, where he served as head coach for five seasons and took the Pacers to the playoffs for four of them. Focused around star wing Paul George, his Pacers teams embraced tough, gritty defense and emerged as the top Eastern Conference challenger to the Miami Heat as Boston aged away and Chicago fell apart due to injuries.
Prior to coaching the Pacers Vogel was an assistant coach or advanced scout for multiple franchises, from Boston and Philly to the L.A. Lakers. And prior to that, he was starring as a boy on David Letterman with a nifty toothbrush trick:
In Indiana, Vogel did not rely on tricks to coach a successful team. Instead he brought out the best in his players. He turned Roy Hibbert into the league’s best defensive center for a few seasons, introducing the basketball world to the term “verticality.” With George Hill and Paul George on the wing, his defenses were ferocious. Twice they ranked as the best in the league, and they never dropped below 10th.
It wasn’t just the best players that he coached up. He made the world believe Lance Stephenson was an All-Star player, racking up triple doubles and ear-blowing memes. Even more impressive, he made the world believe that Tyler Hansbrough was an NBA player. During his time as head coach of the Pacers, Frank Vogel was consistently one of the ten best coaches in the league.
That did not stop Larry Bird from firing him to “go in a new direction.” While the Pacers retool their team, Vogel comes to Orlando to work his magic. And he has a lofty test before him.
Making Lemonade with a Lot of Lemons and No Water
Frank Vogel has been handed a roster of irregular pieces and told to make a seamless work of art. Whether or not he can do so is one of the most challenging tasks awaiting any coach this season, up there with Dave Joerger connecting with DeMarcus Cousins and Steve Kerr installing a trophy case big enough for all of the championships he is about to win.
Three specific problem areas occur. First, Vogel has to figure out his big man rotation. The roster holds five players with either the talent or the contracts to receive major minutes in the frontcourt. Who should start at center? And how many minutes does each player get?
Bismack Biyombo broke out in a big way during the playoffs, and provides the defensive impact Vogel has looked for as a head coach. But pairing Biyombo with Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon closes down the spacing in a big way. Start Nikola Vucevic, and the Magic are paying Biyombo $17 million to come off the bench.
At power forward, Serge Ibaka is going to start. Does that mean Aaron Gordon is starting at the 3? And how many minutes is Jeff Green going to get? Things get even more complicated if Vogel wants to play any minutes with Biyombo and Vucevic together, a pairing that on the surface seems like an idea worth trying.
And what if the Magic go hyper-athletic with Ibaka at the 5 and Gordon at the 4? That’s a combination Vogel has to try, but who is giving up minutes at center to let him do so? There are only 48 minutes available at power forward and another 48 at center, and this roster needs about twice that.
Secondly, Vogel needs to determine who plays minutes on the wing. The starters will most likely be Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. Gordon ideally would be playing at the 4, but there is no room, and this team has exactly 0 viable small forwards. Mario Hezonja can back up either spot, but his development into an NBA player has been slow.
After that, the options on the wing are slim. Jodie Meeks may never be back and healthy, and no one knows if he has any gas left in the tank after one above-average season in his career. The team has an extra point guard lying around now, but playing either Augustin or Watson at the 2 would be poking a hole in the defense. Neither has the off-ball skills to play alongside Elfrid Payton in the backcourt.
That brings up the third problem before Vogel – what to do at point guard. Elfrid Payton was drafted No. 10 overall to be the point guard of the future for the Magic. Instead he has turned in two sub-par years to begin his career, posting below-average PER and making a net negative impact during his minutes on the court.
Last season Payton shot 43 percent from the field, and only 30 percent from long-range. While he racks up assists, that’s more a function of the ball being in his hands every single possession. He has shown only brief glimpses of a player who can start long-term in the NBA.
The Magic have no ready option behind him. D.J. Augustin was just signed for over $7 million, but he is not a starting point guard either. He has been best in his career coming off the bench and running the second-team offense for short stretches. Hand him anything more and the wheels fall off. C.J. Watson is making $5 million, but was so bad last year the Magic felt they had to bring in Augustin. Both backup points played previously for Vogel in Indiana, but familiarity only gets you so far in this league.
Vogel has the challenge of making an offense helmed by Payton reach something resembling functional. Defenses collapse on Payton, daring him to shoot. With Aaron Gordon at the 3, the problem will be even more compounded. Vogel needs one of the two to develop a decent jumpshot.
With the offseason of 2017 looming and numerous players on the team destined to be unhappy with their role, Vogel has to make the pieces fit. Perhaps the front office will help him out and trade Evan Fournier to Sacramento for Kosta Koufos and Garrett Temple.
In the end, Vogel will not be fired at the end of this year. He is a great coach just starting to make his imprint in Orlando. But whether or not he can make all of these irregular pieces fit together is the biggest question awaiting this team. And that makes him the Orlando Magic’s X Factor this year.
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