With the Pittsburgh Pirates on fire right now and back in the race for a postseason spot, the next few days are going to play a pivotal role on what general manager Neal Huntington does come July 31.
Win three or four from the New York Mets and Huntington should be a buyer.
Lose three or four to the Mets and Huntington might want to get back into sell mode.
Then there’s always the option of staying pat and not tinkering with a team that is playing well at the moment.
But hypothetically, let’s just say the Bucs win three of four from the Mets.
That keeps them right in the race and Huntington will have to improve the team because all the teams around him are going to make an attempt to get better.
But it’s not that strong of a deadline and with Manny Machado already dealt (not that Huntington would have been in on him), how many guys on the block truly make this team better?
That brings me to Tampa Rays’ starter Chris Archer, a guy that a lot of people think the Pirates should be in on.
But should they really?
The Market for Archer
Teams have been checking in on Archer and despite the Rays sitting at 52-50 on the season, they would be wise to listen as Archer is the one guy that could net them a haul of young talent.
Update on Chris Archer trade market: At least 8 teams have shown interest, with #Cubs, #Phillies, #DBacks and #Padres among the clubs scouting his start on Sunday. Full story: https://t.co/jstZh3zRRX @MLB @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2018
But with teams like the Cubs, Phillies Diamondbacks and even the Padres reportedly in on Archer, can the Pirates compete for his services.
It already appears that some teams aren’t willing to give up top prospects.
Per @jonmorosi, #Padres among the teams interested in #Rays' Chris Archer and have refused to include Tatis Jr. or Gore in initial offers, but are believed to be willing to part with one or two of the next three prospects on their top 30 list: https://t.co/eosjpYq3sj pic.twitter.com/kFVaspN7aQ
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 25, 2018
Should the Pirates?
Why Archer Makes Sense
The Pirates need a top of the line starter and Archer could fill that void.
Despite some declining numbers the past couple of seasons, Archer would at the least be the Bucs second best pitcher.
Only Jameson Taillon (3.44) has a better FIP than the 3.50 Archer has on the season.
Archer posts a better FIP that current Pirates starters Joe Musgrove (3.89), Trevor Williams (4.42), Ivan Nova (4.57) and Nick Kingham (4.67).
Add in the fact a switch to the NL and getting out of the AL East would be a blessing and pitching in PNC Park should do nothing but help Archer.
Slotting Archer into the Pirates rotation improves them not only for this season, but the future as well.
Archer is controllable, which is big for the Pirates front office.
He is set to make $7.6 million next season, which is a bargain for a top of the rotation starter. Archer then has team options for $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021.
That alone makes me have interest in Archer. If he helps the Pirates for 2-3 seasons, he can still be flipped in 2021 if necessary.
The contract is right, but is the pitcher?
Why Not Archer?
The overall numbers aren’t great, even though he is coming off a 13 strikeout performance in his last start.
He currently sits at 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.378 WHIP. His stakeouts per nine are also the lowest in the last four seasons at 9.9, which is down from the 11.1 last season.
Archer does rank ninth in MLB history with an average of 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings, which is impressive in its own right, especially in the division he plays in.
The 13 K performance his last time out gives you hope that the K’s being down isn’t too much to worry about.
More disturbing though is Archer hasn’t had an ERA below four or posted a WAR above 2.0 since 2015.
The question the Pirates, and other teams for that matter, have to answer is how much of that is attributed to pitching in a loaded division and on a bad team and how much of that is a real concern?
What would it cost?
A lot.
It’s likely going to take an Austin Meadows and a couple other big pieces to even get bin the conversation.
I don’t think I would include Mitch Keller, but I wouldn’t have a problem dealing anyone else in the system right now.
Would a package that starts with Meadows, Shane Baz, Cole Tucker and another piece or two get the Pirates in the conversation?
Probably, but they still would likely have to do better.
I only move Meadows in a deal that can net me someone that could realistically help the Pirates win in the next three or four years.
Archer might be that guy.
He doesn’t have to win a Cy Young or even be an ace.
Realistically, he just would have to be better than what the Pirates have right now and he would be from the minute he walked through the door.
A rotation that started with Taillon, Archer and Keller would be very nice going forward.
Of course the Rays don’t have to deal Archer at the deadline.
He’s affordable and they may get more at a later date.
Archer seems like a guy that if he’s going to be dealt, will be traded in the offseason.
While that may be true, it doesn’t mean the Pirates can’t try and pry him away now.
I don’t see it happening, but if Huntington wanted to make a splash move, Archer could be the guy.
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