The New York Yankees open up their postseason today when they square off with the Orioles in Baltimore at 6:07 PM. After fending off the O’s September push and avoiding the one-game Wild Card playoff, the Yanks take home field advantage as the two division rivals face off in what should be an epic series. On one side sits Buck Showalter, the ex-Yankee, presumptive manager of the year (unless Bob Melvin has anything to say about it), who has put on a season long clinic on how to do more with less, and has managed circles around the league just to get this far. On the other side is Joe Girardi, probably the most privileged manager in baseball. Unlike Showalter, Joe mostly just sits back and lets his well paid, experienced stars do what they do best.
When the O’s suffer an injury, they dig around the dregs of the league and find some castoff for Buck to turn into a productive member of the team (see Saunders, Joe). When the Yankees suffer an injury, they scoop up a veteran slugger (McGehee, Casey) or just go to their backup All-Star (Soriano, Rafael).
Today, however, I propose that Girardi and the Yankees engage in some acutal managing and hit Robinson Cano–currently the team’s best hitter complete hitter–fourth rather than third. Yes, conventional wisdom puts a guy with Cano’s offensive profile in the three hole, but conventional wisdom goes only so far. Just ask Buck Showalter.
In September, Robinson Cano hit .347 in support of a rotation that is not as strong as Yankees fans would like, and helped to fuel the Yanks past the O’s. Over his last 27 at bats, Cano’s got 16 hits, and over his last 40, he’s got 24. He’s hitting almost .700 in his last 9 games and he seems to square everything up these days. He’s an animal. But he can’t win this series alone.
Alex Rodriguez is the key to the Yankees victory in the ALDS and the key to their continued success going forward. I wouldn’t say that they can’t win the World Series without a productive A-Rod, but it would be awfully difficult. They need to get A-Rod going.
Rodriguez hit .261 over the last month of the season and hasn’t hit a home run in roughy three weeks. He had another down season posting 18 homers and 51 RBIs in 2012 and has continued his shockingly steep downward spiral, going from the games’ best player to its most overpaid in two years. That said, I believe he still has the potential to carry the team if he gets on a tear, and I think sticking him in front of the incredibly hot hitting Cano will get him the fastball strikes he needs to get his power, and bat in general, going.
That brings us to the five spot; who to stick behind Cano to protect him. If I’m making the lineup for the 27 time World Champions, I’ve got Nick Swisher hitting behind Cano. Really,this is based on consistency and the general Swisher approach. The other option behind Cano, Mark Texiera, is an all-or-nothing behemoth of a man prone to strikeouts and coming off an injury that limited him to exactly one game in September. Swisher sports a better OBP and has the gap-to-gap power to really produce runs when guys get on in front of him. Behind the slow footed Cano, I’m a bigger fan of Swisher’s stroke than Mark Texiera’s upper cut, though they both ground into their fair share of twin killings. I firmly believe that Swisher in the five hole gives the Yankees the better chance to produce runs.
(I understand that there is a growing contingent who think that lineup protection is a myth and have some pretty compelling numbers to back it up, but if it isn’t clear already, I disagree. I think pitchers treat hitters differently based upon who is hitting behind them in the order. I don’t think that’s too much of a stretch. Is it a total coincidence that Miguel Cabrera hit for the Triple Crown the first year Prince Fielder hit behind him?)
Finally, that leaves Tex in the six spot, a luxury just about any team in baseball would love to have, and provides some really good length to the order. Though I don’t think he’s the right call in the five hole, he’s clearly still one of baseball’s best pure hitters when he’s going, and stacking switch hitters will make life just that much harder for Buck and his bullpen (though if anyone can get bullpen-creative, it’s Showalter).
So, with A-Rod 3rd, Cano 4th, Swish 5th, and Tex 6th, here’s my game 1 lineup for the Yanks against O’s righty Jason Hammel:
- Derek Jeter
- Curtis Granderson
- Alex Rodriguez
- Robinson Cano
- Nick Swisher
- Mark Teixeira
- Raul Ibanez (DH)
- Russel Martin
- Ichiro Suzuki
Let’s see what Girardi comes up with and how close I got.
-Max Frankel. Sean Morash contributed to this post.
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